New York, January 8, 2026, 13:49 EST — Regular session
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) rose 0.6% to $492.73 in afternoon trade on Thursday, tracking a gain in the Dow as investors bought steady “old economy” names and trimmed big tech. The Dow was up 304 points, or 0.6%, around midday, while the Nasdaq slipped as heavyweight tech stocks fell. “It’s too soon to call it a broadening of the rally beyond tech stocks,” said Joe Saluzzi, partner and co-founder at Themis Trading. 1
The shift matters because the Dow is still hovering not far from 50,000 after a record close earlier in the week, and traders are trying to read whether leadership is finally spreading out. Stocks are also heading into the next set of labor readings with valuations still rich by recent standards, a setup that can punish crowded trades fast. 2
Wednesday’s pullback showed how jumpy the tape is near record highs. The Dow fell 0.94% to 48,996.08, even as the Nasdaq eked out a gain, after job openings dropped more than expected and private payrolls data came in soft ahead of Friday’s government jobs report. 3
Politics and policy are leaking into sector moves again. Defense shares jumped after President Donald Trump called for a $1.5 trillion U.S. military budget in 2027, up from $901 billion approved for 2026, a proposal that would still need Congress. The rebound came a day after an executive order threatened to block dividends and buybacks at defense contractors until weapons production improves. 4
On the data side, weekly jobless claims rose 8,000 to 208,000, while continuing claims climbed to 1.914 million, pointing to a labor market with limited hiring and limited firing. A separate report showed third-quarter productivity jumped at a 4.9% annualized rate, and “firms are successfully doing more with less labor,” said Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. 5
Investors are also weighing whether cooling jobs data is enough to pull the Federal Reserve back toward rate cuts. The Chicago Fed estimated the unemployment rate held at 4.6% in December, while economists expect the official jobless rate to dip to 4.5% in Friday’s report; financial markets were pricing about a 10% chance of a cut at the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting, rising to roughly 55% by April. 6
Housing policy is another wild card that can ricochet into Dow-linked industrial and consumer names. Trump said the U.S. would ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, a threat that has already stirred debate over who is driving home prices and how much supply is really the problem. 7
But the setup cuts both ways. A stronger-than-expected payrolls print or hotter wage gains could push yields higher and put pressure back on long-duration growth stocks, while a weaker report might revive rate-cut bets even as it raises questions about demand.
Next up is Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December, with traders watching the unemployment rate and wage growth for clues on how quickly the Fed can move.
