NEW YORK, Jan 10, 2026, 13:38 (EST) — Market closed
- U.S. energy secretary says Chevron anticipates boosting Venezuela’s output by 50% within 18–24 months, subject to necessary approvals
- Exxon CEO calls Venezuela “uninvestable” unless legal reforms happen; Chevron signals a quick surge in JV shipments
- Energy shares finished mixed Friday while Brent and WTI climbed roughly 2% heading into the weekend
U.S. energy stocks opened Monday with renewed focus on Venezuela after Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealed Chevron expects “a pathway” to boost production there by 50% within 18 to 24 months, pending more approvals from Washington. Wright noted the White House has received “tremendous interest” from oil executives but stopped short of confirming any concrete commitments. (Reuters)
The story matters now because the administration is scrambling to extract barrels from a country with vast reserves but shattered infrastructure, all while crude remains stuck in a range that keeps U.S. producers on edge. Investors are left weighing the timeline: will it take years of development, or could existing projects deliver a quicker boost?
At Friday’s close, the Vanguard Energy ETF, which mirrors a broad U.S. energy-stock index, ticked up 0.3% to $131.20. Exxon Mobil rose 1.4%, ending at $124.61, while Chevron added 1.8% to $162.11. ConocoPhillips, however, slipped 1.2% to $97.51. On the commodity front, Brent crude oil jumped 2.18% to $63.34 a barrel, and U.S. WTI rose 2.35% to $59.12. (Vanguard)
At a White House meeting Friday, Exxon CEO Darren Woods called Venezuela “uninvestable” right now. He said Exxon would need security guarantees and a rewrite of the hydrocarbons law before sending in a technical team. Chevron vice chairman Mark Nelson said the company could double near-term “liftings” — the barrels it loads from joint ventures with PDVSA — and boost production by about 50% within 18 to 24 months under current plans. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance added any return would likely need bank backing and a rethink of PDVSA, noting Venezuela still owes Exxon and Conoco more than $13 billion tied to past expropriations. (Reuters)
Trump has stepped up his public push, telling executives he wants $100 billion poured into revamping what he called Venezuela’s “rotting” energy infrastructure. He added that Washington would pick which oil companies get involved. The president also highlighted a deal with interim leaders to send 50 million barrels of crude to the U.S. Still, investors and analysts warn that high costs and political risks could limit large, long-term projects. (Reuters)
Crude prices have reacted to headlines, but supply concerns elsewhere played a role too. Brent closed up 3.4% on Jan. 8 at $61.99, while WTI climbed 3.2% to $57.76. Traders balanced worries about Venezuela alongside issues in Russia, Iraq, and Iran. Ritterbusch and Associates noted that significant Venezuelan crude shipments to the U.S. Gulf Coast might still be years off. Meanwhile, Raymond James strategist Pavel Molchanov highlighted that Iranian exports—roughly 2% of global supply—could face pressure depending on how unrest unfolds there. (Reuters)
Macro forces remain a wildcard for the sector. Traders have Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report marked on their calendars, watching for clues on inflation and the Fed’s next move. At the same time, fourth-quarter earnings season is kicking off, capable of quickly swaying risk appetite. (Reuters)
Energy investors won’t have to wait long for company-specific updates. Exxon plans to hold its 4Q 2025 earnings call on Jan. 30 at 8:30 a.m. CST. Chevron follows on the same day at 11:00 a.m. EST, while ConocoPhillips schedules its fourth-quarter call for Feb. 5 at noon Eastern. (Exxon Mobil Corporation)
But ramping up Venezuela’s output could hit parts of the producer complex hard, flooding an already oversupplied market. Trump’s $50 oil target sits below what many U.S. producers need to turn a profit, and execs warn that funneling Venezuelan barrels into the mix could squeeze shale margins. “The surge of Venezuelan barrels is more than a supply shift; it is a stress test for the American shale model,” said oilfield-services executive Jasen Gast. (Reuters)
As trading kicks off Monday, investors will zero in on updates about U.S. licenses and security guarantees related to Venezuela oil projects, with Tuesday’s CPI report looming not far behind. The next major dates for the group are Jan. 30 and Feb. 5, when Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips release earnings and field queries on spending discipline and any Venezuela plans.
