Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock on December 8, 2025: Q3 Earnings, 8% Yield and LNG Delay Shape the Outlook

Note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Energy Transfer LP Stock Snapshot on 8 December 2025

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET), one of the largest U.S. midstream pipeline partnerships, is trading around $16.80 per unit in midday trading on December 8, 2025. That gives the partnership an equity value of roughly $57.6 billion and leaves the units a little over 20% below their 52‑week high of $21.45, set in January. ^[1]

Over the past 12 months, ET units have delivered a negative total price return of about 10–11%, underperforming the broader U.S. equity market despite a strong income stream. The 52‑week trading range runs from $14.60 to $21.45, with average daily trading volume near 15–16 million units, underscoring the stock’s high liquidity and institutional interest. ^[2]

On basic valuation, Energy Transfer trades at roughly 13–14× trailing earnings, with a PEG ratio (price/earnings-to-growth) close to 1.0 and a beta of about 0.65, suggesting lower volatility than the overall market. ^[3]

What continues to attract attention, though, is not the share price but the nearly 8% cash yield and a large slate of growth projects aimed directly at LNG exports and AI‑driven power demand.

Q3 2025 Earnings: A Mild Miss, Record Volumes

Energy Transfer released its third‑quarter 2025 results on November 5. At the headline level, the quarter was mixed:

Adjusted EPS / earnings per common unit:
- $0.28, below the $0.33 Zacks consensus estimate (a ~15% miss) and down from $0.32 a year ago. ^[4]
Total revenue:
- About $19.95 billion, down 3.9% year‑over‑year and below Wall Street expectations in the low‑$22 billion range. ^[5]
Net income attributable to partners:
- Roughly $1.02 billion, versus $1.18 billion in Q3 2024. ^[6]
Adjusted EBITDA:
- About $3.84 billion, down from $3.96 billion a year earlier, reflecting several one‑off items. ^[7]

Despite the revenue and earnings miss, operating performance remained robust:

Record NGL (natural gas liquids) and refined products terminal volumes, up about 10% year‑on‑year.
NGL transportation volumes up around 11% and NGL exports up roughly 13%, all at partnership records.
Interstate gas transportation volumes up about 8%, intrastate volumes up roughly 5%, and midstream gathered volumes up around 3%. ^[8]

Management continues to guide 2025 adjusted EBITDA to a range of roughly $16.1–$16.5 billion, and expects 2025 growth capex near $4.6 billion, stepping up to around $5 billion in 2026 as major projects in natural gas, NGLs, and storage move forward. ^[9]

One important nuance: while adjusted EBITDA has been broadly stable to slightly higher across 2025, distributable cash flow (DCF) has declined year‑over‑year in several quarters. An analysis of ET’s filings shows that higher interest expense, elevated maintenance capex, and some one‑time items (including losses on debt extinguishment and weaker “other” income) have weighed on DCF even as operating results improved. ^[10]

Distribution Profile: Nearly 8% Yield and Ongoing Growth

Income remains the center of the ET story.

Latest distribution increase

On October 28, 2025, Energy Transfer announced another increase in its quarterly cash distribution to $0.3325 per common unit, or $1.33 annualized, for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The cash payout was made on November 19 to unitholders of record as of November 7. ^[11]

This distribution is more than 3% higher than the Q3 2024 level and continues a stepwise pattern of small, regular increases since mid‑2022. Historical data show a three‑year average distribution growth rate above 20%, reflecting the post‑pandemic restoration and subsequent growth of ET’s payout. ^[12]

At today’s price near $16.80, that $1.33 annualized payout translates into a forward yield of roughly 7.9–8.0%. ^[13]

Coverage and leverage

A recent analysis (originally published on The Motley Fool and syndicated via Finviz) notes that, through the first three quarters of 2025, Energy Transfer generated about $6.2 billion of distributable cash flow and paid around $3.4 billion in distributions, implying a coverage ratio of roughly 1.8×. ^[14]

That same analysis highlights that ET’s leverage ratio now sits in the lower half of its 4.0–4.5× target range, giving the partnership enough balance‑sheet flexibility to fund roughly $4.6 billion of 2025 growth capex and about $5 billion in 2026, and still pursue distribution growth of 3–5% per year. ^[15]

However, investors should keep an eye on the trend in DCF. As Fintel’s breakdown of 2025 results emphasizes, higher interest expense and increased capital spending (especially maintenance) have eroded DCF in Q2 and Q3 2025 compared with the prior year, despite firm or higher EBITDA. ^[16] If that persists, it could limit the pace of future distribution growth or force a slower capex cadence.

