Published: November 25, 2025
Global markets are digesting a deceptively busy Monday in the United States and an unusually quiet Tuesday in Asia, as traders position for year‑end and the next Federal Reserve meeting.
On Monday, November 24, 2025, attention centered on the Federal Reserve’s annual revision to industrial production and capacity utilization, a weak Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, and a trio of short‑dated U.S. Treasury auctions.Investing.com+2Federal Reserve+2
By early Tuesday in Asia (November 25), the data calendar had largely dried up, with only a strong South Korean consumer confidence reading on the board and little else on the regional agenda.investingLive+3RTTNews+3TradingView+3
1. What Was on Monday’s Economic Calendar?
Monday’s U.S. economic calendar looked light at first glance—no blockbuster “tier‑one” releases—but it contained several data points that matter for rate expectations and the growth outlook.Investing.com
Key scheduled items for Monday, Nov. 24, 2025 included:
- Federal Reserve G.17: Annual revision to industrial production and capacity utilization
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (scheduled but delayed due to earlier government shutdown‑related disruptions)
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index – November
- U.S. Treasury auctions:
- 3‑month bill auction
- 6‑month bill auction
- 2‑year note auctionCME Group+3Investing.com+3ALM First+3
While none of these releases carry the headline punch of payrolls or CPI, together they shape how investors think about:
- the underlying strength of U.S. manufacturing,
- how tight or loose financial conditions are,
- and whether markets are ahead of or behind the Fed on rate‑cut pricing.
2. Industrial Production: All About the Fed’s Annual Revision
If you were hoping for fresh monthly industrial production numbers on Monday, you didn’t get them. Instead, the focus was on the Federal Reserve’s annual revision to the entire industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization dataset.Federal Reserve+3Federal Reserve+3Federal …
2.1 What the revision is
Once a year, the Fed re‑benchmarks its IP series, incorporating:
- new data from the 2022 Economic Census,
- updated input‑output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
- and revised weights for different industries and market segments.Federal Reserve+3Federal Reserve+3Federal …
This is not just a technical exercise. It can change:
- the level and growth rate of industrial output over recent years,
- capacity utilization, which feeds into how much inflationary pressure factories might be generating,
- and how analysts interpret earlier cycles—was growth stronger, weaker, or simply mis‑measured?
2.2 Early takeaways
While the full statistical tables are primarily for specialists, early commentary highlights:
- Downward revisions to past growth, including a revision of August 2025 industrial production from mild growth to a small contraction around –0.1%, signaling a softer manufacturing backdrop than initially reported.FRED+3MarketScreener+3Federal Reserve+3
- Lower capacity utilization estimates versus the pre‑revision data, reinforcing the idea that there is still slack in the industrial sector and less immediate inflation pressure coming from factories.Federal Reserve+3Federal Reserve+3Federal …
For markets, a softer historical IP path subtly supports the narrative that the Fed has some room to ease policy if inflation continues to cool.
3. Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Headline Slump, Under‑the‑Hood Strength
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for November came in at –10.4, down from –5.0 in October, signaling a deeper contraction in headline business conditions in Texas manufacturing.investingLive+4TradingView+4investingLive+…
On the surface, that looks bad. But the details tell a more nuanced story:
- Production index: jumped sharply to around 20.5, from roughly 5.2 in October—one of the strongest readings in recent years and a clear sign that output itself is accelerating.Capital Spectator+4TradingView+4investingL…
- New orders: turned positive, rising to about 4.8 after being in negative territory (–1.7) the prior month, suggesting demand is stabilizing or improving.Investing.com India+3TradingView+3investin…
- Capacity utilization: also moved higher, mirroring the production gains.TradingView+1
How can output surge while the headline index is deeply negative?
The Dallas survey’s overall index captures business sentiment and broader perceptions of conditions, not just the hard activity metrics. It appears that:
- Actual production and orders are improving, but
- Executives remain cautious, perhaps because of policy uncertainty, election risks, lingering supply issues, or the recent record U.S. government shutdown that delayed many federal data releases.ALM First+2RTTNews+2
For markets, that mix—improving activity but pessimistic sentiment—leans toward “soft landing but fragile” rather than outright recession.
4. Treasury Auctions: Lower Yields, Solid Demand
Monday also brought a cluster of short‑dated U.S. Treasury auctions, all closely watched as real‑time gauges of risk appetite and Fed expectations.
