New York, Feb 14, 2026, 16:56 EST — The session wrapped up with the market now closed.
- Expedia dropped roughly 6.6% Friday, with investors zeroing in on the travel giant’s weaker margin forecast for the full year.
- The company bumped up its dividend and is now projecting stronger bookings and revenue for 2026, coming off a better-than-expected fourth quarter.
- Wall Street comes back Tuesday with analysts trimming targets, but travel demand still appears resilient.
Expedia Group fell 6.6% to wrap up Friday at $212.67, slipping further after earnings. Shares earlier hit a session low of $204.52 before the closing bell.
The selloff is significant: Expedia has been working to reassure investors about its ability to grow profit margins, even as travel demand shows signs of wavering and talk of more discounting resurfaces. Judging by how the stock moved, the market remains focused on margins for the coming year, not so much on bookings.
Vrbo’s parent company projected a stronger adjusted core profit margin for the first quarter on Thursday, but kept its tone “appropriately cautious due to ongoing macro uncertainty.” The company flagged uneven consumer spending as goods prices climb and U.S. trade policy shifts. According to finance chief Scott Schenkel, the quarter’s margin boost will hinge on one-off items and cost reduction moves. CEO Ariane Gorin highlighted aggressive bargain-hunting, noting, “We had 70% more partners participating on our Black Friday sales than we have ever had.” Reuters
Expedia’s fourth-quarter results showed gross bookings up 11% to $27.0 billion, with revenue also climbing 11% to $3.55 billion. Adjusted earnings landed at $3.78 per share. Looking ahead, the company’s outlook for 2026 is calling for gross bookings between $127 billion and $129 billion, and revenue in a $15.6 billion to $16.0 billion range. Expedia also bumped up its quarterly dividend by 20%, now set at $0.48 per share, payable March 26 to shareholders of record as of March 5. “We delivered a strong finish to a great year and expect our positive momentum to continue in 2026,” Gorin said. ir.expediagroup.com
Gross bookings, which measure the total value of travel sold across Expedia’s sites, serve as a main gauge of demand. Adjusted EBITDA, on the other hand, is closely watched as it leaves out interest, taxes, and certain non-cash expenses. What grabs traders’ attention: the portion of that demand actually making its way into margins—particularly as marketing and tech spending shift.
Stocks turned in a choppy performance Friday after fresh inflation data landed below forecasts, while travel name Expedia slumped. U.S. exchanges shutter Monday for Presidents Day.
Analysts wasted no time. Piper Sandler took its price target down to $225 from $250, sticking with neutral. TD Cowen dropped its target to $260 from $300 and stayed at hold. Cantor Fitzgerald shaved down its target to $245 from $285, maintaining a neutral view and flagging uncertainty over how online travel platforms will adapt as AI disrupts search and booking.
Next week, eyes will be on the stock to see if it regains its footing when trading picks up again Tuesday. Investors are also sizing up whether that first-quarter margin boost from management can really stick, or if it disappears with the one-offs. Comments on cloud costs or marketing efficiency could quickly sway sentiment.
Here’s the risk: a bigger consumer shift to cheaper options or too much deal-driven inventory could eat into Expedia’s margins looking toward 2026. On top of that, a few analysts are pointing to AI as a potential long-term drag on traffic and customer growth, with at least one trimming online travel price targets over those very worries.
Despite the drop on Friday, Expedia remains far below its 52-week peak of $303.80. That gap gives investors plenty of room to debate valuation against execution.
Expedia’s first $0.48 quarterly dividend is slated for March 26, after the March 5 record date—mark those calendars. Tuesday brings a more urgent checkpoint, as investors weigh whether Friday’s guidance reset did the trick.
