Dow Inc. (DOW) Stock Forecast and News Today: Dividend Reset, Legal Risks and 2026 Recovery Hopes

Updated: December 11, 2025

Key Takeaways

Share price: Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) has bounced to about $24–25 per share after a sharp two‑day rally, but the stock is still more than 40% below its 52‑week high near $42. ^[1]
2025 so far: Year to date, Dow shares have fallen roughly 40–42%, reflecting weak commodity pricing, oversupply in key chemicals and a controversial dividend cut earlier this year. ^[2]
Latest earnings (Q3 2025): The company posted a smaller‑than‑expected loss (operating EPS –$0.19 vs a larger loss expected), strong cash generation and visible benefits from cost cuts and new U.S. Gulf Coast assets – but revenue and margins are still well below 2024 levels. ^[3]
Dividend reset: After halving its quarterly dividend from $0.70 to $0.35 in July, Dow has confirmed a $0.35 payout on December 12, 2025, implying a dividend yield of about 6%+ at current prices, but also attracting class‑action litigation and bearish commentary on dividend sustainability. ^[4]
Street view: Most analysts rate DOW a “Hold” with modest 10–20% 12‑month upside based on average price targets in the $26–$28 range, while warning about polyethylene oversupply, European weakness and cyclicality. ^[5]

What follows is a deep dive into where Dow Inc. stands today – on fundamentals, valuation, dividend safety and 2026 recovery prospects.

Dow Stock Price Today: A Bounce off Deep Lows

Dow Inc. shares closed around $24.59 on December 10, up roughly 6.4% on the day and marking a second straight session of gains that outpaced the broader market. ^[6]

Despite that rebound, the stock remains around 40–45% below its 52‑week high in the low‑$40s, reached last December, underscoring how brutal 2025 has been for holders. ^[7]

Recent performance in context:

Over the past month, DOW has gained roughly 3–4%, lagging the broader Basic Materials sector but modestly outperforming the S&P 500. ^[8]
Year‑to‑date, shares are down about 41.6%, according to Simply Wall St’s analysis, a drawdown that dwarfs most large‑cap peers. ^[9]
An Investing.com dividend note pegs the 2025 decline at “over 40%”, aligning with that estimate. ^[10]

All this is happening against a supportive macro backdrop: the Federal Reserve has cut rates three times in 2025, bringing the fed funds target range down to 3.5–3.75% and helping push major indices toward record highs. ^[11]

In other words: the market has recovered, but Dow Inc. hasn’t – which is exactly why the stock has become a magnet for both deep‑value bulls and hard‑nosed skeptics.

From Dividend Darling to Deep Value: The 2025 Plot Twist

The turning point came in July 2025, when Dow reported a much weaker‑than‑expected second quarter and took a machete, not a scalpel, to its payout.

According to a class‑action complaint summarized by the Portnoy Law Firm:

Q2 2025 non‑GAAP loss per share:–$0.42, versus analyst expectations around –$0.17 to –$0.18.
Net sales:$10.1 billion, down 7.3% year‑on‑year and about $130 million below consensus.
Weakness showed up across all operating segments, not just in a single troubled niche. ^[12]

Management simultaneously announced that it was cutting the quarterly dividend in half, from $0.70 to $0.35 per share, citing the need for “financial flexibility” in a “persistently challenging” environment. Dow’s stock promptly fell more than 17% on the news, according to the complaint. ^[13]

The lawsuit alleges that Dow had overstated its ability to manage macro and tariff headwinds and keep supporting the old dividend, while understating the severity of competitive and pricing pressures, weakening demand and oversupply in its markets. ^[14]

Regardless of how the litigation plays out, the narrative changed overnight:

Before the cut, Dow was often treated as a steady, high‑yield chemicals stalwart.
After the cut, it has been repriced more like a highly cyclical, capital‑intensive commodity player where the dividend is no longer sacrosanct.

That change in perception is crucial to understanding how analysts and investors are looking at the stock today.

Q3 2025 Results: Losses Shrink, Cash Flows Improve

Fast‑forward to Q3 2025, reported on October 23. The headline was simple: the loss was smaller than feared, and cash generation was better than expected, but pricing and margins were still under heavy pressure.

