FDX Stock Today: Latest FedEx News, Analyst Price Targets and 2026 Outlook (December 7, 2025)

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) heads into the heart of the holiday shipping season with its stock trading near recent highs, a major cost‑cutting program under way, grounded cargo jets creating short‑term uncertainty, and Amazon threatening to redraw the U.S. delivery landscape.

As of the last trading session on December 6, 2025, FedEx shares changed hands at roughly $274 per share, leaving the stock just below many 12‑month analyst targets and near the upper end of its 2025 range. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at the latest FDX stock news, key earnings developments, analyst forecasts and the strategic risks and opportunities that investors are watching right now.

Where FDX Stock Stands Right Now

Market data providers currently show FedEx trading at about 15–16 times trailing earnings and roughly 14–15 times forward earnings, putting the stock at a modest discount to many logistics peers on a price‑to‑earnings basis. ^[2]

Key snapshot metrics highlighted in recent coverage include: ^[3]

Trailing twelve‑month revenue around $88–89 billion
Trailing EPS about $17.1
Operating margin in the 6–7% range
Quarterly dividend of $1.45 per share (annualized $5.80), implying a yield of just over 2% at current prices
Balance sheet leverage with a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 1.3–1.4, and liquidity ratios (current and quick) modestly above 1x

Valuation services such as GuruFocus and Simply Wall St broadly describe FedEx as fairly valued to modestly undervalued on traditional multiples, given its earnings growth outlook and cash‑flow potential. ^[4]

Recent Earnings: Cost Cuts vs. Trade and Macro Headwinds

Q1 Fiscal 2026: Solid Beat, But Tariffs Bite

FedEx’s most recent reported quarter is Q1 fiscal 2026 (quarter ended August 31, 2025), released on September 18. The company delivered: ^[5]

Revenue of $22.2 billion, up about 3% year‑on‑year and ahead of analyst estimates
Adjusted EPS of $3.83, beating the consensus of roughly $3.71
Adjusted operating margin improving to about 5.8%, from roughly 5.6% a year earlier

Management credited structural cost reductions, a more flexible network, and resilient U.S. domestic package demand for the earnings beat. At the same time, FedEx flagged a significant trade headwind: the U.S. government’s decision to end long‑standing “de minimis” tariff exemptions for low‑value shipments from China and Hong Kong. That move reduced revenue by around $150 million in the first quarter alone and is expected to repeat each quarter, contributing to an estimated $1 billion annual headwind from trade policy changes. ^[6]

The company also: ^[7]

Completed $500 million of share repurchases in the quarter
Confirmed it is on track to spin off FedEx Freight as a separate, publicly traded company by June 2026
Continued to invest in business optimization tied to its large‑scale DRIVE and Network 2.0 initiatives

Q3 2025: Earlier EPS Miss and Guidance Cut

Before the Q1 FY26 beat, FedEx reported Q3 2025 results that were more mixed and triggered a bout of volatility. According to a recent synthesis of that quarter: ^[8]

Revenue came in near $22.2 billion, slightly above estimates
Adjusted EPS around $4.51 missed forecasts of about $4.61
Management cut full‑year EPS guidance from approximately $19–20 to $18–18.60, citing a weaker industrial economy, softer business‑to‑business demand, inflation pressures, the expiration of a U.S. Postal Service contract, and severe weather disruptions

The guidance cut and EPS miss sparked a roughly 5% after‑hours drop in the stock at the time, reinforcing the perception that FedEx’s earnings remain sensitive to macro cycles and one‑off operational shocks. ^[9]

Transformation Programs: DRIVE, Network 2.0 and Layoffs

FedEx’s investment narrative is dominated by its ongoing cost‑efficiency overhaul, centered on the DRIVE productivity program and its Network 2.0 restructuring of the U.S. ground and express footprint.

Key elements from recent disclosures and reporting include: ^[10]

A $1 billion cost‑saving goal for fiscal 2026 alone
Plans to generate roughly $2 billion in savings by 2027 from Network 2.0 by integrating Ground and Express and closing about 30% of U.S. distribution facilities
Already‑realized cost savings of around $600 million in a recent quarter, largely from reduced aircraft usage, facility consolidation and workforce optimization
A planned spin‑off of FedEx Freight by mid‑2026 as a separate company, intended to sharpen focus on core parcel operations

These restructuring efforts have real human and local‑economic consequences. Separate pieces on the real‑estate and logistics beat highlight: ^[11]

481 job cuts across Iowa, Nebraska, North Carolina and Texas as part of Network 2.0, including closure of large facilities in Greensboro, NC and Omaha, NE
An additional 856 job eliminations tied to the closure of a Texas logistics facility after a major customer shifted to another third‑party logistics provider

Taken together, these moves underscore FedEx’s willingness to shrink physical footprint and headcount to protect margins and fund network modernization. For investors, the key question is whether these savings translate into durable margin expansion without eroding service quality or long‑term capacity.

