New York, Jan 11, 2026, 13:32 EST — Market closed
- Venezuela headlines are grabbing attention in the U.S. energy trade ahead of Monday’s open
- Oil ended last week up, driven by concerns over supply risks, adding fresh uncertainty to the sector
- Late January will bring earnings reports from oil majors and oilfield services companies, marking the next major catalyst
U.S. energy shares start the week focused on Venezuela, following signals from Exxon Mobil and Chevron execs about exploring investments and boosting production there. This comes just days after U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Exxon CEO Darren Woods described Venezuela as “uninvestable” at present, adding that any technical visit depends on “appropriate security guarantees.” (Reuters)
The timing is clear: energy stocks remain tied to crude supply and demand, and Washington is reshaping both by changing who’s allowed to sell Venezuelan oil—and under what terms. The sector also faces a busy earnings period in just days, with companies set to outline their 2026 strategies amid volatile prices and evolving geopolitical tensions.
The timing feels off. The oil market is focused on immediate disruption risks, yet the Venezuela story hinges on policy shifts and investment timelines that stretch out — and can swing from bullish to bearish based on how fast barrels actually come back.
The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), tracking the wider U.S. energy sector, closed Friday 0.3% higher at $131.20. Exxon climbed 1.4%, Chevron advanced 1.8%, and SLB also jumped 1.8%. ConocoPhillips, however, dropped 1.2%.
A second major development came Saturday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters the U.S. might ease more Venezuela sanctions “as soon as next week” to clear the way for oil sales, saying, “We’re de-sanctioning the oil that’s going to be sold.” (Reuters)
Crude finished last week stronger, giving energy stocks a boost. Brent closed Friday at $63.34 a barrel, rising 2.18%, while U.S. WTI jumped 2.35% to $59.12. Traders factored in unrest in Iran alongside Russia-Ukraine war-related attacks. “The uprising in Iran is keeping the market on edge,” noted Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen added that protests are “gathering momentum.” (Reuters)
The oil rally carried a cautionary note. Reuters flagged that global inventories are climbing, with oversupply still the key factor limiting price gains. Meanwhile, market focus shifts to how Venezuelan crude in storage will be sold and moved. Baker Hughes’ weekly rig count, a key measure of active U.S. drilling rigs used as a rough barometer of future supply, dropped by two to 544 — the lowest level since mid-December. (Reuters)
Policy risk has crept into the mix. Reuters reported that Trump signed an executive order to stop courts or creditors from seizing revenue from Venezuelan oil sales held in U.S. Treasury accounts, declaring the funds sovereign property exempt from private claims. The White House is considering a deal to bring as much as 50 million barrels of crude to U.S. shores, where certain refineries can handle it. (Reuters)
Washington is highlighting Chevron’s potential speed. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the company identified “a pathway to grow their production by 50% in the next 18-24 months.” He also noted “tremendous interest” from industry following a White House meeting on Venezuela. (Reuters)
Still, the Venezuela angle is a double-edged sword for energy bulls. Bringing sanctioned barrels back online won’t happen overnight, and companies insist on legal safeguards and security before moving forward. But the mere possibility of increased supply later on can weigh on oil prices now, undercutting rallies if traders start factoring it in too soon.
Traders are now focused on the calendar: SLB’s fourth-quarter earnings call is slated for Jan. 23, Baker Hughes will report results on Jan. 25 followed by a webcast on Jan. 26, and both Exxon and Chevron have their fourth-quarter earnings set for Jan. 30. (Slb)