Key numbers from the company’s earnings release and subsequent coverage: ^[15]

Net sales: about $10.0 billion, down 8% year‑over‑year, and roughly 1% lower sequentially.
Volumes: down 1% versus a year ago, with weakness in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India (EMEAI) partly offset by gains in the U.S., Canada and Asia‑Pacific.
Local prices: down 8% year‑over‑year and 3% sequentially, reflecting broad pressure across the chemicals chain.
GAAP net income:$124 million;
GAAP EPS:$0.08 per share.
Operating EPS:–$0.19, an improvement from –$0.42 in Q2 2025, and better than consensus, which was looking for a deeper loss (around –$0.29 to –$0.30).
Operating EBIT:$180 million, down sharply from $641 million a year earlier, but up $201 million vs the previous quarter.
Operating EBITDA:$868 million vs $1.38 billion a year ago.
Cash from operations (continuing ops):$1.13 billion, up $330 million year‑over‑year and up $1.6 billion sequentially, helped by working capital improvements and advance payments.

A few segment details give texture to those numbers: ^[16]

Packaging & Specialty Plastics (P&SP)
- Net sales $4.9 billion, down 11% year‑on‑year.
- Local prices –10%, volumes –1%.
- Operating EBIT $199 million, down $419 million vs last year, but up strongly sequentially, helped by higher integrated margins and the new polyethylene unit in Freeport, Texas.
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure (II&I)
- Net sales $2.8 billion, down 4% year‑on‑year, but up 2% sequentially.
- Local prices –8%, volumes +2% year‑on‑year.
- Operating EBIT still negative but improved, aided by a new alkoxylation unit in Seadrift, Texas and lower maintenance activity.
Performance Materials & Coatings (PM&C)
- Net sales $2.1 billion, down 6% year‑on‑year; prices –5%, volumes –2%.
- Operating EBIT fell $60 million vs the prior year and $72 million sequentially, with margin compression in upstream siloxanes.

Management’s Message: Cost Cuts and New Capacity

CEO Jim Fitterling highlighted that Dow delivered sequential improvements in earnings and cash flow despite industry‑wide pressure, crediting: ^[17]

cost discipline,
new polyethylene and alkoxylation capacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast, and
resilient demand in certain end markets, including flexible packaging and energy‑related applications.

Fitterling and CFO Jeff Tate reiterated a major cash‑support and cost‑reduction program:

Dow plans more than $6.5 billion in “near‑term cash support”,
including about $1 billion of capex reductions in 2025 and
at least $1 billion in annual cost reductions by the end of 2026, focusing on purchased services and contract labor. ^[18]

But the near‑term guidance remains cautious:

Dow expects Q4 2025 net sales of around $9.4 billion, below analyst expectations of roughly $10.1 billion,
and warns that challenging market conditions will persist, particularly in EMEAI, where Asian exporters are redirecting volumes away from the U.S. due to anti‑dumping duties. ^[19]

In short: Q3 showed Dow can cut costs and generate cash, but has not yet escaped the gravity of a weak pricing environment.

Dividend Reset: 6%+ Yield, But Not a Free Lunch

Despite the mid‑year cut, Dow is still paying a substantial dividend – just off a lower base.

Key facts:

Dow’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, payable December 12, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 28; the ex‑dividend date was November 26. ^[20]
At recent prices around $24–25, that implies a forward yield in the 5.5–6.0% range, depending on where the stock trades. ^[21]
Dow emphasizes that this marks the 457th consecutive dividend paid by the company or its affiliates since 1912 – a statistic aimed squarely at income‑oriented investors. ^[22]
In Q3 alone, Dow returned $249 million to shareholders via dividends. ^[23]

However, that yield comes with context:

The July cut was drastic (–50%), not cosmetic, and was accompanied by a warning about a “lower‑for‑longer earnings environment” and oversupply pressures. ^[24]
A Morningstar note on Dow’s earnings and dividend argued that industry oversupply justifies a lower fair value estimate and raises the risk of further dividend strain, even after the cut. ^[25]
The class action lawsuit explicitly claims that Dow overstated its ability to support the prior higher dividend, which will keep legal and reputational risk on the radar into 2026. ^[26]

Investors who focus on the headline yield without considering those underlying pressures are effectively ignoring the plot.

