NEW YORK — Monday, December 22, 2025 (1:35 p.m. ET) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) traded higher in early afternoon action, hovering around 48,414 and up roughly 0.6% in a session marked by light pre-holiday volumes and a renewed bid for technology and AI-linked names. (Quotes on this snapshot are delayed, per Reuters/LSEG.) [1]
The advance puts the Dow within about 1% of its record closing peak set earlier this month, underscoring how quickly sentiment has swung back toward risk assets after a choppy stretch for December trading. [2]
Dow Jones at 1:35 PM: The numbers investors are watching
By early afternoon Monday, Reuters’ market dashboard showed:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: ~48,413.54, +278.65 (+0.58%)
- S&P 500: ~6,880.31, +0.67%
- Nasdaq Composite: ~23,450.05, +0.61% (data delayed at least 15 minutes) [3]
Earlier in the day, Reuters reported that by 11:40 a.m. ET the Dow had risen to 48,376.99 (+0.50%), with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also up about 0.6%—a steady, broad lift rather than a single-stock spike. [4]
Why the Dow is up today: AI optimism returns, volatility eases
The dominant narrative on December 22 is familiar: AI-linked momentum is back in the driver’s seat, helping stabilize broader U.S. equities as the market enters a holiday-shortened week.
Reuters pointed to strength in semiconductors and AI-related shares, including Micron and Nvidia, as a key prop under the major averages. Nvidia’s gains were tied to reporting that the company has told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping certain AI chips before mid-February (ahead of Lunar New Year timing). [5]
At the same time, investors got another signal that near-term market stress is fading: Reuters noted that Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), fell to its lowest level since September. [6]
Sector leadership: materials and energy add support
Even with AI in the headlines, the day’s gains weren’t confined to tech. Reuters reported 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors trading higher, led by materials and energy—a tailwind that often matters for the Dow because of its exposure to industrial and cyclical components. [7]
The Dow’s biggest movers: Chevron and Merck lead, while Nike weighs
Because the DJIA is price-weighted, a handful of higher-priced components can have an outsized impact on the index’s point move—sometimes more than their market value might suggest.
MarketWatch’s intraday data indicated the Dow’s rise was strongly influenced by Merck and Chevron, with those two stocks together contributing roughly 26 points to the index’s gains in one snapshot of trading. MarketWatch also highlighted a rule of thumb: a $1 move in a Dow component equals about a 6.16-point move in the index (the exact figure changes as the divisor changes). [8]
Nike stands out on the downside
One notable drag: Nike. Investopedia reported Nike was among the worst-performing Dow components Monday afternoon, with the stock down about 2% after a sharp decline Friday tied to the company’s outlook commentary. [9]
Beyond the Dow: the day’s headline catalysts shaping sentiment
Even on a day framed by “Santa rally” chatter, stock-specific and policy headlines are still moving money.
Tesla, media deal drama, and a big buyout headline
Reuters flagged several notable movers adding to the day’s tone:
- Tesla jumped after a court decision restored Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package, according to Reuters’ report. [10]
- Warner Bros. Discovery rose amid takeover-related developments involving Paramount Skydance and an equity-financing guarantee from Larry Ellison, Reuters said. [11]
- Clearwater Analytics rallied after an $8.4 billion go-private deal was announced. [12]
The Associated Press also described the session as broadly higher, with technology and banks helping to lead, while highlighting additional corporate storylines shaping intraday trading. [13]
Gold and silver at records, oil pops: cross-asset signals are loud today
Stocks weren’t the only market story on December 22.
Investopedia reported that gold and silver set fresh all-time highs, with gold futures trading above $4,475/oz at one point and silver also printing a record before easing back. [14]
The AP similarly noted record touches for gold and silver and described oil prices jumping on enforcement related to sanctioned tankers, adding to the day’s inflation-and-geopolitics backdrop. [15]
Meanwhile, Reuters’ market dashboard showed:
- Gold: ~$4,443.60 (+1.88%)
- Brent crude: ~$61.87 (+2.32%)
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.165% [16]
These cross-asset moves matter for the Dow because higher commodity prices can lift energy/materials constituents, while yields influence valuations—especially for growth and tech stocks that have been carrying the broader market narrative into year-end.
