DroneShield (ASX:DRO) Soars on A$50m European Deal – What Today’s News Means for the Stock

SYDNEY – 16 December 2025 – DroneShield Limited (ASX: DRO, OTC: DRSHF), the Australian counter‑drone and electronic warfare company, is back in the spotlight after announcing a major A$49.6 million European military contract and a fresh €2.8 million Belgian order. Together, these deals have ignited a sharp rebound in the DroneShield share price and reignited the debate over whether the defence tech darling is now a buy, a hold, or still too risky.

DroneShield share price today: sharp rebound after brutal November

After closing at around A$2.30 on Monday, 15 December, DroneShield shares jumped strongly in Tuesday trade. By late morning on 16 December, the stock was up roughly 15% to about A$2.66, making it one of the top gainers on the S&P/ASX 200. ^[1]

Intraday commentary from market watchers suggested the rally at one point approached 20–25%, with the share price trading closer to the high A$2 range as investors digested the new contract win. ^[2]

The move comes after a wild few months:

DroneShield’s share price more than tripled year‑to‑date and delivered a one‑year total shareholder return of roughly 274%, with five‑year returns above 1,200%. ^[3]
In October, the stock hit euphoric highs before plunging about 75% from its peak in a matter of weeks as investors reacted to governance concerns and heavy insider selling. ^[4]

Today’s spike therefore isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s part relief rally, part vote of confidence in DroneShield’s ability to keep turning geopolitical demand for counter‑drone systems into large, cash‑generating contracts.

The headline: A$49.6m European military contract lands

The biggest catalyst behind today’s move is a new A$49.6 million (roughly A$50m) order from a European reseller, which is contractually obligated to deliver DroneShield’s handheld counter‑drone systems to a military customer in the region. ^[5]

Key details:

Customer structure: The counterparty is an in‑region reseller, not the end‑user military, but the contract is tied to a committed order for a specific European military customer. ^[6]
What’s being sold: The package includes handheld counter‑drone weapons (such as DroneGun‑type systems), accessories and associated software. ^[7]
Timing: A significant portion of the hardware is already in stock, and DroneShield expects deliveries and cash receipts to be largely completed in the March 2026 quarter. ^[8]
Track record with this reseller: This isn’t a one‑off win. Including this deal, DroneShield has now secured around 15 contracts worth more than A$86 million through the same European partner over the past three years, underlining repeat demand. ^[9]

For context, DroneShield generated about A$57 million in revenue in 2024; this single order is approaching that former full‑year figure on its own. ^[10]

In other words, the company is now writing individual contracts that resemble an entire prior year of sales – one of the clearest signs that it’s migrating from niche supplier to a more mainstream defence procurement partner in NATO‑aligned markets.

The Belgian contract: €2.8m deal adds breadth to European footprint

On top of the larger military order, DroneShield also announced a €2.8 million contract with Belgium for handheld counter‑drone jammers. ^[11]

According to recent analysis:

The deal showcases how European demand has shifted from small‑scale trials to full deployments of counter‑drone equipment. ^[12]
It lands while DroneShield’s share price trades around A$2.30–A$2.70 and caps a period where the stock has still delivered more than 200% year‑to‑date gains despite the recent volatility. ^[13]

Taken together, the €2.8m Belgian contract and the A$49.6m European military order point to a broadening European footprint – spanning both large military programs and smaller, country‑specific orders.

Fundamentals: rapid growth, big backlog, and a swelling pipeline

Leaving the share price aside, DroneShield’s operational numbers over 2024–2025 have been eye‑catching:

Record Q1 2025:
- Revenue of A$33.5m, up 102% year‑on‑year.
- Committed purchase orders of about A$94.4m for 2025.
- Cash balance near A$197m and a sales opportunity pipeline of about A$1.6bn. ^[14]
Q2 2025: Investor materials highlight a 480% year‑on‑year revenue increase in Q2 2025 as global defence spending on counter‑drone technologies accelerates, especially across NATO states. ^[15]
First half of 2025: By mid‑year, DroneShield had already generated around A$72.3m in revenue, moving into a much higher annual run‑rate compared with 2024. ^[16]

