NEW YORK, Feb 6, 2026, 14:59 EST — Regular session
- EL shares bounce back a bit, recovering some losses after yesterday’s steep post-earnings slide
- Citi has upgraded to “buy” following the selloff, saying it was expectations—not fundamentals—that drove most of the downturn.
- Tariffs still loom, and how quickly U.S. demand bounces back is the other wildcard traders are watching.
Estee Lauder shares climbed roughly 4% Friday, pushing the stock up near $100.58 by the afternoon and clawing back a significant portion of Thursday’s drop.
The rebound is significant. The market’s response to the cosmetics maker’s outlook has quickly become a litmus test for its turnaround claims. Traders are now left weighing if Thursday marked a real shift in expectations, or if the recovery remains on shaky ground.
Just a day before, the parent company of Clinique and M.A.C bumped up its annual forecasts, yet even with the revised numbers, it couldn’t clear Wall Street’s expectations. Demand in the Americas continues to lag, and shares tumbled sharply. The company put out projections for full-year adjusted earnings per share in the $2.05 to $2.25 range and net sales growth somewhere between 3% and 5%—both midpoint figures landing under what analysts had penciled in. A $100 million tariff drag is still on deck for annual profit in the back half of the year, management said. Third-quarter margins? They’re bracing for a 50-basis-point dip. Evercore ISI’s Robert Ottenstein summed up the sticking point: “A key area of focus remains the Americas, where sales improved sequentially to flat, but U.S. market share gains did not translate into retailer orders.” 1
Estee Lauder posted a 6% rise in fiscal second-quarter net sales, reaching $4.23 billion. Stripping out currency impacts and similar factors, organic net sales climbed 4%. “We delivered excellent second quarter results to solidify a strong first half of fiscal 2026,” CEO Stéphane de La Faverie said. The company is still flagging about $100 million in tariff headwinds, after planned mitigation, and set its quarterly dividend at 35 cents a share, payable March 16 to holders on record as of Feb. 27. 2
Some analysts say the drop wasn’t really tied to the quarter itself—the real issue was a market positioned for a beat-and-raise. Raymond James’s Olivia Tong noted the shares were falling “as strong results meet high expectations,” and pointed out that the outlook for the second half “reflects some conservatism” while spending ticks up on innovation. 3
Citi bumped Estee Lauder up to a “buy” rating on Friday, leaving its $120 price target in place. Analysts blamed the recent post-earnings slide more on outsized expectations and a setback in travel retail, not any major weakness in the underlying business. Citi flagged travel retail disruptions during a temporary operator transition in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as softer numbers coming out of Japan and Korea. 4
Shares rebounded, with broader equities finding their footing Friday following a turbulent stretch sparked by concerns around aggressive AI-driven spending and a pronounced shift away from risk. 5
Still, the stock faces challenges. Should airport duty-free demand stay weak, or tariffs end up hitting harder—triggering deeper discounts—the margin strategy could take another hit. Markets haven’t hesitated to punish even a hint of sluggishness.
The real test for investors lands May 1, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, when the company unveils its fiscal third-quarter results and hosts its conference call. That’s when traders dig in for details on travel retail, progress on tariff mitigation, and signs that U.S. orders might finally be tracking those market share gains. 6