What Wall Street Thinks: Mostly “Hold” with Mid‑$20s Targets

Across brokerages and data providers, the dominant rating on DOW is “Hold”, with price targets clustering modestly above the current share price.

Snapshot of recent consensus data:

MarketWatch aggregates 25 analyst ratings with an average recommendation of Hold and an average price target around $26.8. ^[27]
StockAnalysis.com reports 15 analysts covering DOW, also with a Hold consensus and a $27.13 average 12‑month price target (range $22–$37), implying roughly 10% upside from around $24.59. ^[28]
MarketBeat compiles 22 analyst targets with an average of $28.84 (high $42, low $20), suggesting about 17% upside versus the low‑$24s. ^[29]
TipRanks shows a broader coverage universe with mostly Hold ratings (only a handful of Buys and a couple of Sells) and a mean target around $26–27. ^[30]
Public.com / StocksGuide similarly cites a Hold consensus and a $27.13 target for 2025. ^[31]

On earnings expectations:

A recent Zacks / Nasdaq piece notes that analysts expect Q4 2025 revenue around $9.53 billion, about 8.5% below the same quarter last year.
For the full year 2025, the Zacks consensus calls for EPS of about –$0.99 and revenue of $40.03 billion, down 6.8% year‑on‑year. ^[32]
Yahoo’s estimates page (based on multiple analysts) points to a small loss again in 2026, but much closer to break‑even, with average EPS around –$0.03. ^[33]

Put differently: Wall Street largely sees another tough year in 2025, followed by a muted recovery into 2026, not a V‑shaped surge.

Broker Moves: Supportive but Cautious

Individual broker calls highlight both the appeal and the risks of DOW at current levels.

Recent moves collated by Intellectia and TipRanks include: ^[34]

RBC Capital raised its price target to $27 from $24, maintaining a “Sector Perform” rating. RBC praised the Q3 earnings beat, driven mainly by cost reductions and higher operating rates in Packaging & Specialty Plastics, but warned that these gains could be transitory and reaffirmed caution on commodity chemical names.
Goldman Sachs nudged its target to $27 from $24, keeping a Neutral stance, signaling modest confidence in the cost‑cut story but no strong conviction on a rapid up‑cycle.
Bank of America lifted its target to $26 from $24, also staying Neutral.
Mizuho cut its target to $25 from $26, keeping the stock at Neutral and citing ongoing weakness following earnings.
Citi lowered its target to $23 from $25 and maintained a Neutral rating, flagging weakening polyethylene (PE) demand and discounting. The bank notes that contract discounts in PE point to a negative setup for PE‑exposed names into 2026. ^[35]

In short, recent broker commentary can be summarized as:

“We see some upside from cost cuts and a depressed starting point, but we’re not yet convinced the cycle has turned.”

Polyethylene Pain and European Restructuring: The Big Headwinds

Several overlapping headwinds explain why 2025 has been so punishing.

1. Oversupply and Weak Pricing in Key Chains

Citi, Morningstar and others have focused on oversupply in polyethylene and other commodity chemicals, which has: ^[36]

pushed prices down high single digits year‑on‑year,
compressed integrated margins, especially in Packaging & Specialty Plastics, and
made it harder for Dow to pass through costs.

Dow’s own Q3 numbers show:

Local prices down 8% overall;
P&SP local prices down 10%;
significant hits to segment operating EBIT versus 2024, especially in packaging and upstream olefins.

2. Regional Pressure in Europe, Middle East, Africa and India (EMEAI)

Management has been unusually blunt about EMEAI:

Asian exporters, facing dumping duties in the U.S., are rerouting product into Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India, intensifying price competition. ^[37]
Dow has launched a strategic review of European assets and expects that shutdowns and portfolio actions could deliver around $200 million in adjusted core profit uplift beginning in mid‑2026. ^[38]

Those moves may improve profitability later, but they also highlight how structurally squeezed some of Dow’s legacy footprint has become.

