Ethereum Price on December 1, 2025: Why ETH Fell Below $2,850 and What It Means for 2026

Ethereum (ETH) kicked off December under pressure, trading around the $2,800–$2,850 zone after a sharp sell-off hit the entire crypto market on December 1, 2025. Multiple market data providers and news outlets report that Ether has dropped about 5–6% in the last 24 hours, with intraday lows near $2,810 and a daily close around $2,840. ^[1]

At the same time, Ethereum is down more than 20% over the past month, giving back a large chunk of its autumn gains as leveraged traders are flushed out and ETF flows flip negative. ^[2]

All of this is happening just two days before Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade on December 3, 2025, a major network hard fork that many analysts see as a key fundamental catalyst for the next phase of ETH’s price action. ^[3]

Below is a detailed look at today’s Ethereum price, the latest news driving the move, the Fusaka upgrade, and fresh ETH price forecasts for 2025–2026 from banks, analysts, AI models, and crypto research sites.

Ethereum price today: ETH slides back toward $2,800

Across major exchanges and data aggregators, Ethereum on December 1, 2025 is:

Trading roughly in the $2,800–$2,850 range, after failing to hold above $3,000. ^[4]
Down around 6% on the day, underperforming some large-cap altcoins but broadly in line with Bitcoin’s ~5% drop. ^[5]
Capping off a brutal November, where Ethereum’s monthly decline is estimated at over 20%, driven largely by ETF outflows and heavy deleveraging. ^[6]

Market-wide, the total crypto market cap has slipped to roughly $3.0–3.1 trillion, with ETH’s share weakened by stronger drawdowns compared to Bitcoin in recent weeks. ^[7]

What’s driving today’s Ethereum sell-off?

Today’s ETH drop isn’t happening in isolation. It’s part of a broader crypto market shakeout shaped by three main forces:

1. ETF outflows and profit-taking after the run-up

Ethereum is on track to close November with about a 21% monthly loss, after around $1.28 billion in US spot Ethereum ETF outflows and early-month whale selling put persistent pressure on price. ^[8]
While some large players flipped back to building long positions near the $2,950–$3,000 region, that support is now being tested as price dips below it. ^[9]

2. Leverage wipe-out and thin liquidity

Multiple reports highlight hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged crypto positions being liquidated as prices dropped, with estimates around $400–$600 million in forced liquidations across BTC, ETH and other majors. ^[10]
Thin weekend and early-Monday liquidity amplified the move, with Bitcoin sliding to the mid-$80,000s and Ethereum dropping more than 6% intraday. ^[11]

3. Macro uncertainty and risk-off sentiment

Analysts point to tightening liquidity and cautious macro sentiment as a headwind. Funding rates and leverage have largely reset to neutral, which could set the stage for a rebound, but risk appetite remains fragile. ^[12]
Markets are looking ahead to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions in December, with risk assets (including crypto) reacting sharply to any hint that rates might stay higher for longer. ^[13]

In short, today’s Ethereum price weakness sits at the intersection of macro risk-off, ETF outflows, and a leverage flush, rather than a single project-specific failure.

Fusaka upgrade on December 3: the bullish catalyst in a bearish tape

While price action is currently bearish, fundamentals look very different. On December 3, 2025, Ethereum will activate the Fusaka upgrade on mainnet — its second major hard fork of the year after Pectra. ^[14]

Key features of Fusaka, according to Ethereum Foundation posts, research articles and exchange primers, include: ^[15]

Much higher block gas limit
- Expected jump from around 45M to roughly 150M gas per block, significantly boosting L1 data capacity.
PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling)
- A new data-availability system designed to make it more efficient for rollups to post data to Ethereum L1, which is key for scaling.
Verkle trees & efficiency upgrades
- Structural changes to Ethereum’s state data that should help make nodes more efficient and potentially lower hardware requirements over time.
Cheaper and faster Layer 2s
- By giving rollups more space and cheaper data, Fusaka is expected to reduce transaction costs and latencyon L2s like Arbitrum, Optimism and zkSync.

