Fed, RBA, BoC and SNB: The Central‑Bank Heavy Economic Calendar for 8

The coming week is one of the most important of the year for macro traders. Between 8 and 15 December 2025, four major central banks meet, China releases fresh trade and inflation data, and Europe and the UK publish key inflation and growth numbers. All of it lands against a backdrop of moderating but still‑sticky global inflation and mounting political pressure for easier policy. ^[1]

Below is a detailed, day‑by‑day guide to the global economic calendar, plus the latest forecasts and market narratives as of 7 December 2025.

Big picture: Why this week matters

Policy turning point: The US Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Bank of Canada (BoC) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) all meet within three days. Markets see the Fed delivering another 25‑bp cut while the others mostly hold. ^[2]
Inflation near targets, but not quite “solved”:
- US CPI is running around 3% year‑on‑year and the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge around 2.8%, both above target but far from 2022’s peaks. ^[3]
- Eurozone inflation ticked up to 2.2% in November, “practically at target,” in the words of ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel. ^[4]
- Germany’s flash HICP for November printed 2.6%, with the final estimate due on Friday. ^[5]
Growth is lukewarm: UK GDP shrank 0.1% in September, and October’s data (out Friday) are expected to show near‑stagnation. ^[6]
Politics is reshaping inflation: Tariff policy, particularly in the US and between the EU and China, is now a key driver of inflation and trade flows, adding to the stakes around China’s trade and price data early in the week. ^[7]

In short: rates are no longer rising aggressively, but central banks are far from declaring victory. This week’s decisions and data will help determine how fast—if at all—policy can ease in 2026.

The main events: Four big central‑bank meetings

1. US Federal Reserve (FOMC) – Wednesday 10 December

What: FOMC rate decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference
When: Statement and SEP at 14:00 ET; Powell at 14:30 ET (Wednesday US time) ^[8]
Current policy: Federal funds target range 3.75–4.00% after an October cut. ^[9]
Market pricing: About an 80–85% implied probability of another 25‑bp cut to 3.50–3.75%. ^[10]

The Fed’s internal divisions, rather than the move itself, are the real story. At least five of the twelve voting FOMC members have publicly questioned the need for further cuts, while three Board governors actively support one. Three or more dissents would be the largest split since 2019. ^[11]

Complicating the Fed’s job is a data backlog caused by a 43‑day government shutdown, which has delayed the November jobs report until after the meeting. Jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level in over three years, suggesting the labour market is softening but far from collapsing. ^[12]

What to watch in the Fed decision

The vote tally:
- A narrow vote with multiple dissents would signal deep disagreement and could make future cuts harder to deliver.
The new “dot plot”:
- The SEP is likely to show only limited further easing in 2026, consistent with the OECD’s view that rate‑cutting cycles in major economies will largely end by 2026. ^[13]
Powell’s tone on tariffs and inflation:
- Tariffs have pushed parts of US inflation above 3%, even as overall CPI and PCE hover near 3%. Powell’s comments on how durable this pressure is could move both the dollar and the long end of the Treasury curve. ^[14]

For markets, a “cut‑with‑hawkish‑guidance” mix is the base case. A larger‑than‑expected bloc of hawkish dissents, or strong language about keeping rates higher for longer, would be dollar‑positive and negative for rate‑sensitive equities.

2. Reserve Bank of Australia – Tuesday 9 December

What: Cash‑rate decision and Governor’s statement
When: 14:30 Sydney time; next scheduled update on the RBA’s website is explicitly set for 9 December 2025. ^[15]
Current policy: Cash rate 3.60% since November. ^[16]
Consensus: A firm hold at 3.60%—all 38 economists in a recent Reuters poll expect no change. ^[17]

Australia’s inflation has re‑accelerated to around 3.2%, nudging above the top of the RBA’s 2–3% target band, while the labour market remains tight with unemployment near 4.3%. ^[18]

Markets have shifted from expecting cuts in 2026 to assuming a “high for longer” stance; many analysts now see the cash rate locked at 3.60% well into 2026, with futures even pricing some chance of a hike late next year. ^[19]

Key focus points

Any hint that the Board is moving closer to renewed hikes if inflation does not cool.
Updated language on the housing market and household debt, which the RBA repeatedly cites as central to its risk assessment. ^[20]

AUD volatility typically spikes around the statement and Governor’s press conference. A surprise hawkish tilt could push the Aussie higher, particularly if the Fed sounds more cautious the following day.

