PITTSBURGH — December 4, 2025 — EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT), the largest U.S. natural gas producer, is trading near record territory after a powerful multi‑month rally driven by stronger margins, a vertically integrated gas platform and renewed optimism around LNG and AI‑driven power demand. [1]
As of late‑morning U.S. trading on Thursday, EQT stock was changing hands around $60 per share, implying a market value of roughly $37–38 billion. [2] The move comes just one day after the shares notched a new all‑time high of $61.26, capping a 32% gain over the past 12 months and nearly 29% year‑to‑date. [3]
Below is a full rundown of what changed for EQT stock on December 4, 2025, and how Wall Street now sees the natural gas giant into 2026–2027.
EQT stock today: fresh highs, strong relative strength
Market data from StockAnalysis and other real‑time feeds show EQT trading just above $60, down modestly on the day but still within sight of Wednesday’s record. [4]
Recent performance highlights:
- 52‑week performance: EQT is up about 37% over the last year, outpacing the broader energy sector. [5]
- Short‑term momentum: Simply Wall St notes the stock has gained around 4% in the past week and nearly 10% in the past month, with a roughly 18% return over the last 90 days and ~39% 1‑year total shareholder return. [6]
- TV spotlight: On CNBC’s “Halftime Report – Final Trades” on Wednesday, Joseph Terranova picked EQT as his closing trade, with the stock closing that session up 4.4% at $61.17. [7]
Investor’s Business Daily recently highlighted EQT with an RS (Relative Strength) Rating of 84, reflecting leadership versus the broader market and noting triple‑digit earnings growth in the latest reported quarter. [8]
In short, EQT is now trading like a leadership stock rather than a deep‑value laggard.
Latest news on December 4, 2025: Goldman upgrade and momentum confirmation
Several fresh data points hit the tape in the last 24 hours:
Goldman Sachs raises EQT price target to $70
On Thursday, Goldman Sachs boosted its 12‑month price target on EQT from $66 to $70, reiterating a Buy rating. [9]
Goldman’s move adds to a long list of recent target hikes from major brokers including Bank of America, UBS, Wells Fargo, Barclays, BMO Capital Markets and Citigroup, many of which still rate the stock Overweight/Buy despite the run‑up. [10]
EQT features as a “Final Trade” on CNBC
Benzinga’s recap of CNBC’s “Halftime Report” confirms that Virtus Investment Partners’ Joseph Terranova named EQT Corporation as his final trade, highlighting the stock’s role as a way to play U.S. natural gas and LNG themes. [11]
That kind of mainstream TV exposure tends to draw in new retail interest, especially when the stock is already hitting fresh highs.
Simply Wall St: still modestly undervalued despite the rally
A new valuation piece published on December 4, 2025 by Simply Wall St characterizes EQT as “modestly undervalued” even after the recent surge. The platform’s most popular narrative puts fair value around $64 per share, roughly 4–5% above the recent close, based on a structural bull case for U.S. natural gas prices and EQT’s low‑cost, vertically integrated model. [12]
However, Simply Wall St also points out that EQT’s P/E multiple of roughly 21x is richer than the broader U.S. oil and gas industry, leaving less margin for error if sentiment cools. [13]
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 earnings show a step‑change in cash generation
EQT’s latest reported quarter (Q3 2025, released October 21) provides much of the fundamental support for today’s price action. [14]
Key highlights from management’s report:
- Sales volumes:
- Q3 total sales volume: 634 Bcfe, near the high end of guidance and up from 581 Bcfe a year earlier. [15]
- Pricing:
- Average realized price: $2.76 per Mcfe, up from $2.38 in Q3 2024, helped by gas marketing optimization and strategic curtailments. [16]
- Profitability and cash flow:
- Net income attributable to EQT: $336 million vs. a loss a year ago.
- Adjusted EPS: $0.52, ahead of consensus around $0.41. [17]
- Adjusted EBITDA attributable to EQT: $1.2 billion, up sharply from $824 million in Q3 2024. [18]
- Free cash flow attributable to EQT: $484 million, versus negative free cash flow a year prior. [19]
- Capital discipline:
- Capital expenditures of $618 million, about 10% below the midpoint of guidance, reflecting efficiency gains and midstream cost optimization. [20]
CEO Toby Rice emphasized that the third quarter set multiple operational records — from pumping hours to footage drilled — and described EQT’s “execution machine” as “firing on all cylinders,” particularly after quickly integrating the Olympus acquisition and the 2024 Equitrans Midstream merger that created a fully integrated upstream‑midstream gas platform. [21]
From an investor’s perspective, the story is simple: higher volumes, better realized prices and lower per‑unit costs are combining to produce much higher free cash flow than in prior cycles.
Guidance and 2026 outlook: flat volumes, disciplined capex, power‑demand upside
EQT’s near‑term guidance and 2026 commentary sit at the heart of the bull thesis.
Q4 2025 and full‑year 2025 guidance
From the company’s outlook: [22]
- Q4 2025 sales volumes:
- Expected at 550–600 Bcfe, below Q3 due in part to 15–20 Bcfe of strategic curtailments in October as EQT optimized around regional pricing volatility.