Valuation: Undervalued Deep Cyclical or Value Trap?

Because the fundamentals are so cyclical, valuation opinions on Dow are scattered.

Simply Wall St: Two Stories, Two Fair Values

A December 10 Simply Wall St piece captures the split view: ^[39]

It notes that Dow’s share price is down about 41.6% year to date, with a modest 3.7% gain over the last month.
One “most popular narrative” assigns a fair value of $27.82 per share, suggesting Dow is around 17% undervalued at roughly $23.11. That narrative assumes cost cuts and margin recovery can drive higher earnings.
A more conservative discounted cash flow (DCF) model, however, puts fair value closer to $13.86, which would make the stock look overvalued at current prices if cash flows remain heavily cyclical.

The article also highlights Dow’s target of at least $1 billion in annual cost reductions by 2026, aimed at improving margins despite a tough macro backdrop.

Other Voices: Rebound vs. Structural Risk

A Seeking Alpha analysis from two months ago emphasized that Dow’s share price had been “crushed 56%” amid high costs and weak demand, but argued that the company is positioned for a powerful rebound as the cycle turns, positioning DOW as a contrarian buy. ^[40]
By contrast, Morningstar’s oversupply‑focused note ties its reduced fair value estimate to industry capacity additions and the earlier dividend cut, effectively warning that cash returns to shareholders may remain constrained if oversupply persists. ^[41]

So depending on which lens you use, Dow can look:

Cheap vs. normalized earnings and analyst targets, or
Pricey vs. a pessimistic DCF that assumes the cycle stays weak longer than bulls expect.

Earnings and Stock Outlook Into 2026

Pulling the threads together, the current consensus outlook for Dow Inc. looks something like this:

2025: Another down year
- Revenue projected around $40 billion, down roughly 7% vs 2024.
- Full‑year EPS expected around –$1.00. ^[42]
- Q4 guidance from management ($9.4 billion in sales) sits below street forecasts, reinforcing the downbeat tone for the near term. ^[43]
2026: Near break‑even, with help from cost cuts
- Analysts expect significantly smaller losses or near‑zero EPS as cost reductions, capex cuts and selective capacity additions start to bite. ^[44]
- European restructuring and the ramp‑up of U.S. Gulf Coast assets could create operating leverage if volumes stabilize.
Macro wildcard: Fed cuts vs. oversupply
- The Fed’s rate‑cutting cycle should, in theory, support industrial demand and capital spending over time. ^[45]
- But if PE oversupply and aggressive Asian competition persist, price recovery could lag the macro upswing.
Legal and dividend overhang
- The class action centered on dividend sustainability and disclosure adds legal risk, even if damages ultimately prove limited. ^[46]
- The new $0.35 dividend looks more defensible than the old $0.70 payout, but high yields in cyclical commodities often signal elevated risk, not a free lunch.

How the Risk/Reward Looks Right Now

At roughly $24–25 per share with consensus targets in the mid‑to‑high $20s, Dow screens as a moderate‑upside, high‑uncertainty deep cyclical:

Bull case: Cost cuts hit full stride, PE supply/demand improves, European restructuring boosts margins, and the Fed‑driven global recovery lifts volumes. In that world, the current price plus a 6%+ yield could be attractive, and the stock could plausibly drift back toward $30+ over a multi‑year horizon. ^[47]
Bear case: Oversupply and weak pricing linger longer than expected, further impairing earnings power. Legal actions and capital needs keep a lid on shareholder returns, and the recent dividend becomes the ceiling rather than the floor. In that world, a more pessimistic fair value in the mid‑teens, like the DCF view, cannot be ruled out. ^[48]

As always, investors need to align any view on DOW with their risk tolerance, income needs and time horizon. Dow Inc. today is not the low‑drama dividend stalwart it once appeared to be; it is a levered bet on a recovery in global chemical margins, buffered by cost cuts and a slimmed‑down but still hefty dividend.