3. Bank of Canada – Wednesday 10 December

What: Interest‑rate announcement and press conference
When: Rate decision at 09:45 ET, Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference around 10:30 ET. ^[21]
Current policy: Overnight rate 2.25% after a 25‑bp cut on 29 October. ^[22]
Consensus: Another hold at 2.25%; economists surveyed by Reuters do not expect further cuts until at least 2027. ^[23]

After delivering 275 bp of cumulative cuts, one of the most aggressive easing cycles among G10 central banks, the BoC has signalled a pause. Inflation has cooled to near target but remains sensitive to housing costs and a still‑solid labour market. ^[24]

What markets care about

Updated language on housing and household leverage, where activity is starting to respond to lower borrowing costs. ^[25]
Any pushback against market expectations that the BoC will lag the Fed if the FOMC keeps cutting.

A dovish Fed cut paired with a steady, more cautious BoC could support the Canadian dollar through the week.

4. Swiss National Bank – Thursday 11 December

What: Quarterly monetary policy assessment, rate decision and press conference
When: Decision in the morning European time, followed by a press conference with SNB Chair Martin Schlegel. ^[26]
Current policy: Policy rate 0%, after a sequence of 25‑bp cuts that ended in September 2025. ^[27]
Consensus: No change. Despite November inflation falling to 0%, economists expect the SNB to keep rates at 0% and avoid returning to negative territory. ^[28]

The SNB views negative rates as a last‑resort tool with serious side effects. Analysts argue that the recent inflation dip does not meet the bar to re‑introduce them, especially with wage growth likely to lift prices modestly in 2026. ^[29]

Key watch‑points

Whether the SNB reiterates its willingness to intervene in FX markets, particularly after renewed franc strength as investors seek safe havens. ^[30]
Any tweaks to its conditional inflation forecast that might pave the way for higher—or lower—rates in 2026.

Asia‑Pacific data: China and Japan in focus

Monday 8 December – China trade balance (November)

China kicks off the week with its November trade balance release, scheduled around mid‑day Beijing time, with data published by the General Administration of Customs. ^[31]

Recent data show a USD trade surplus of about $90bn in October, and markets expect another very large surplus in November, with some calendars pointing to forecasts near $100–105bn. ^[32]
The numbers will be dissected for the impact of US tariffs and shifting export patterns toward Southeast Asia, where Chinese exports have been growing fast as firms route around higher US duties. ^[33]

For global markets, a strong export reading supports the narrative of resilient global goods demand, but also underscores ongoing trade tensions.

Wednesday 10 December – China CPI (November)

Two days later, China releases November CPI, a crucial update in its fight against deflation. ^[34]

CPI rose 0.2% year‑on‑year in October, ending a run of outright deflation. ^[35]
Market forecasts for November centre around modestly higher inflation (roughly 0.2–0.7%), still far below Beijing’s comfort zone but a welcome move away from negative prints. ^[36]

The CPI data will be read alongside recent reports that China may again target around 5% GDP growth in 2026 as part of a broader effort to break out of deflation and revive domestic demand. ^[37]

A stronger‑than‑expected inflation print may lessen pressure on the People’s Bank of China to ease aggressively in early 2026; a relapse toward deflation would do the opposite.

Sunday 14 / Monday 15 December – Bank of Japan Tankan survey

At the end of the week, attention turns to Japan’s Tankan business survey for Q4:

The Tankan Large Manufacturers Index for Q4 2025 is scheduled for release on 14 December, with the summary and outline published by the BoJ around 08:50 local time on 15 December. ^[38]
The Q3 reading was 14, and forecasters expect a similar level, signalling still‑solid sentiment in manufacturing despite external headwinds. ^[39]

This survey is widely described as the last major data point before the BoJ’s potential rate hike on 19 December, where policymakers may raise the short‑term policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% if data hold up. ^[40]

A strong Tankan reading would reinforce expectations of a shift away from ultra‑easy policy, likely supporting the yen and weighing on Japanese equities that benefit from cheap money.