Holiday Disruption: Grounded Cargo Jets at Peak Season

A major narrative in early December is the grounding of aging cargo aircraft used by FedEx and UPS after a tragic explosion involving that fleet type. Multiple outlets report that both carriers have had to pull aircraft from service during the critical holiday shipping period, creating a potential capacity squeeze at exactly the wrong time. ^[12]

Analysis from 24/7 Wall St and Simply Wall St emphasizes several implications: ^[13]

Reduced air capacity could slow deliveries and raise operating costs if alternative lift must be secured
Overflow volume may migrate to the U.S. Postal Service and Amazon’s logistics network, increasing FedEx’s dependence on external partners and intensifying competition
Short‑term disruption tests the resilience of FedEx’s efficiency‑focused story: can DRIVE and Network 2.0 offset unexpected shocks, or do such incidents reveal structural vulnerabilities?

Simply Wall St notes that while the aircraft issue complicates the near‑term picture, it does not yet overturn the longer‑term thesis that cost and network efficiency are the key earnings drivers, with execution risk around the FedEx Freight separation remaining a central concern. ^[14]

Seasonal Volatility: December Has Not Been Kind to FedEx

Seasonality analysis has added another layer of caution. A recent piece drawing on 10 years of data shows FedEx as the third‑worst performer in the S&P 500 during December, with: ^[15]

An average 4.8% loss in December
A 20% monthly win rate (only two positive Decembers in the past decade)

Despite that history, FDX is up nearly 15% this quarter, after bouncing from technical support near $220 earlier in the fall, and has been testing its year‑to‑date breakeven level—now acting as a key resistance zone. ^[16]

The same report notes that FedEx’s post‑earnings performance has often been negative, with several sizeable drawdowns the day after earnings over the last eight reports. Options pricing implies relatively high implied volatility into the upcoming Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report on December 18, even though realized volatility has often come in lower than expected. ^[17]

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets for FDX Stock

Consensus View: “Moderate Buy”

MarketBeat’s aggregation of 28 Wall Street analyst opinions currently shows FedEx with a “Moderate Buy” consensus: ^[18]

1 Sell
11 Hold
15 Buy
1 Strong Buy

The average 12‑month price target stands near $278.88, implying low‑single‑digit upside from recent prices, with a high target of $345 and a low of $221.

Other data providers see a similar picture. GuruFocus notes a roughly $273–274 average target from about two dozen analysts, with a consensus recommendation corresponding to “Outperform” on its 1–5 scale. ^[19]

Recent Target Changes: Susquehanna vs. JPMorgan

Two recent moves highlight how divided the Street is on near‑term upside:

Susquehanna reaffirmed a “Positive” rating and raised its price target from $300 to $345 on December 4, citing sustained confidence in FedEx’s transformation and earnings power. ^[20]
JPMorgan lifted its target more modestly, from $274 to $285, maintaining a Neutral stance and arguing that near‑term upside appears limited after management already raised its fiscal Q2 outlook, especially with the aircraft grounding risk in the backdrop. ^[21]

Across November and early December, multiple brokers—including Stifel, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo—have nudged price targets higher, generally clustering between the mid‑$260s and low‑$300s, reflecting cautious optimism but not a high‑conviction “deep value” call. ^[22]

Valuation Models: Is FedEx Undervalued?

Quantitative valuation platforms have recently taken a closer look at whether FDX’s current price near the mid‑$270s understates its long‑term cash‑flow potential.

Discounted Cash‑Flow (DCF) Perspective

A detailed Simply Wall St model starts with FedEx’s latest free cash flow of roughly $2.6 billion, then projects it rising to about $4.6 billion by 2028 and $6.4 billion by 2035. Using a two‑stage DCF to equity, the analysis estimates an intrinsic value of about $347.63 per share, versus a recent market price around $270, implying roughly 22% upside under those assumptions. ^[23]

On a P/E basis, the same analysis notes that FedEx trades at about 15.5x earnings, a bit below the broader logistics sector’s approximate 16x and well below a peer‑group average north of 20x. Its internal “fair” multiple for FedEx is about 19.2x, again suggesting a discount relative to fundamentals. ^[24]

Narrative‑Driven Fair Value

Another Simply Wall St narrative piece, focused on the grounded jet situation, sketches a scenario in which FedEx’s revenue reaches about $95.1 billion and earnings $5.2 billion by 2028—implying modest 2–3% annual revenue growth from today’s base. That narrative yields a fair value estimate close to $271.93 per share, essentially in line with the current price, while community valuations on the platform span roughly $272 to $353. ^[25]

In other words, depending on the assumptions, FedEx screens anywhere from fairly valued to materially undervalued, with most model‑driven work clustering around modest upside rather than a huge dislocation.