Research from trading platforms and analytics sites frames Fusaka as a continuation of Ethereum’s “Surge” roadmap, pushing the network toward higher throughput and better UX, especially for DeFi and NFTs. ^[16]

Several market commentators explicitly link Fusaka to potential medium-term upside in ETH, arguing that successful execution could improve sentiment even if the near-term environment remains choppy. ^[17]

Short-term Ethereum price analysis: key levels to watch in December

Technical analysts covering ETH on December 1 are mostly focused on a cluster of crucial price levels:

$2,600–$2,800: local support & liquidation zone
- Some on-chain and derivatives data suggests that if ETH falls below ~$2,600, cumulative long liquidations across major centralized exchanges could approach $1 billion. ^[18]
- A bearish “bear-flag” pattern identified by certain analysts points to a possible downside target near $2,140 if this zone breaks decisively. ^[19]
$2,950–$3,000: psychological and technical pivot
- Several intraday analyses earlier today highlighted $3,000 as the immediate battleground: holding above it opened a path to $3,200–$3,400, while losing it raised the risk of a drop toward $2,800 — which is essentially what the market is now testing. ^[20]
- Short-term oscillators (RSI, MACD) in some reports show neutral to slightly bearish momentum, consistent with a corrective phase rather than outright capitulation. ^[21]
$3,170: “make-or-break” resistance
- Multiple research notes flag $3,170 as a critical confirmation level: reclaiming and holding above it would suggest that the current drawdown was a corrective “reset” rather than the start of a deeper bear trend. ^[22]
- Analysts link a break of $3,170 with potential follow-through rallies toward $3,500–$3,600, especially if Fusaka is perceived as a success and ETF flows stabilize. ^[23]

At the very short-term trading level, Ethereum appears to be in a decision zone: either it successfully defends the high-$2,000s and reclaims $3,000+, or a deeper washout toward the mid-$2,000s cannot be ruled out.

Ethereum price forecasts for 2025–2026: what analysts and models are saying

Forecasts published around December 1, 2025 span a huge range, underlining how uncertain the outlook remains.

1. AI and model-based predictions

AI models near $3,300–$3,400 for today
- A widely cited AI model (based on OpenAI tech) projected Ethereum to trade near $3,300–$3,420 on December 1, 2025, with strong support around $3,300 and “limited downside risk.” ^[24]
- The actual price below $2,900 shows how quickly sentiment and leverage can overwhelm even sophisticated models.
Long-horizon algorithmic tables
- Some price-prediction dashboards and aggregators publish multi-year tables that put Ethereum’s average price in 2025 above $6,000, with hypothetical values reaching into the tens of thousands of dollars by 2030 and beyond — numbers that depend on aggressive growth assumptions and should be treated as very speculative. ^[25]

2. Bank and institutional forecasts

Citi / deVere Group – moderately bullish
- A recent note highlighted by deVere cites a Citi forecast that Ethereum could reach around $5,440 within 12 months, assuming continued institutional adoption and ETF inflows. ^[26]
Tom Lee (Fundstrat) – strongly bullish after a dip
- Fundstrat’s Tom Lee suggests Ethereum might dip toward $2,500 in the near term before potentially surging to the $7,000–$9,000 range by early 2026, citing ETH’s strong developer ecosystem and its role in tokenization and settlement. ^[27]

3. Crypto-native research & retail-focused outlooks

Several exchange and research blogs see $4,000–$4,200 as a reasonable upside target by year-end or early 2026if Fusaka executes smoothly and macro conditions don’t deteriorate further. ^[28]
Others are more cautious, warning that the recent breakdown opens the door to a test of $2,400–$2,600 before any sustainable rally, especially if ETF outflows or macro shocks persist. ^[29]

The bottom line on forecasts:

Bullish camps see ETH heading to $4,000–$5,500+ over the next 12 months, with more aggressive voices calling for $7,000–$9,000. ^[30]
More conservative or neutral models cluster nearer to $3,000–$3,500 for 2026. ^[31]
Bearish scenarios highlight the risk of a retest of the low-$2,000s if key supports fail and macro conditions worsen. ^[32]

None of these are guarantees. They’re scenarios, and today’s surprise downside move versus AI projections is a good reminder of how speculative all crypto forecasts are.

On-chain & derivatives data: reset or start of a bigger downtrend?