- Full‑year 2025 sales volumes:
- Narrowed to 2,325–2,375 Bcfe, slightly tightening the prior range as operational execution improved.
- 2025 capital expenditures:
- Total capex is expected at $2.3–2.4 billion, including $2.0–2.1 billion of maintenance capital and roughly $290–310 million of strategic growth capex.
2026 production profile and long‑run capex
In comments picked up by Reuters, EQT management said they expect 2026 natural gas production to remain broadly in line with the company’s 2025 exit rate, underlining a maintenance‑mode approach to volumes rather than an aggressive growth push. [23]
Management also indicated:
- Maintenance capex is expected to decline toward ~$2 billion later this decade, as further efficiency gains and integrated midstream infrastructure reduce per‑unit costs. [24]
- EQT has made “significant progress” on multiple in‑basin power projects and sees additional opportunities to supply new load growth — including data centers and industrial users — within Appalachia. [25]
That mix — flat volumes but rising margins and lower sustaining capital — is a core appeal for investors who prefer cash‑return stories over simple production growth.
Dividend and capital returns: a growing but modest yield
EQT has been steadily increasing its base dividend:
- In October, the company raised its annualized dividend by 5% to $0.66 per share (or $0.165 per quarter). [26]
- At the current share price near $60, that equates to a dividend yield of roughly 1.1%, with a payout ratio of about 22% of trailing earnings. [27]
The yield is modest, but EQT’s policy has been to let dividends grow alongside sustainable free cash flow, while using the rest of its cash for debt reduction, strategic projects like MVP Boost and opportunistic shareholder returns.
Analyst ratings and EQT stock price targets
Wall Street remains broadly constructive on EQT following the recent rally.
12‑month consensus: mid‑single‑digit upside from here
Data compiled by MarketBeat as of December 4 show: [28]
- 25 analysts have issued ratings in the past year.
- 18 rate EQT a Buy, 7 a Hold, 0 a Sell, yielding a “Moderate Buy” consensus.
- The average 12‑month price target is $63.83, implying about 6% upside from a reference price around $60.11.
- Target range:
- High: $80 (Bank of America among the most bullish).
- Low: $50 (Piper Sandler, which maintains a Neutral rating).
Today’s Goldman Sachs target hike to $70 sits toward the upper half of the range and reinforces the view that EQT can outperform if gas fundamentals stay constructive. [29]
2027 scenario: valuation models see room to $76
TIKR’s recent deep‑dive on EQT (November 23, 2025) blends analyst forecasts with a guided valuation model and arrives at a potential price of about $76 per share by the end of 2027. [30]
Key assumptions in that model:
- Revenue growth forecast: ~22%.
- Operating margin: ~40%.
- Valuation multiple: 15x forward earnings.
- Implied result: ~33.5% total return, or about 14.7% annualized, from late‑2025 levels if those assumptions hold. [31]
Crucially, that scenario does not rely on aggressive volume growth. Instead, it leans on margin expansion, cost discipline and structurally higher natural gas demand, especially via LNG exports.
Valuation: not cheap, but arguably reasonable for a gas leader
With the stock near record highs, valuation is the obvious question.
According to StockAnalysis, at around $60 per share EQT trades at: [32]
- Trailing P/E: ~20.6x
- Forward P/E: ~15.6x
- EV/EBITDA: ~8.9x
- Price‑to‑book: ~1.65x
- PEG ratio: ~0.67, reflecting solid expected earnings growth.
The company also boasts: [33]
- EBITDA margin: about 68% over the last 12 months.
- Free cash flow margin: roughly 32%.
- Debt/EBITDA: ~1.6x, with more than $3.7 billion of liquidity and a fully undrawn $3.5 billion revolving credit facility as of September 30, 2025.
Simply Wall St’s narrative concludes that EQT is around 4–5% below its fair value estimate of $64, while acknowledging that its P/E premium to peers leaves limited room for disappointment if gas prices or sentiment weaken. [34]
Relative to the broader oil and gas space, EQT is no longer a deep discount, but the market appears willing to pay up for its integrated pipeline footprint, low‑cost resources and leverage to LNG and AI‑driven power demand.
Macro backdrop: LNG exports, AI data centers and pipeline bottlenecks
The broader natural gas backdrop in late 2025 is unusually important for EQT.
Recent Reuters reporting shows: [35]
- U.S. LNG exports hit a record 10.9 million tonnes in November, the second straight monthly record, with liquefaction demand reaching about 18–19 Bcf/d.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects gas consumption to rise from roughly 102 Bcf/d in 2024 to about 108 Bcf/d by 2026, driven by LNG exports and power demand from AI‑heavy data centers.
- Infrastructure remains a constraint. Projects like EQT‑linked Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and MVP Boost have faced years of delays and cost overruns, illustrating the permitting and cost hurdles in expanding takeaway capacity from Appalachia. [36]
For EQT, this environment is a double‑edged sword:
- Positive: More LNG capacity and data‑center power demand increase long‑term call on gas, supporting higher price floors.
- Negative: Pipeline bottlenecks can cap regional realizations and delay growth projects, while regulatory risk remains elevated.