Europe & UK: Inflation and growth checkpoints

Friday 12 December – Germany final HICP (November)

Germany publishes the final November HICP on Friday morning:

The preliminary estimate showed 2.6% y/y, up from 2.3% in October, driven by services, while energy prices were roughly flat or slightly negative. ^[41]
Investing.com’s calendar shows consensus for the final print to confirm 2.6%. ^[42]

Given that euro‑area inflation as a whole is estimated at 2.2% for November, this release will be one of the last national readings before the ECB’s 18 December meeting, where the Bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 2%. ^[43]

For euro traders, an upside surprise would revive talk of a “higher for longer” ECB stance, while a downside surprise could embolden bets on rate cuts later in 2026.

Friday 12 December – UK monthly GDP (October)

The UK’s Office for National Statistics will release October GDP at 07:00 London time on Friday. ^[44]

September GDP fell 0.1% m/m, dragged down by a sharp drop in production output, the biggest since early 2021. ^[45]
Economists and market pricing suggest flat to slightly positive growth for October, consistent with a sluggish but not collapsing economy and supporting expectations for a 25‑bp BoE cut at its 18 December meeting. ^[46]

With UK house prices still rising modestly and mortgage approvals surprising to the upside, investors will watch the GDP release for confirmation that higher rates have cooled activity but not tipped the economy into a deeper contraction. ^[47]

North American data: US inflation pipeline and labour signals

US releases through the week

Most of the high‑profile US data this week are more about inflation dynamics and labour costs than about headline growth:

Monday 8 December – NY Fed inflation & expectations:
- The New York Fed publishes its Multivariate Core Trend Inflation measure and the Survey of Consumer Expectations, offering a deeper look at underlying inflation and household inflation expectations. ^[48]
Tuesday 9 December – Productivity & labour costs:
- Revised Productivity & Costs (Q3) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics arrive at 08:30 ET, key for assessing wage‑driven inflation pressures. ^[49]
- Other calendars (such as Kiplinger’s) highlight the NFIB Small Business Index and JOLTS job openings as notable releases for the labour market narrative, especially after delays from the government shutdown. ^[50]
Wednesday 10 December – (potentially rescheduled) CPI & ECI:
- The New York Fed calendar currently lists Consumer Price Index data on 10 December, though official BLS schedules have been disrupted by the shutdown, and some releases have been pushed back. ^[51]
- Kiplinger’s weekly calendar also flags the Employment Cost Index for Q3 and the federal budget balanceas key releases the same day, all landing just hours before the FOMC decision. ^[52]
Thursday 11 December – PPI and jobless claims:
- The US Producer Price Index for November is released at 08:30 ET, with prior data showing producer inflation running in the 2–3% y/y range. ^[53]
- Initial jobless claims, still hovering around multi‑year lows, provide the most timely look at labour‑market cooling—or lack of it. ^[54]
Friday 12 December – Fed research updates:
- The New York Fed publishes fresh DSGE model projections, its Staff Nowcast, and updated R‑star (HLW) estimates, giving markets more colour on how internal Fed analysis sees growth, inflation and the neutral rate evolving. ^[55]
Monday 15 December – Empire State Manufacturing & labour survey:
- The week closes with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the SCE Labour Market Survey, providing early Q4 reads on manufacturing activity and worker experiences. ^[56]

Individually, many of these are second‑tier releases. Collectively, they will help markets judge whether the Fed can justify its “data‑dependent” language after this week’s rate decision.