Investor Sentiment: Bull and Bear Narratives

A recent “bull case theory” article summarized the long‑term bullish argument for FedEx: ^[26]

FedEx has a global scale, entrenched customer relationships, and a network that is difficult to replicate
The company has returned billions of dollars to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, supporting robust total shareholder return despite only moderate revenue growth
Its cost‑efficiency programs (DRIVE and Network 2.0) are structurally lowering the cost base and should support double‑digit returns on equity over the cycle

However, that same analysis notes that return on invested capital has lagged FedEx’s estimated cost of capital, raising questions about whether all past investment has created adequate value. ^[27]

On the more cautious side, a recent (paywalled) analysis on Seeking Alpha reportedly downgraded FDX from Buy to Hold, arguing that after a strong share‑price run, the stock looked technically overbought and vulnerable to profit‑taking, even if the long‑term fundamentals remain sound. ^[28]

Competitive Landscape: Amazon, UPS and the USPS Shake‑Up

FedEx’s outlook cannot be separated from rapid changes in U.S. parcel delivery.

A Washington Post investigation this week reports that Amazon is preparing to expand its nationwide delivery network and potentially pull billions of parcels out of the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) by the end of 2026, after negotiations over new shipping agreements stalled. Amazon has been the Postal Service’s largest customer, contributing more than $6 billion of revenue in 2025. ^[29]

If Amazon shifts more volume to its own network, it could: ^[30]

Further strengthen Amazon’s position as a direct logistics competitor to FedEx and UPS
Weaken USPS finances, potentially pushing more shippers to private carriers—or accelerating policy changes that could affect pricing and competition
Increase pressure on FedEx to differentiate via service quality, integrated global reach and business‑to‑business capabilities

At the same time, FedEx’s traditional relationship with USPS has already changed; reporting on Network 2.0 notes that its long‑term last‑mile contract ended in 2024, shifting some volume to UPS and intensifying competition. ^[31]

Coupled with aircraft groundings and ongoing UPS labor dynamics, the near‑term parcel market looks unusually fluid—and FedEx’s ability to manage these cross‑currents is central to any FDX stock thesis heading into 2026.

What Wall Street Expects for 2026

Current earnings models compiled by MarketBeat forecast FedEx’s earnings to grow about 13% next year, from roughly $19.14 per share to $21.65 on a non‑GAAP basis. ^[32]

FedEx’s own fiscal 2026 guidance, provided alongside Q1 results, calls for: ^[33]

4–6% year‑over‑year revenue growth
Adjusted EPS of $17.20 to $19.00, excluding certain optimization, spin‑off and fiscal‑year‑change costs (and excluding pension mark‑to‑market adjustments)
Continued progress on permanent cost reductions of around $1 billion tied to DRIVE and Network 2.0
Completion of the FedEx Freight spin‑off by June 2026

Importantly, FedEx stresses that trade policy (especially the end of de minimis exemptions) represents a meaningful drag on revenue and earnings, and that macro uncertainty, fuel prices and geopolitical risks remain significant swing factors. ^[34]

The next big checkpoint is the Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings release, expected after the market close on December 18, 2025, where investors will look for updates on holiday‑season performance, tariff impacts, aircraft capacity, and progress on cost savings. ^[35]

Key Risks and Opportunities for FDX Stock

Main Risks

Recent coverage highlights several major risk areas for investors to monitor: ^[36]

Macroeconomic slowdown: Weak industrial production and B2B demand compress volume and pricing in FedEx’s higher‑margin segments
Trade policy and tariffs: Changes to de minimis rules are already a $1 billion headwind; further trade friction could exacerbate volume and mix pressures
Operational disruptions: Aircraft groundings, severe weather, and any execution missteps in Network 2.0 could create service issues and unplanned costs
Competitive pressure: Amazon’s expanding network and UPS’s own restructuring and labor positioning keep pricing power in check
Restructuring execution: Closing 30% of U.S. facilities, spinning off Freight and reducing workforce at scale involves integration risk and potential service disruption

Main Opportunities

On the upside, the bullish narrative rests on several pillars: ^[37]

Structural cost savings from DRIVE and Network 2.0 that should expand margins even if volume growth remains modest
Improving cash generation, enabling further dividends and buybacks
Rationalized network that better aligns air and ground capacity with demand, potentially boosting asset turns and return on capital
Freight spin‑off that could unlock value by allowing investors to separately value a more cyclical, asset‑heavy LTL operation
Attractive valuation on some DCF and relative‑multiple frameworks, with several independent models suggesting fair values in the high‑$200s to mid‑$300s

Bottom Line: How FDX Looks as of December 7, 2025

As of early December 2025, FDX stock sits in an interesting middle ground:

The headline fundamentals—earnings growth, cost savings, cash returns to shareholders—are moving in the right direction. ^[38]
The stock is not obviously cheap or expensive on consensus estimates, with most analysts calling for modest upside and rating it a Moderate Buy/Outperform. ^[39]
Independent valuation work paints a spectrum: from “roughly fairly valued” to “20%+ undervalued” depending on long‑term cash‑flow assumptions and risk premiums. ^[40]
Short‑term risk is elevated by holiday‑season aircraft groundings, seasonal December weakness, trade headwinds and a volatile macro backdrop. ^[41]

For news‑oriented readers and market participants, the story to watch over the coming weeks is how FedEx’s December 18 earnings update threads the needle between near‑term disruption and longer‑term transformation. The answer will likely shape whether FDX breaks out decisively above current price targets—or whether seasonal and macro gravity pull the stock back toward its recent support levels.