4.1 2‑Year Note Auction
- High yield:3.489%, down from 3.504% at the October auction.X (formerly Twitter)+4Investing.com+4Tradi…
- Bid‑to‑cover ratio: about 2.68, described by market commentary as roughly mid‑range, signaling healthy but not euphoric demand.TradingView+2AInvest+2
- Buyer mix: direct bidders took around 30.7%, indirect bidders about 58.1%, consistent with solid overseas and institutional interest.AInvest+2AInvest+2
A slightly lower yield at the auction, combined with ongoing demand, fits with the story that markets are leaning toward at least one Fed rate cut in December if incoming inflation and growth data cooperate.Bloomberg+1
4.2 3‑Month Bill Auction
- High yield: about 3.745%, down from 3.795% the previous week.AInvest+4Investing.com+4Investing.com Nige…
Short‑term bill yields are highly sensitive to expectations for the policy rate over the next few meetings. A small step down reinforces the idea that traders see peak rates behind us.
4.3 6‑Month Bill Auction
- High yield: around 3.670%, also lower than the prior 3.710% result.EconoTimes+5Investing.com+5Investing.com C…
The six‑month tenor bridges the gap between very short‑term policy expectations and the early 2026 outlook. A modest decline here suggests the market is pricing a gradual easing path, not an aggressive cutting cycle.
4.4 Market reaction
Against this backdrop:
- U.S. Treasuries rallied for a third straight session, pushing the 10‑year yield down toward 4.03%, the lowest level this month.Bloomberg
- The 2‑year yield did not fall as much, partly restrained by the auction, but still reflected softer expectations for the Fed’s peak rate.
In other words, the auctions and the IP revision worked in the same direction: lower yields, firmer expectations of a December cut, and a gentle bull‑steepening of the curve.
5. Asia on Tuesday: Empty Calendar, But Korean Consumers Are Confident
By the time Asia opened on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, the data slate for the region was effectively empty for the rest of the session. Multiple FX newswires and trading desks described the Asia‑Pacific economic calendar as “bare” or “empty” for the day, with only earlier South Korean numbers in focus.FxVerify+3TradingView+3TradingView+3
5.1 South Korea: Consumer confidence hits multi‑year high
The one notable release came from South Korea:
- Consumer sentiment index: rose to 112.4 in November from 109.8 in October.
- This is the highest reading since November 2017, signalling an unusually upbeat mood among households.TradingCharts+3RTTNews+3TradingView+3
- Inflation expectations for the year ahead: held steady at 2.6%, the same as in October, suggesting price expectations remain well‑anchored.RTTNews+2TradingView+2
Survey details from the Bank of Korea show improvements in households’ views on both current and future economic conditions, as well as stable assessments of living standards and income prospects.RTTNews+1
For Asian FX and equity traders, that mix—strong sentiment but tame inflation expectations—is supportive of:
- a more patient BOK, and
- a constructive outlook for domestic consumption, especially in sectors tied to retail, services and housing.
5.2 Elsewhere in Asia and Europe
While the Asia‑Pacific calendar is thin, Europe’s Tuesday schedule is more active, with data such as:
- Germany’s final Q3 GDP,
- French consumer confidence for November,
- and Spain’s producer prices for October.TradingCharts+3Comerica+3TradingCharts+3
Those releases will help shape the European growth narrative, but the Asia session itself is largely about position squaring after Monday’s U.S. moves and ahead of heavier U.S. data later in the week (including retail sales, PPI revisions and housing indicators).Comerica+1
6. What It All Means for Markets Today
Putting Monday and Tuesday together, here’s the big picture for November 25, 2025:
- Growth signals are mixed, but not collapsing.
- The Dallas Fed survey’s headline index looks recessionary, but the surge in production and positive new orders tell a more constructive story for Texas manufacturing and, by extension, parts of the U.S. industrial base.Investing.com India+4TradingView+4investin…
- The industrial production revision leans dovish.
- The Fed’s annual G.17 revision softens recent IP and capacity utilization levels, giving policymakers cover if they choose to cut rates without stoking fears of overheating.FRED+3Federal Reserve+3Federal Reserve+3
- Treasury demand supports the rate‑cut narrative.
- Strong, orderly auctions at slightly lower yields across 3‑month, 6‑month and 2‑year tenors confirm that the market is comfortable with the idea of easier policy in 2026, not a renewed tightening cycle.Investing.com Canada+5Investing.com+5AInve…
- Asia’s empty calendar magnifies U.S. signals.
- With almost no new data in the Asia session, traders are left to trade the U.S. story: a softer industrial trajectory, cautious business sentiment, but still‑resilient activity and anchored inflation expectations in key economies like South Korea.Bloomberg+4TradingView+4RTTNews+4
- Risk assets balance rate‑cut hopes and growth worries.
- U.S. Treasuries have rallied for several days as traders add to December rate‑cut bets, even as equity markets weigh the benefits of lower yields against evidence of slower industrial growth.Bloomberg+2TradingView+2
For now, the message from the calendar is moderately supportive for risk assets: growth is not booming, but the combination of lower yields, contained inflation expectations and pockets of strength in production and consumer sentiment keeps the “soft landing” scenario alive.
