- Q3 Results: ExxonMobil (XOM) reported strong Q3 2025 earnings – adjusted EPS $1.88 vs ~$1.82 consensus – on roughly $85–87 billion salesreuters.cominvesting.com. (GAAP EPS was $1.76) Cash flow was robust ($14.8 B from operations, $6.3 B free cash)corporate.exxonmobil.com1 .
- Production Records: The company set new production highs. Guyana oil output topped ~700,000 bpd and Permian Basin output ~1.7 million boe/daycorporate.exxonmobil.comnasdaq.com. Eight major projects came online in 2025 (Yellowtail, etc.), with two more due by year-endcorporate.exxonmobil.comnasdaq.com. CEO Darren Woods said, “No one else in our industry is executing at this scale, with this level of innovation, or delivering this kind of value.”2
- Stock Price & Targets: XOM shares are trading in the mid-$110s (around $114–115), near the top of their 52-week $97.8–$123 rangets2.techmarketbeat.com. Wall Street’s consensus is “Moderate Buy,” with an average 12‑month target near ~$127 (≈10% above current)ts2.techtradingview.com. Some bullish analysts see even higher targets: e.g. Wells Fargo’s Sam Margolin has an Overweight rating with a $156 price targetwebull.com. Chart indicators are positive: XOM is up ~3% in 1 month, ~8% in 6 months, trading above key moving averages3 .
- Shareholder Returns: Exxon returned ~$9.4 B to shareholders in Q3 (about $4.2 B dividends + $5.1 B buybacks)corporate.exxonmobil.comnasdaq.com. It raised its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.03/share (payable Dec 10), continuing 43 straight years of increasescorporate.exxonmobil.com. The 3.5% yield on the new $4.12 annual payout is among the highest in the S&P 500ts2.tech. CEO Woods emphasized that rising production and cost savings allow Exxon to keep a “fortress-like” balance sheet (net-debt/capital ~9.5%) even while funding buybackscorporate.exxonmobil.com4 .
- Oil Market Context: Oil prices remain subdued (Brent ~$64–65) as OPEC+ has kept output high despite slower demand. Analysts warn of oversupply: the IEA now sees a 2026 oil surplus, and DBS’s Suvro Sarkar notes OPEC’s strategy seems aimed at market share rather than pricests2.tech. Lower oil prices (down ~13% YoY in Q3) have weighed on profits, but Exxon’s advantaged assets and cost cuts have offset much of this dragcorporate.exxonmobil.com5 .
- Legal/Regulatory News: In other headlines, Exxon is pushing back on climate regulations – notably suing California over new climate-disclosure laws (arguing First-Amendment “free speech” grounds)reuters.com. CEO Woods has also criticized some EU climate rules as “bone-crushing”ts2.tech. These political/legal battles add an unusual dimension to Exxon’s outlook.
In-Depth Analysis: ExxonMobil’s Q3 beat confirms its resilience. The company posted adjusted earnings of $8.1 B ($1.88/sh), topping analysts’ $1.82 estimatereuters.com. However, higher capital spending (e.g. Permian acreage buys) drove free cash flow down from last year, a point noted by TPH analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon: “higher expenditures counteracted what was otherwise positive earnings news”reuters.com. Still, the core business is firing on all cylinders – Guyana and Permian field outputs set records, and refining margins were strong enough that analysts estimate refining alone added up to $700 M of Q3 profitreuters.com. Exxon’s upstream earnings ($5.7 B in Q3) rose vs Q2, thanks to those volume gains6 .
The balance sheet is impressively healthy. Exxon now has the lowest net-debt ratios in the industry (net debt ≈9.5% of capital)corporate.exxonmobil.com. Management reiterated disciplined spending: 2025 capex is expected to come in at the low end of the $27–29 B rangecorporate.exxonmobil.com. Dividends and buybacks remain priorities; CFO Kathryn Mikells said the company feels “we’re in a pretty good place” financiallyreuters.com. The new $1.03 dividend (Q4) yields ~3.5%, making Exxon attractive to income investors. Indeed, $27.8 B was returned to shareholders YTD (≈$15 B buybacks, $12.9 B dividends)corporate.exxonmobil.com – a level often noted when talking about Exxon’s capital allocation.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Current consensus targets (~$125–130) imply roughly 8–12% upsidets2.tech. Technical analysts point to a recent consolidation: XOM has been bumping up against resistance near $119ts2.tech, so a decisive breakout could fuel further gains. On longer-term forecasts, models vary: some equity analysts see only mid-single-digit EPS growth in 2026 (about $7.4–7.5 EPS), while others put 2026–27 targets as high as the mid-$130s to $150sts2.tech. (These higher targets assume oil stays well-supported.) Notably, Wells Fargo’s Sam Margolin told clients he’s “buying value” here and set a $156 targetwebull.com, though most models are more conservative.
Behind these forecasts lie oil-market fundamentals. After a Q3 Brent average of ~$68 (vs ~$78 a year ago)reuters.com, analysts focus on 2026. Barclays’ Betty Jiang says investors will watch majors’ commentary on tariffs and the gas outlook into early 2026reuters.com. With OPEC+ recently adding ~2.7 M bpd since springts2.tech, many expect oil to hover in the $65–70 range next year, capping some upside. On the demand side, IEA notes global oil demand growth is slowing (~0.8% in 2024ts2.tech), partly due to efficiency and EVs. In this environment, Exxon’s projects (Guyana/Permian growth) and disciplined costs give it an edge. As Darren Woods emphasized, “the industry has to bring on more barrels just to stand still,” so Exxon is playing a long-term game by locking in low-cost production now7 .
Forecast & Takeaway: Going into the Nov 3 open, Exxon’s shares look poised for modest upside but face headwinds if oil softens. Current range-bound trading suggests a catalyst is needed – likely oil price moves or earnings guidance. Near-term, expect volatility: analysts warn some value is already priced in. But Exxon’s strong cash flow and returns offer a safety net; as one commentator put it, even with spending up “we feel like we’re in a pretty good place”8 .
