Enphase Energy stock jumps 36% on Q4 results, upbeat outlook and fresh analyst upgrades

Enphase Energy stock jumps 36% on Q4 results, upbeat outlook and fresh analyst upgrades

New York, Feb 4, 2026, 13:15 EST — Regular session

Enphase Energy shares surged roughly 36% to $50.5 by early afternoon Wednesday, fueled by the solar inverter maker’s latest quarterly results and upbeat forecast that revived hopes for a rebound in residential solar demand. Trading volume topped 35 million shares, with the stock fluctuating between $44.06 and $52.80.

The shift is significant now, coming after a prolonged slump in U.S. rooftop solar orders and steep discounting. Enphase reported a 21% jump in U.S. sell-through demand from the previous quarter—the biggest gain in more than two years—as customers rushed to install solar panels and batteries before the Section 25D residential clean energy tax credit expires.

The company disclosed in an 8-K filing that fourth-quarter revenue hit $343.3 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 46.1% and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.71. It projects first-quarter revenue between $270 million and $300 million, factoring in roughly $35 million from “safe-harbor” shipments—early deliveries designed to help financing partners secure tax benefits. The firm also expects a non-GAAP gross margin ranging from 42% to 45%, including about a five-point hit from tariffs. SEC

BMO Capital Markets analyst Ameet Thakkar upgraded Enphase to Market Perform, boosting his price target to $41 and citing the first-quarter revenue outlook as a “key catalyst,” according to Investing.com Nigeria. At the same time, RBC Capital’s Christopher Dendrinos raised his rating to Outperform, noting that “demand has bottomed” and hiking his target to $54.

On Tuesday’s earnings call, CEO Badri Kothandaraman struck a cautiously optimistic tone about the near-term outlook. “We continue to believe Q1 marks the low point for underlying demand,” he said, adding that Enphase is roughly 90% booked to the midpoint of its revenue forecast. The transcript also revealed $632.5 million in convertible notes due March 1, which the company expects to pay off in cash. The Motley Fool

Enphase is aiming to broaden its narrative beyond microinverters and home batteries. On Monday, the company showcased new demos of its IQ bidirectional EV charging platform, setting sights on volume production by Q4 2026. However, it cautioned that widespread compatibility hinges on automakers enabling the feature. “Bidirectional charging only works at scale if it works across vehicles, homes, and grids,” said Jayant Somani, a senior vice president at Enphase. GlobeNewswire

Parts of the solar sector felt the ripple. SolarEdge jumped roughly 8%, Sunrun also rose close to 8%, and the Invesco Solar ETF ticked up about 2%. Meanwhile, First Solar dropped nearly 3%.

Enphase reported $20.3 million in safe-harbor revenue for the fourth quarter, a steep drop from $70.9 million in the previous quarter. The company closed out 2025 with $1.51 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, according to its earnings release shared by Markets Insider. Additionally, it has roughly $268.7 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

But the rebound isn’t without complications. Safe-harbor shipments and policy-driven demand tend to fluctuate quarter to quarter. Enphase has flagged tariffs and sluggish European demand as factors that might continue to weigh on margins, even if U.S. orders hold steady.

Traders are zeroing in on SolarEdge’s earnings report due Feb. 18, expecting fresh insights on installer demand and pricing trends. Enphase faces its own challenge: can bookings stay strong through the quarter as the industry adapts post-Section 25D.

Shan Ahmed Khan

Shan Ahmed Khan is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and technology to economic developments across global markets. He worked in investment research and market analysis before becoming a financial journalist and is a graduate of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS).

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