London, 21 January 2026, 13:56 GMT
Experian shares dropped to a 19-month low on Wednesday, tumbling as much as 7% in London trading. The credit data firm maintained its full-year outlook despite reporting 8% organic revenue growth—excluding acquisitions and currency effects—in the third quarter. Analyst Andrew Ripper of Panmure Liberum cited a weak U.S. dollar, President Donald Trump’s plan to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, concerns over artificial intelligence, and Fair Isaac’s move to sell credit scores directly to mortgage lenders as factors weighing on investor sentiment. Experian told analysts on a call that much of the potential impact from a credit-card rate cap, if implemented, would likely fall on consumers. (Reuters)
How the market reacts is crucial since Experian often signals trends in lending. When banks increase credit checks, mortgage inquiries, and fraud screening, the credit bureaus typically see a jump in volumes.
Investor attention has returned to that sensitivity as they seek clearer evidence that U.S. consumer credit and housing activity have stabilized. For Experian and similar companies, conditions can change fast, with share prices often adjusting ahead of any changes in volume.
Experian reported a 12% rise in revenue from ongoing activities for the quarter ended Dec. 31, or 10% on a constant currency basis, with organic revenue climbing 8%. North America led growth with a 10% organic increase, followed by Latin America at 6%, the UK and Ireland at 3%, and EMEA and Asia Pacific also at 3%. The company noted that its B2B sales were flat in Latin America and the UK and Ireland. CEO Brian Cassin described the quarter as delivering “strong Q3 growth” and confirmed the group remains on track to meet full-year targets. (Experian)
The update revealed a divide investors have tracked for months: consumer-facing products continue to carry more weight in certain markets, while commercial demand remains uneven amid weaker economies.
Jefferies analyst Allen Wells called the 8% organic growth “in line with expectations,” noting that “underlying trends remain solid.” He highlighted North America and Latin America consumer services as strong performers. Experian stuck to its FY26 guidance, projecting total revenue growth of 11% and organic growth at 8%. The company also maintained its margin forecast, anticipating a 30–50 basis point improvement excluding FX — with a basis point being one-hundredth of a percentage point. (Investing)
In London, Proactive Investors pointed to “distractions” overshadowing an otherwise in-line update, highlighting currency fluctuations, U.S. policy risks, and mounting competitive pressure on credit scores. Panmure Liberum analysts told clients the share drop ran counter to their earnings growth forecasts. They labeled the valuation reset a “buying opportunity,” calling Experian’s competitive position “rock solid.” (Proactiveinvestors UK)
Competitive pressure is mounting. Fair Isaac, widely recognized as FICO, is now aiming to sell specific credit scores straight to mortgage lenders. This shift threatens to sideline bureaus as intermediaries in segments of the market.
Yet the route from a “steady quarter” to a “steady share price” isn’t straightforward. Any tougher blow to credit card economics from a rate cap, slower lending growth, or quicker shifts in lender use of data and AI could pressure volumes and pricing. On top of that, currency fluctuations may skew reported results for a company that reports in U.S. dollars.
Experian announced it will report its full-year results for the period ending March 31, 2026, on May 20.