Recent on-chain and derivatives commentary paints a mixed, but slightly constructive, picture for Ethereum:

Leverage reset & normalized funding rates
- Analysts note that funding rates have cooled from clearly positive levels back toward neutral, suggesting that much of the speculative long leverage has already been flushed out — a necessary condition for a healthier base to form. ^[33]
NUPL & “June-style reset” discussion
- Several reports compare current conditions to a prior “reset” phase, where on-chain metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dipped before a strong rebound. Some see the $2,400–$2,500 area as a potential washout zone if sentiment deteriorates further. ^[34]
Liquidation clusters above and below price
- Data shared by derivatives dashboards indicates that if ETH breaks below ~$2,600, nearly $1 billion in long positions could be at risk of liquidation, whereas reclaiming and holding above $2,900–$3,000 could put over $1 billion of short positions in danger — potentially fueling a sharp short squeeze. ^[35]

Taken together, on-chain and derivatives data suggest that a lot of speculative froth has already been burned off, but the market has not yet clearly chosen between a deeper capitulation and a post-Fusaka recovery rally.

Bull, base, and bear scenarios for ETH after the Fusaka upgrade

Based on the latest research, commentary, and technicals published around December 1, here’s how many analysts are framing the next 3–6 months for Ethereum:

Bull case: Successful Fusaka + macro relief

Conditions:

Fusaka rolls out smoothly on December 3, with no major technical disruptions.
ETF outflows slow or reverse, and macro data improves enough for markets to start pricing in rate cuts in 2026. ^[36]

Implications often discussed:

ETH reclaims $3,000, breaks $3,170, and squeezes shorts toward the $3,500–$4,200 area. ^[37]
More optimistic institutional forecasts in the $5,000–$9,000 range become plausible if this momentum extends into late 2026, particularly if tokenization and DeFi activity re-accelerate. ^[38]

Base case: Choppy range with gradual uptrend

Conditions:

Fusaka succeeds technically but is mostly “priced in”, with no immediate explosion in usage.
Macro stays mixed, and ETF flows alternate between small inflows and outflows.

Implications often raised:

ETH chops between roughly $2,400 and $3,500, with rallies repeatedly failing near $3,170–$3,500 before eventually establishing a higher range. ^[39]
Many model-based predictions in the $3,000–$4,000 band for 2026 essentially assume some version of this scenario. ^[40]

Bear case: Deeper reset before the next cycle

Conditions:

Fusaka faces technical issues or delays, or macro shocks (e.g., renewed inflation fears, sharp risk-asset sell-off) hit at the same time.
ETF outflows persist, and leveraged longs continue to get squeezed.

Implications analysts warn about:

ETH loses the $2,600 level, triggering a cascade toward $2,200–$2,400, with some chart patterns even pointing to lows near $2,140 as a bear-flag target. ^[41]
Long-term investors may treat such levels as an accumulation opportunity, but it would likely be painful for late-cycle buyers and overleveraged traders.

What this means for traders and long-term investors

For short-term traders, current conditions mean:

Volatility around the Fusaka upgrade window (Dec 3) is likely to be elevated.
Key levels to watch include $2,600 (major downside risk), $2,800 (current battle zone), $3,000 (psychological pivot) and $3,170 (trend confirmation). ^[42]

For long-term holders, the story is more about:

Fundamentals continuing to improve (scaling, cheaper L2s, stronger DeFi infrastructure) even while price experiences large cyclical swings. ^[43]
A highly uncertain range of outcomes, from conservative 5% annualized growth models to bullish bank and AI forecasts that assume much higher adoption and capital inflows. ^[44]

In all cases, today’s divergence between AI projections around $3,300+ and the actual price below $2,900 underscores how unpredictable crypto markets remain, especially around leverage resets and macro shocks. ^[45]

Key takeaways on Ethereum price today

ETH is trading around $2,800–$2,850 on December 1, 2025, down about 5–6% in 24 hours and more than 20% over the past month. ^[46]
The drop is driven by a mix of ETF outflows, leveraged liquidations, and macro risk-off, not a specific failure of Ethereum itself. ^[47]
The Fusaka upgrade on December 3 is a major fundamental catalyst, boosting Ethereum’s scalability via a higher gas limit, PeerDAS, and other EIPs focused on L2 efficiency. ^[48]
Short-term price action is orbiting crucial levels: $2,600 (risk of deeper capitulation), $2,800–$3,000 (current range), and $3,170 (key breakout confirmation). ^[49]
Forecasts for 2025–2026 span everything from sub-$3,000 base cases to $5,000–$9,000 bullish scenarios, highlighting how wide the range of possible outcomes remains. ^[50]

Important note:
Nothing in this article is financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and can result in substantial or total capital loss. Always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and if needed, consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.