The new A$49.6m European contract is expected to be delivered mostly in early 2026, providing near‑term revenue visibility and cash inflow rather than a distant, back‑loaded program. ^[17]

Strategically, DroneShield continues to:

Sell into more than 40 countries, including the US, European allies and Ukraine. ^[18]
Expand its mix beyond hardware into AI‑driven detection, sensor fusion and subscription‑style software, which can support higher margins and recurring revenue over time. ^[19]

This is what underpins the bull case: a company at the crossroads of a new defence category (counter‑drone and electronic warfare) with a growing installed base and a pipeline that now stretches well into the hundreds of millions.

Valuation: big upside on paper, but priced well above peers

Despite the recent drawdown, DroneShield is not a cheap stock on traditional metrics.

Recent valuation work from several platforms converges on a few key points:

A popular fair‑value narrative pegs intrinsic value around A$5.15 per share, more than double the recent A$2.30–A$2.70 trading range, implying meaningful upside if growth continues. ^[20]
Consensus 12‑month price targets across selected analysts and data providers cluster between A$5.00 and A$5.30, with some aggregators showing an average target near A$5.25 – roughly 150% above current levels. ^[21]

However, there’s an important catch: DroneShield already trades on very rich sales multiples.

Simply Wall St notes that the stock is around 19.6× sales, compared with roughly 4.2× for the broader aerospace and defence sector and about 3.8× for peers. ^[22]

That gap can work both ways:

If DroneShield keeps delivering big contracts with strong margins and converts its pipeline into cash, the share price could grow into – or beyond – those multiples.
If growth stumbles, order timing slips, or margins disappoint, there is very little valuation “cushion” to absorb negative surprises.

Longer‑term, at least one high‑level equity research piece sketches a scenario in which DroneShield’s revenue could grow from about A$58m in 2024 to as much as A$2.5bn by 2030, though this is a highly ambitious projection that assumes near‑flawless execution and continued geopolitical tailwinds. ^[23]

For investors, the message is clear: this is a high‑growth, high‑expectation story, not a slow‑and‑steady value stock.

Short‑term technical outlook: still flagged as “sell candidate”

Interestingly, not everyone looking at the chart is bullish after today’s bounce.

Technical analysis site StockInvest, which updates after each trading session, currently classifies DroneShield as a “sell candidate”, even though the share price has climbed more than 17% in the past two weeks and 10.6% in the last session alone. ^[24]

Key technical signals as of the 15 December close (A$2.30):

High daily volatility, with typical intraday moves in the 10% range.
A divergence between rising prices and falling volume, often viewed as an early warning sign that a rally may be losing conviction.
A short‑term moving‑average buy signal, but a longer‑term moving‑average sell signal – resulting in an overall cautious stance.
A modelled three‑month forecast that, based purely on trend and volatility patterns, suggests a potential 45% downside from current levels, with a wide range of outcomes. ^[25]

These algorithmic forecasts are not fundamental valuations; they’re pattern‑based tools. But they illustrate how polarised the short‑term view on DroneShield has become: fundamental bulls vs. technical sceptics.

Governance overhang: the November trust shock isn’t forgotten

While today’s contract news is positive, it lands only weeks after a serious governance crisis that shook investor confidence.

In November 2025:

DroneShield shares suffered one of their worst days on record after CEO Oleg Vornik sold about A$49.5m worth of shares, with the chairman also offloading millions of dollars’ worth of stock. ^[26]
Reuters reported that, from early October to late November, the stock plunged about 75% from its peak, wiping out more than A$4.3bn in market value as investors reacted to executive share sales, a contract disclosure error and the abrupt departure of the company’s US CEO. ^[27]
The company admitted it had wrongly described an existing US$7.6m contract as a new order, prompting it to raise the threshold for disclosing contracts from A$5m to A$20m and commit to a review of its policies. ^[28]
Commentators highlighted how three directors – including the CEO and chairman – sold all their shares around the time of the erroneous contract announcement, raising serious questions about timing, disclosure and internal controls. ^[29]

