- Q3 Results: ExxonMobil (XOM) reported strong Q3 2025 earnings – adjusted EPS $1.88 vs ~$1.82 consensus – on roughly $85–87 billion sales [1] [2]. (GAAP EPS was $1.76) Cash flow was robust ($14.8 B from operations, $6.3 B free cash) [3] [4].
- Production Records: The company set new production highs. Guyana oil output topped ~700,000 bpd and Permian Basin output ~1.7 million boe/day [5] [6]. Eight major projects came online in 2025 (Yellowtail, etc.), with two more due by year-end [7] [8]. CEO Darren Woods said, “No one else in our industry is executing at this scale, with this level of innovation, or delivering this kind of value.” [9]
- Stock Price & Targets: XOM shares are trading in the mid-$110s (around $114–115), near the top of their 52-week $97.8–$123 range [10] [11]. Wall Street’s consensus is “Moderate Buy,” with an average 12‑month target near ~$127 (≈10% above current) [12] [13]. Some bullish analysts see even higher targets: e.g. Wells Fargo’s Sam Margolin has an Overweight rating with a $156 price target [14]. Chart indicators are positive: XOM is up ~3% in 1 month, ~8% in 6 months, trading above key moving averages [15].
- Shareholder Returns: Exxon returned ~$9.4 B to shareholders in Q3 (about $4.2 B dividends + $5.1 B buybacks) [16] [17]. It raised its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.03/share (payable Dec 10), continuing 43 straight years of increases [18]. The 3.5% yield on the new $4.12 annual payout is among the highest in the S&P 500 [19]. CEO Woods emphasized that rising production and cost savings allow Exxon to keep a “fortress-like” balance sheet (net-debt/capital ~9.5%) even while funding buybacks [20] [21].
- Oil Market Context: Oil prices remain subdued (Brent ~$64–65) as OPEC+ has kept output high despite slower demand. Analysts warn of oversupply: the IEA now sees a 2026 oil surplus, and DBS’s Suvro Sarkar notes OPEC’s strategy seems aimed at market share rather than prices [22]. Lower oil prices (down ~13% YoY in Q3) have weighed on profits, but Exxon’s advantaged assets and cost cuts have offset much of this drag [23] [24].
- Legal/Regulatory News: In other headlines, Exxon is pushing back on climate regulations – notably suing California over new climate-disclosure laws (arguing First-Amendment “free speech” grounds) [25]. CEO Woods has also criticized some EU climate rules as “bone-crushing” [26]. These political/legal battles add an unusual dimension to Exxon’s outlook.
In-Depth Analysis: ExxonMobil’s Q3 beat confirms its resilience. The company posted adjusted earnings of $8.1 B ($1.88/sh), topping analysts’ $1.82 estimate [27]. However, higher capital spending (e.g. Permian acreage buys) drove free cash flow down from last year, a point noted by TPH analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon: “higher expenditures counteracted what was otherwise positive earnings news” [28]. Still, the core business is firing on all cylinders – Guyana and Permian field outputs set records, and refining margins were strong enough that analysts estimate refining alone added up to $700 M of Q3 profit [29]. Exxon’s upstream earnings ($5.7 B in Q3) rose vs Q2, thanks to those volume gains [30].
The balance sheet is impressively healthy. Exxon now has the lowest net-debt ratios in the industry (net debt ≈9.5% of capital) [31]. Management reiterated disciplined spending: 2025 capex is expected to come in at the low end of the $27–29 B range [32]. Dividends and buybacks remain priorities; CFO Kathryn Mikells said the company feels “we’re in a pretty good place” financially [33]. The new $1.03 dividend (Q4) yields ~3.5%, making Exxon attractive to income investors. Indeed, $27.8 B was returned to shareholders YTD (≈$15 B buybacks, $12.9 B dividends) [34] – a level often noted when talking about Exxon’s capital allocation.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Current consensus targets (~$125–130) imply roughly 8–12% upside [35]. Technical analysts point to a recent consolidation: XOM has been bumping up against resistance near $119 [36], so a decisive breakout could fuel further gains. On longer-term forecasts, models vary: some equity analysts see only mid-single-digit EPS growth in 2026 (about $7.4–7.5 EPS), while others put 2026–27 targets as high as the mid-$130s to $150s [37]. (These higher targets assume oil stays well-supported.) Notably, Wells Fargo’s Sam Margolin told clients he’s “buying value” here and set a $156 target [38], though most models are more conservative.
Behind these forecasts lie oil-market fundamentals. After a Q3 Brent average of ~$68 (vs ~$78 a year ago) [39], analysts focus on 2026. Barclays’ Betty Jiang says investors will watch majors’ commentary on tariffs and the gas outlook into early 2026 [40]. With OPEC+ recently adding ~2.7 M bpd since spring [41], many expect oil to hover in the $65–70 range next year, capping some upside. On the demand side, IEA notes global oil demand growth is slowing (~0.8% in 2024 [42]), partly due to efficiency and EVs. In this environment, Exxon’s projects (Guyana/Permian growth) and disciplined costs give it an edge. As Darren Woods emphasized, “the industry has to bring on more barrels just to stand still,” so Exxon is playing a long-term game by locking in low-cost production now [43].
Forecast & Takeaway: Going into the Nov 3 open, Exxon’s shares look poised for modest upside but face headwinds if oil softens. Current range-bound trading suggests a catalyst is needed – likely oil price moves or earnings guidance. Near-term, expect volatility: analysts warn some value is already priced in. But Exxon’s strong cash flow and returns offer a safety net; as one commentator put it, even with spending up “we feel like we’re in a pretty good place” [44].
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. ts2.tech, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. ts2.tech, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.webull.com, 15. ts2.tech, 16. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 19. ts2.tech, 20. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. ts2.tech, 23. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 24. ts2.tech, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. ts2.tech, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 31. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 32. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 35. ts2.tech, 36. ts2.tech, 37. ts2.tech, 38. www.webull.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. ts2.tech, 42. ts2.tech, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.reuters.com
