New York, January 6, 2026, 06:10 EST — Premarket
- Dow futures point slightly lower after the index ended Monday at a record.
- Energy shares led gains after Venezuela headlines lifted oil-linked stocks.
- Traders are bracing for Friday’s U.S. payrolls report to reset rate-cut bets.
U.S. stock-index futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down about 0.2% early Tuesday, pointing to a softer open after the blue-chip benchmark set fresh records a day earlier. 1
The Dow is sitting just shy of 49,000, a round-number level chart watchers often treat as a pressure point. With the index stretched, traders are demanding clean evidence that the economy is cooling — but not cracking — before adding to risk.
Federal Reserve officials have signaled they are watching the labour market closely as they weigh whether policy is already near “neutral”, meaning neither stimulating nor restraining growth. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday he saw a risk the unemployment rate jumps, underscoring why Friday’s data matters. 2
Stock-index futures are contracts that let investors hedge or wager on where an index will trade later. They can steer sentiment before the cash market opens, but early moves can fade quickly once liquidity builds.
On Monday, the Dow climbed 594.79 points, or 1.23%, to 48,977.18, while the S&P 500 rose 0.64% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.69%. Energy shares outperformed after a U.S. military strike captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, lifting crude prices; U.S. oil settled at $58.32 a barrel and Brent finished at $61.76, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2.4 basis points — one-hundredth of a percentage point — to 4.165%. 3
That rally left the Dow leaning heavily on oil-sensitive names and other cyclicals that benefit when growth holds up and borrowing costs ease. The risk for bulls is that oil’s initial pop fades if supply stays steady, draining momentum from one of the market’s strongest early-year groups.
Economic data have already been pulling in two directions. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index — a survey where readings below 50 signal contraction — fell to 47.9 in December, a 14-month low and the 10th straight month under that threshold, with tariffs cited as a drag. 4
The next big test is Friday’s December jobs report. A Reuters poll expects payrolls to rise 55,000 after November’s 64,000, and “If employment starts turning down … that’s going to signal that the recession is a lot closer than people think,” said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak; Fed funds futures — derivatives tied to the policy rate — imply little chance of a cut at the late-January meeting and nearly a 50% probability of a quarter-point reduction in March. 5
One risk is that a hotter jobs report — or sticky wage growth — pushes Treasury yields higher and forces markets to trim expectations for rate cuts, a combination that can squeeze equity valuations quickly. A downside surprise, meanwhile, could revive recession fears and hit economically sensitive Dow components even if it bolsters the case for easier policy.