Hedge funds and long‑term investors: still constructive despite volatility
A Q3 2025 investor letter from Carillon Scout Mid Cap Fund (via Insider Monkey) highlighted that EQT underperformed earlier in the year as sentiment weakened when gas supply grew ahead of demand. The managers nonetheless remain positive, expecting new LNG export facilities and growing AI‑driven power needs to absorb excess supply over time. [37]
That perspective captures the current institutional consensus well: short‑term volatility, long‑term structural demand.
Key risks to the EQT stock story
Even with the recent strength, EQT is not risk‑free. Among the more important issues:
- Commodity price volatility
EQT’s cash flows remain tightly linked to U.S. natural gas prices, which can swing dramatically with weather, storage levels and global LNG pricing. A warm winter or a collapse in LNG margins could pressure realizations and earnings. [38] - Infrastructure and regulatory risk
MVP and related projects have already highlighted the legal and political challenges of building pipelines out of Appalachia. Any further delays or unfavorable regulation could constrain volume growth or erode returns on capital projects. [39] - Legal overhangs (partly resolved)
In June, EQT agreed to pay $167.5 million to settle a long‑running securities class‑action suit related to its 2017 Rice Energy merger. While the settlement removes uncertainty, it also underscores the governance and deal‑execution scrutiny large acquirers face. [40] - Valuation sensitivity
With the stock already discounting better margins and structurally higher gas prices, any disappointment in free cash flow or capital returns could prompt multiple compression, especially given EQT’s premium P/E relative to many peers. [41]
EQT stock forecast 2026–2027: what the numbers suggest
Synthesizing the various models and forecasts:
- 12‑month view (to late 2026):
- Street consensus centers around $63–64 per share, a 5–6% upside from current levels, with bulls targeting $70–80 and the most cautious analysts anchoring around $50. [42]
- Medium‑term (to end‑2027):
- TIKR’s guided valuation model points to around $76 per share by December 31, 2027, implying a 33% total return if EQT delivers on margin and earnings projections. [43]
- Growth expectations:
- StockAnalysis aggregates a five‑year revenue growth forecast of ~16% annually and EPS growth of more than 50% cumulatively, reflecting higher margin gas sales and integrated midstream economics. [44]
None of these forecasts are guarantees, and all are highly sensitive to natural gas prices, pipeline expansions and execution on capital allocation. But the broad message is consistent: Wall Street expects moderate upside over 12 months, with more meaningful potential through 2027 if the macro stays supportive.
Is EQT stock a buy now?
Whether EQT is attractive at today’s price depends heavily on your view of natural gas and your risk tolerance.
What the bull case emphasizes:
- EQT is the largest U.S. natural gas producer, now uniquely vertically integrated thanks to its Equitrans Midstream deal, giving it both scale and infrastructure advantages. [45]
- The company has significantly improved margins and free cash flow, with Q3 2025 results showing a clear step‑change versus prior years. [46]
- Structural trends in LNG exports and AI‑driven power demand could keep U.S. gas consumption at record highs, supporting multi‑year pricing. [47]
- Balance sheet metrics (Debt/EBITDA, liquidity) are solid, and the dividend is growing from a sustainable base. [48]
What the bear case highlights:
- EQT’s valuation is now in the mid‑teens on forward earnings and high single digits on EV/EBITDA, a premium to many gas peers. [49]
- The stock remains tied to a highly cyclical commodity, which can quickly erase earnings momentum if prices weaken. [50]
- Regulatory and infrastructure risks in Appalachia remain real, from pipeline litigation to political headwinds. [51]
For long‑term investors who:
- Believe in structurally higher gas demand,
- Are comfortable with commodity volatility, and
- Want exposure to U.S. LNG and power markets via a low‑cost operator,
EQT remains a credible candidate for further research. For shorter‑term traders, much of the easy money from the recent rerating may have already been captured, making entry points and risk management especially important.
Quick FAQ: EQT stock in December 2025
Why is EQT stock near record highs right now?
Because the market is rewarding stronger Q3 earnings, rising free cash flow, integration benefits from Equitrans Midstream and Olympus, plus a bullish macro narrative around LNG exports and AI‑driven power demand. Recent analyst upgrades (including Goldman’s $70 target) and TV exposure on CNBC have added fuel to the move. [52]
What is the current EQT stock forecast from Wall Street?
Across 25 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, EQT carries a “Moderate Buy” rating with an average 12‑month price target of $63.83, implying roughly 6% upside from around $60. High and low targets sit at $80 and $50, respectively. [53]
What is a reasonable long‑term EQT price target for 2027?
One structured model from TIKR, using analyst consensus forecasts and a 15x forward P/E, points to about $76 per share by the end of 2027, implying low‑teens annualized returns from late‑2025 levels if assumptions on margins and gas demand prove correct. [54]
Is EQT stock risky?
Yes. EQT is exposed to natural gas price swings, infrastructure constraints, regulatory uncertainty and execution risk on capital projects. Even though the balance sheet is relatively conservative and the business is more integrated than in past cycles, the stock will remain volatile compared with many non‑commodity sectors. [55]
References
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