Strategic Projects: LNG, Data Centers and a Heavy Growth Capex Slate

Lake Charles LNG: big prize, delayed FID

The Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana remains one of Energy Transfer’s most closely watched opportunities — and one of its biggest uncertainties.

On the November earnings call, management reiterated that no final investment decision (FID) will be taken until at least 80% of the project’s equity is sold to outside partners. ET has already pre‑sold most of the planned 16.5 million tonnes per year of LNG output under long‑term contracts, but rising construction costs and project risk have driven the company to seek more third‑party capital. ^[17]

Key points from recent coverage:

ET has a non‑binding development agreement with MidOcean Energy, which is expected to fund around 30% of construction costs and receive a similar share of LNG output. ^[18]
Management has made clear that projects must meet internal risk‑return thresholds; Lake Charles doesn’t yet, without more equity partners. ^[19]

The upshot: Lake Charles still looks like a potentially transformational asset for ET’s LNG footprint, but the timeline has pushed out, and investors should now view it as a late‑decade earnings driver rather than a near‑term one.

Pivoting into AI‑driven gas demand

The same Reuters piece highlights another strategic angle: booming power demand from AI and cloud data centers. ET is considering converting one of its Permian Basin NGL pipelines into a natural gas pipeline, with executives saying some scenarios show roughly double the revenue from gas compared with the current NGL service. ^[20]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects domestic natural gas consumption to rise from about 90.5 Bcf/d in 2024 to 91.6 Bcf/d in both 2025 and 2026, underscoring the structural demand tailwind. ^[21]

At the same time, ET has been:

Executing multiple long‑term agreements with Oracle to supply about 900 MMcf/d of natural gas to three large U.S. data centers (two in Texas). ^[22]
Commissioning the third of eight 10‑MW gas‑fired generation units in West Texas, directly tied to grid reliability and power‑hungry customers. ^[23]

These moves position Energy Transfer as a “pipes and power” toll‑collector behind the AI and data‑center build‑out, with earnings visibility anchored in multi‑year, fee‑based contracts.

Other major growth projects

Recent filings and earnings commentary highlight a pipeline of projects beyond LNG and data centers:

Bethel storage cavern (near Dallas–Fort Worth): new gas storage cavern expected to double working gas capacity to over 12 Bcf by late 2028. ^[24]
Mustang Draw II processing plant (Midland Basin): a 250 MMcf/d gas processing plant, targeted to enter service in Q4 2026, plus associated gathering and infrastructure. ^[25]
Price River Terminal expansion (Utah): will double export capacity of American Premium Uinta crude, adding new railcar loading infrastructure, a heated storage tank of about 120,000 barrels, and two additional 6,000‑foot storage tracks. ^[26]
Desert Southwest pipeline: a new gas pipeline project that is already fully contracted, providing long‑term visible cash flows once it comes online. ^[27]

Taken together, these projects underpin ET’s decision to sustain multi‑billion‑dollar annual growth capex through at least 2026, with a strong tilt toward natural gas infrastructure.

Institutional Flows and Insider Activity

On December 8, 2025, MarketBeat reported that Natixis trimmed its position in Energy Transfer by about 3.9% during the second quarter, selling roughly 704,000 units but still holding around 17.48 million units (about 0.51% of ET’s outstanding units) worth just under $317 million. ET remains Natixis’ 11th‑largest holding, suggesting continued conviction despite some profit‑taking. ^[28]

Several other institutional investors have been active as well, with firms like Kingstone Capital Partners, Energy Income Partners, Nuveen, Northside Capital Management, and Jump Financial either building new positions or substantially increasing their stakes. In aggregate, about 38% of ET units are held by institutional investors and hedge funds. ^[29]

On the insider front, longtime leader Kelcy Warren bought 1 million ET units in November at an average price near $16.95, lifting his personal stake to roughly 104.6 million units. ^[30] Insider buying of that scale does not guarantee future performance, but it often signals management confidence in the long‑term value proposition.

Wall Street Forecasts for Energy Transfer LP Stock

Despite the recent earnings miss, most sell‑side analysts remain constructive on ET:

MarketBeat forecast:
- Average 12‑month price target: about $21.6
- Target range:$17 to $25
- Implied upside: roughly 28–29% from the current price zone near $16.8
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”. ^[31]
TipRanks forecast:
- 11 analysts in the last three months
- Average target: about $21.2
- Range: $17 to $25
- Implied upside: about 26%
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”. ^[32]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 13 analysts, consensus rating “Buy”
- Average target: again near $21.6, very similar to the MarketBeat figure. ^[33]

Not everyone is enthusiastic. The recent Zacks note, published after Q3 results, assigns Energy Transfer a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), citing the EPS miss and year‑over‑year declines in revenue and adjusted earnings, along with rising interest expense and debt levels. ^[34]

Alongside analyst opinions, some algorithmic and technical‑model forecasts project a sideways near‑term path but significant long‑term upside:

CoinCodex’s model suggests a 2025 trading range between roughly $16.60 and $17.34 — essentially flat versus today — but a 2030 range between about $35.5 and $47.6, implying substantial potential long‑term appreciation if ET delivers on its project backlog and maintains distributions. ^[35]

These model‑driven forecasts are not fundamental research, but they do illustrate the gap between near‑term caution and long‑term bullish narratives around ET.

