New York, January 29, 2026, 06:05 EST — Premarket
- Dow E-minis climbed 42 points as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up too
- IBM climbs following earnings; Microsoft falls as investors cast doubt on AI spending payoffs
- Jobless claims and the PCE inflation gauge are set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET; Apple reports earnings after the market close
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures nudged higher early Thursday as investors parsed Big Tech earnings and considered how much more spending the AI race can sustain. At 5:21 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis — futures tracking the index before the open — gained 42 points, or 0.09%. Meta surged 7.9%, Tesla climbed 2.9%, while Microsoft dropped 6.4% and IBM rose 8.3%. “Traders are no longer rewarding the biggest spenders,” said Jake Behan, head of capital markets at Direxion, as capital spending (capex) faces increased scrutiny. 1
This month, the Dow’s gains have hinged on a handful of heavy hitters. Now, two key tests are looming: inflation data and earnings reports. Strong inflation numbers could quickly erase hopes for rate cuts; a disappointing earnings report would slam the door even harder.
The cash index finished Wednesday nearly unchanged after the Federal Reserve left rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing a data-driven approach moving forward. The Dow inched up 12.19 points, or 0.02%, to 49,015.60. The S&P 500 slipped 0.01%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.17%. “Whether you were bullish or bearish … you walked away feeling about the same,” said Michael James, an equity sales trader at Rosenblatt Securities. 2
IBM surged after topping Wall Street estimates for quarterly revenue and profit, driven by strong demand for AI-related software. The company also announced it will stop reporting its “AI book of business” metric starting in the first quarter. CFO Jim Kavanaugh noted last year’s U.S. government shutdown trimmed Red Hat’s growth by “a couple points,” adding, “We’re going to have to deal with that as we move forward.” 3
Apple is set to report earnings later Thursday, with high expectations for its holiday quarter. Analysts, Reuters notes, predict iPhone sales growth to be the strongest in over four years. Investors will be watching closely for Apple’s strategy on handling the ongoing memory-chip shortage and how swiftly it can deploy AI features developed using Google’s technology. Gerrit Smit, manager of the Stonehage Fleming Global Best Ideas Equity fund, said, “Apple can probably generate a positive return on very little AI investment.” 4
The Dow tracks 30 blue-chip U.S. companies and is price-weighted, so shares with higher prices have more impact on the index than those with lower prices—even if those companies have smaller market caps. 5
On the macro side, the spotlight’s on the initial jobless claims and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, the Fed’s go-to inflation measure, with the first read set for 8:30 a.m. ET. 6
Politics remains in the background. Federal funding faces a deadline at week’s end, and any unexpected moves could show up in futures ahead of Washington’s response.
Caterpillar, among the Dow’s pricier names, is set to report earnings before Thursday’s open. Investors will be watching closely for clues on industrial demand and pricing strength. 7
The risk is straightforward: if inflation spikes or capex chatter grows louder without obvious returns, the market’s uneasy calm could shatter. With key indexes near record levels, traders have shown little patience—ready to sell first and ask questions afterward.
Traders’ focus shifts quickly: first up are the 8:30 a.m. ET jobless claims and PCE figures, followed by Apple’s earnings after the market closes. All while the funding deadline edges closer to Friday night.