Subsequent reporting indicates:

Vornik has defended the sales as the exercising and disposal of performance shares linked to revenue targets, arguing the company lacked the cash to settle bonuses in cash.
The board has promised an independent review of disclosure and trading policies and scheduled sessions to take shareholder questions. ^[30]

For many institutional investors, this governance overhang remains the main risk factor. Today’s A$49.6m deal proves that operations and demand remain strong; the open question is whether management and the board can rebuild trust over 2026 with consistently clean, transparent communication.

Is DroneShield stock a buy after the A$50m contract?

Whether DroneShield is attractive at current levels depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon and how you weigh the competing narratives.

What today’s news improves

Revenue visibility and near‑term cash flow
- The European contract should add almost A$50m of revenue, largely recognised by early 2026, with many units already built. This reduces uncertainty around DroneShield’s short‑term revenue base. ^[31]
Proof of repeat demand
- Fifteen contracts worth more than A$86m via the same European reseller and a fresh Belgian order reinforce that customers are not just trialling the technology; they’re coming back for more. ^[32]
Strategic positioning in a growing segment
- Counter‑drone and electronic warfare systems are now central to modern conflict and critical infrastructure protection. DroneShield has products deployed in more than 40 countries and has become one of Australia’s most valuable listed defence companies. ^[33]
Support for the growth narrative
- Strong 2024–2025 growth, record quarterly revenues and a thick pipeline give fundamental backing to bullish long‑term scenarios, even if those scenarios are aggressive. ^[34]

What still argues for caution

Rich valuation vs. peers
- At nearly 20× sales – several times the sector average – DroneShield is priced as a high‑growth market darling. That multiple leaves little room for execution missteps. ^[35]
Extreme volatility and conflicting technical signals
- Double‑digit daily swings, a recent technical “sell candidate” label and a wide range of modelled outcomes highlight that the stock remains high risk in the short term. ^[36]
Governance and trust rebuilding
- November’s share‑sale controversy, disclosure error and leadership churn are still fresh in investors’ minds. Many institutions will want to see several quarters of clean execution, stronger policies and transparent communication before re‑rating the stock fully. ^[37]
Contract lumpiness
- Large defence contracts can make quarterly revenue lumpy. Even as the order book grows, reported numbers may swing sharply from quarter to quarter, which can amplify share price volatility. ^[38]

Key catalysts to watch from here

For investors tracking DroneShield after today’s news, several milestones stand out:

Execution of the A$49.6m European contract
- Delivery timing, margin disclosure and any commentary on follow‑on orders in 2026 will be closely watched.
Further European wins
- More contracts like the Belgian deal would strengthen the case that DroneShield is becoming a “default” counter‑drone provider in certain European segments. ^[39]
Next results announcement (expected early March 2026)
- Third‑party calendars currently flag early March 2026 as the next major earnings checkpoint. That update will be a key test of whether DroneShield can convert its backlog into sustainable margins and cash flow. TechStock²
Governance reforms and communication
- Evidence of stronger trading policies, clearer contract disclosures and more proactive engagement with shareholders could gradually compress the governance risk discount that built up in November. ^[40]

Bottom line: a powerful contract win in a still‑controversial story

As of 16 December 2025, DroneShield Limited stock sits at the intersection of huge operational momentum and lingering trust issues.

The A$49.6m European contract and €2.8m Belgian order validate the company’s technology, deepen its presence in a strategically important region and provide tangible near‑term revenue.
Fundamental bulls can point to a fast‑growing pipeline, aggressive long‑term growth scenarios and analyst fair‑value estimates that remain well above the current DroneShield share price. ^[41]
Sceptics can point just as credibly to rich multiples, short‑term technical warnings and a recent governance debacle that may take time to fully repair.

For now, DroneShield looks set to remain what it has been for much of the past year: a high‑beta defence stock where every new contract, policy change and trading update can move the share price dramatically.