Fresh Analyst and Commentary Highlights (December 2025)

Several new pieces of analysis dropped in late November and early December:

A December 8 Seeking Alpha article, “Energy Transfer: Growth And Impressive Midstream Assets,” emphasizes ET’s nearly 8% yield, strong DCF, and $4.6 billion 2025 growth capex plan, with particular focus on NGL export capacity, data‑center‑driven gas demand, and the fully contracted Desert Southwest pipeline. It flags energy transition risk (renewables, nuclear) as the biggest long‑term uncertainty but remains positive on current fundamentals. ^[36]
A piece syndicated from The Motley Fool on December 1 frames Energy Transfer as an “8% dividend stock to own”, arguing that roughly 90% of its earnings are fee‑based, that the distribution coverage ratio around 1.8× is conservative, and that ET’s leverage is at its healthiest level in years. The article also underlines management’s plan to grow the payout by 3–5% annually while funding multi‑year expansion projects. ^[37]
Zacks’ Q3 wrap‑up stresses that earnings and revenues lagged their estimates, and points to higher interest expense and elevated capex as reasons for caution, even as management lifts 2025 EBITDA guidance and accelerates investment. ^[38]

In short, income‑oriented and long‑term infrastructure investors generally see ET as an attractive high‑yield asset with visible growth, while more earnings‑focused or short‑term models are wary of margin pressure, debt costs, and macro risk.

Key Risks to Watch

Even with supportive fundamentals, Energy Transfer’s investment case carries meaningful risks:

Interest‑rate and refinancing risk
Rising or persistently high interest rates have already pushed up ET’s interest expense, contributing to declines in DCF despite solid EBITDA. ^[39] With over $60 billion of long‑term debt, the cost of rolling maturities matters.
Execution risk on mega‑projects
Lake Charles LNG, Mustang Draw II, and other multi‑billion‑dollar projects bring significant construction, regulatory, and cost‑overrun risk. The decision to delay Lake Charles FID until 80% of equity is sold underscores how sensitive the project is to cost inflation and risk allocation. ^[40]
Volume and commodity‑cycle risk
While ET’s cash flows are largely fee‑based, volumes ultimately track upstream activity and end‑market demand for gas, NGLs, and crude. A sharp downturn in U.S. production or a prolonged slump in global LNG prices could reduce throughput and growth opportunities.
Energy transition and policy risk
The long‑term shift toward renewables, nuclear and decarbonization could eventually cap fossil‑fuel demand growth, particularly in the 2030s and beyond. The Seeking Alpha note explicitly highlights this as ET’s main structural risk. ^[41] At the same time, political or regulatory action targeting pipelines or LNG exports could alter project economics.
Tax and structure complexity
Energy Transfer is a master limited partnership (MLP), meaning unitholders receive K‑1 tax forms and may face additional tax complexity, especially in retirement accounts or for non‑U.S. investors.

Bottom Line on ET Stock as of December 8, 2025

As of today, Energy Transfer LP sits at an interesting intersection:

The units trade well below their 52‑week high, at a valuation that’s modest on earnings and DCF metrics. ^[42]
The partnership offers a near‑8% cash yield, backed by a still‑healthy coverage ratio and a multi‑year pattern of distribution growth. ^[43]
Q3 2025 results show some pressure on earnings and DCF, but also record volumes, raised EBITDA guidance, and a deep pipeline of growth projects targeting LNG exports, data centers and regional gas demand. ^[44]
Most Wall Street analysts expect mid‑20%+ upside over the next 12 months, although models like Zacks’ short‑term ranking system remain cautious. ^[45]

For investors focused on income and long‑term infrastructure exposure, ET remains one of the most prominent high‑yield names in the North American midstream universe. The near‑term debate is less about whether the current payout is covered — it is — and more about:

How fast DCF can grow relative to interest expense and capex, and
How quickly big projects like Lake Charles LNG and data‑center‑linked gas infrastructure begin to contribute to the bottom line.