Holiday-shortened week: what traders are watching next
With Christmas approaching, liquidity is likely to thin out, which can exaggerate moves in either direction—especially in the Dow, where index-point moves can look dramatic even when the percentage change is modest.
Reuters noted U.S. markets are expected to see lighter volumes, with the stock market closing early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and closed Thursday for Christmas. [17]
Key economic releases: GDP, confidence, jobless claims
Even with the holiday schedule, the calendar still carries market-moving potential. Reuters and the AP both highlighted investors’ focus on upcoming U.S. data including:
- a reading on GDP (for the third quarter),
- consumer confidence for December,
- and weekly jobless claims. [18]
For traders, the question isn’t just “good or bad data.” It’s how the numbers reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path—and whether the economy looks resilient enough to support current equity pricing without reigniting inflation fears.
Santa Claus rally: tradition meets a 2025 market shaped by AI
The “Santa Claus rally” theme is back on desks and headlines, and not just because it makes for tidy TV graphics.
Reuters referenced the Stock Trader’s Almanac definition of the Santa Claus rally window—the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of January—and noted the historical tendency for that period to be positive on average. [19]
Barron’s also framed the late-year rebound narrative as “Santa Claus” returning to a market that has seesawed in December, helped by cooling-inflation signals and AI enthusiasm—while cautioning that valuations and macro uncertainty can still disrupt the pattern. [20]
Forecasts and outlooks dated Dec. 22, 2025: what strategists are saying about 2026
A Dow-focused trading day in late December quickly turns into a conversation about “what comes next.” And on Dec. 22, forecasts were plentiful—often conflicting, and increasingly nuanced.
1) The bullish consensus is tight — and some see that as a warning
Bloomberg News reporting (via Bloomberg Law) noted that major sell-side strategists’ 2026 targets for the S&P 500 are clustered unusually tightly, with one cited high forecast around 8,100 and a low around 7,000—a relatively narrow gap for year-ahead targets. [21]
That sameness itself is becoming a storyline: when forecasts converge, skeptics argue it can signal complacency rather than clarity.
2) “Assume it’s wrong”: the case against taking year-end targets too literally
An Advisor Perspectives column republishing Bloomberg commentary argued that while strategists may be projecting roughly ~11% upside, investors should be wary of treating point targets as tradable truths—especially in a market shaped by unpredictable shocks and a handful of mega-cap drivers. [22]
3) A more cautious call: a potential 10%–12% pullback in 2026
On the more defensive side, a Benzinga/Interactive Brokers item cited strategist Kenny Polcari discussing the possibility of a 10%–12% pullback in 2026 and advising against “chasing” tech early in the year, while highlighting potential interest in other sectors. [23]
4) Macro expectations: softer labor, modest growth, and slightly lower rates
Axios’ Macro Consensus survey of readers painted a mixed 2026 macro picture, including a median forecast for unemployment around 5% and GDP growth around 1.9%, alongside expectations for the Fed’s policy rate to drift lower by year-end. [24]
What this means for the Dow: the setup into year-end
For Dow watchers, today’s story can be summed up as: risk-on tone, AI tailwinds, and a market trying to glide into year-end without surprises.
But the details matter:
- The Dow is participating, even as AI headlines often benefit the Nasdaq more directly.
- Stock-specific moves (Nike down, Merck/Chevron up, Tesla strength) can swing Dow point totals quickly because of the index’s price weighting. [25]
- Cross-asset signals (record precious metals, higher oil, steady-to-firmer yields) suggest investors are still hedging—just not panicking. [26]
- Thin holiday trading can make a quiet market look loud, especially if upcoming economic data diverges from expectations. [27]
As of 1:35 p.m. ET on Dec. 22, the Dow’s upward drift reflects a market leaning into the idea that 2025’s biggest engine—AI investment and enthusiasm—still has enough fuel to carry equities through the final stretch of the year. [28]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. apnews.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. apnews.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. news.bloomberglaw.com, 22. www.advisorperspectives.com, 23. www.interactivebrokers.com, 24. www.axios.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com