Day‑by‑day summary: 8–15 December 2025 (global highlights)

Monday 8 December

China: November trade balance
US: NY Fed inflation trend & expectations surveys

Tuesday 9 December

Australia: RBA rate decision; NAB business confidence ^[57]
US: Productivity & Costs (revised); NFIB small business index; JOLTS job openings

Wednesday 10 December

China: CPI (November)
Canada: BoC rate decision and press conference ^[58]
US: Employment Cost Index, federal budget balance, and potentially CPI, followed by FOMC rate decision, SEP and Powell press conference ^[59]

Thursday 11 December

Australia: Employment & unemployment report
Switzerland: SNB policy decision & press conference ^[60]
US: PPI (November) and weekly jobless claims

Friday 12 December

Germany: Final HICP (November)
United Kingdom: Monthly GDP (October) ^[61]

Sunday 14 / Monday 15 December

Japan: Tankan Q4 business survey (large manufacturers, non‑manufacturers, capex and outlook) ^[62]
US: Empire State Manufacturing Survey and SCE Labour Market Survey ^[63]

(All dates and times are based on official calendars and are subject to last‑minute revisions by statistical agencies and central banks.)

What this could mean for markets

Currencies

US dollar (USD):
- A routine 25‑bp Fed cut paired with cautious guidance and a divided vote may keep the dollar broadly supported, especially if the PPI and labour data stay firm. A surprise pause—or a more hawkish SEP—would likely lift USD sharply. ^[64]
Australian dollar (AUD):
- A hawkish‑hold from the RBA, especially if Thursday’s jobs data confirm labour‑market tightness, would support AUD, particularly against lower‑yielders like JPY and EUR. A surprisingly dovish statement could weigh on the currency. ^[65]
Canadian dollar (CAD):
- With the BoC likely on hold while the Fed cuts, policy‑rate differentials may narrow slightly in CAD’s favour, though the currency will also track oil prices and risk sentiment. ^[66]
Swiss franc (CHF):
- The SNB’s reluctance to return to negative rates and its readiness to intervene in FX will remain key drivers. A steady policy message and low inflation may keep CHF range‑bound unless global risk sentiment deteriorates sharply. ^[67]
Japanese yen (JPY):
- A solid Tankan coupled with ongoing hints of a December BoJ hike could be a powerful bullish catalyst for JPY, especially if global yields stabilise or fall after the Fed. ^[68]

Bonds and equities

Global bonds:
- If the Fed, BoC and SNB all signal that the bulk of easing is behind them—as the OECD expects for advanced economies by 2026—front‑end yields may stabilise, while long‑end yields will trade off inflation expectations and term‑premium dynamics. ^[69]
Equity markets:
- US and European equities have largely priced in gradual easing; the bigger risk now is guidance that rate cuts could slow or pause in 2026, especially if growth data disappoint.
- In Japan, a shift away from ultra‑low rates could pressure rate‑sensitive sectors but support financials and the yen. ^[70]

How investors and businesses can prepare

Know your time zones and release times
- Major releases like the Fed, BoC, SNB, China CPI and Japan’s Tankan arrive in different time zones; mis‑timing hedges or orders by a few hours can be costly. Use official calendars from central banks and statistics agencies and re‑check them early in the week, given recent shutdown‑related schedule changes. ^[71]
Stress‑test rate scenarios
- For portfolio managers and corporates, model outcomes where:
  - The Fed cuts but signals only a very shallow easing path.
  - The RBA and BoC stay on hold longer than markets assume.
  - The BoJ hikes later this month and signals more to come. ^[72]
Watch second‑tier data for confirmation, not direction
- This week’s narrative is dominated by central banks. Use US productivity data, JOLTS, PPI and jobless claims—and Germany/UK releases—to confirm or challenge the signals from policymakers, rather than as standalone drivers. ^[73]
Maintain robust risk management
- Expect spikes in intraday volatility around each decision. Wider spreads, slippage and temporary air pockets in liquidity are common when multiple G10 central banks meet in the same week. Consider position sizing, stop‑loss placement and hedging across correlated assets (for example, AUD/JPY around the RBA and BoJ, or USD/CAD around Fed and BoC decisions).

Economic calendars are always subject to last‑minute changes, but as of 7 December 2025, this is how the crucial week of 8–15 December is shaping up. With four major central banks in play, fresh Chinese data and key European and UK releases, it is a week where macro strategy, risk management and attention to detail will matter at least as much as any single data point.