Fermi Inc. (NASDAQ: FRMI) stock plunged after a prospective tenant terminated a $150M construction funding agreement tied to Project Matador. Here’s the latest news, forecasts, and analyst outlook as of Dec. 14, 2025.
Published/Updated: Sunday, December 14, 2025 (markets closed; prices reflect the latest trading session)
Key takeaways
- FRMI stock’s catalyst: A prospective “first tenant” terminated an agreement that could have provided up to $150 million toward construction funding at Fermi’s Texas site, though lease talks continue. [1]
- Price reaction: Fermi shares closed $10.09 on Dec. 12, down 33.84% on the day, on extremely heavy volume. [2]
- Street outlook: Consensus targets published prior to the selloff still cluster around the low $30s, but at least one firm (Evercore ISI) cut its target to $20 while keeping an Outperform rating. [3]
What happened to Fermi Inc. stock — and why it matters now
Fermi Inc. (also branded as Fermi America; NASDAQ & LSE: FRMI) is facing its first major public-market stress test just months after its October debut: a prospective anchor tenant backed away from a construction funding arrangement linked to Project Matador, the company’s flagship energy-and-data campus development in Texas. [4]
On Friday, Dec. 12, Reuters reported the stock plunged after Fermi disclosed that the prospective tenant had terminated a deal that could have helped fund construction—a setback for a newly listed, pre-revenue company whose early narrative has been built around long-term demand for power-hungry AI infrastructure. [5]
As of Dec. 14, 2025, there were no new market sessions (Sunday), but the story remains very “live” because it goes straight to the company’s near-term credibility with customers and capital markets: tenant commitments, pricing power, and execution timelines.
The $150 million agreement that was terminated: timeline and details
In its Form 8‑K, Fermi laid out a clear sequence:
- Sept. 19, 2025: Fermi and an unnamed prospective tenant entered a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI). [6]
- Nov. 3, 2025: The parties executed an Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AICA) designed to fund certain shared infrastructure and utility systems. [7]
- Dec. 9, 2025: The LOI’s exclusivity period expired at midnight. [8]
- Dec. 11, 2025: The prospective tenant terminated the AICA. [9]
Two points in the filing are especially important for investors trying to separate headline risk from economic reality:
- No funds were drawn before termination. [10]
- Fermi said the parties are still in negotiations regarding a potential lease at the site even though the AICA ended. [11]
In plain English: the construction-funding mechanism was scrapped, but the commercial relationship is not necessarily dead—yet.
Fermi’s message after the selloff: “active conversation” and more bidders
Local outlet ABC7 Amarillo reported that CEO and co-founder Toby Neugebauer framed the moment as a function of deal dynamics after exclusivity ended, saying the company remained in “active conversation” with the first tenant while additional potential tenants began bidding for power. [12]
That messaging broadly matches the company’s own 8‑K language, which also notes Fermi is in discussions with other prospective tenants for 2026 power delivery at the site. [13]
For investors, the gap to watch is whether those conversations translate into signed, bankable contracts—and whether any new agreement replaces the lost $150M prepayment framework (or forces Fermi into alternative financing).
FRMI stock price check (latest session) and trading context
Because today is Sunday (Dec. 14), the latest pricing reflects Friday, Dec. 12:
- Close: $10.09
- Day move: −33.84%
- Session range: $8.30 – $10.88
- Volume: ~63.1 million shares (a massive spike versus prior days) [14]
Reuters also noted the drop put FRMI among the biggest decliners on the Nasdaq that day and left shares trading around half of the $21 IPO price. [15]
This matters for two reasons:
- Volatility is now part of the stock’s identity. Heavy volume on a large down day can indicate forced selling, repricing of risk, or both.
- Future announcements may cause outsized moves because the shareholder base is still forming and the company is still in a “prove it” phase.
Who is Fermi Inc. and what is Project Matador?
Fermi is positioning itself as both an energy infrastructure developer and a data-center-oriented real estate platform tied to AI compute growth. Reuters described it as a data center real estate investment company, and noted it is co-founded by former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry and is not yet generating revenue. [16]
Project Matador is the core of the story. In recent company communications, Fermi has repeatedly described the campus as a large-scale, “behind-the-meter” power and compute development designed to serve hyperscale AI needs. On its investor relations site, the company describes its plan as an 11‑gigawatt next-gen private grid integrating multiple power sources. [17]
Separately, the Financial Times reported the project is expected to cost over $50 billion and is planned as an AI-focused data-and-energy campus in West Texas; it also reported shares fell as much as 46% intraday on the news. [18]
Recent operational milestones investors are weighing (beyond the tenant headline)
While the tenant funding termination dominates headlines, Fermi has also been publicizing progress on power supply and infrastructure partnerships—useful context when evaluating whether this is a temporary commercial setback or a broader execution issue.
1) Power agreement with Xcel Energy subsidiary (SPS): up to 200 MW starting 2026
On Dec. 5, 2025, Fermi announced a definitive Electric Service Agreement with Southwestern Public Service Company (SPS), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, to provide up to 200 MW of capacity to Project Matador. The company said SPS would begin delivering 86 MW in January 2026, ramping up thereafter. [19]
This is notable because it speaks to near-term energization steps—even though it does not replace the kind of multi-gigawatt tenant demand implied by the earlier LOI narrative.
2) Water-saving cooling plan with MVM EGI: first tower slated for January 2026
On Dec. 1, 2025, Fermi announced a non-binding MOU with MVM EGI Zrt. to develop hybrid dry–wet cooling systems, stating the cooling towers would support 6 GW of combined-cycle natural gas generation and four AP1000 nuclear units, with the first tower scheduled to begin construction in January 2026. [20]
For communities and regulators, cooling and water use are material; for investors, it’s another indicator of whether “renderings” are turning into engineered plans.
3) Site progress metrics (company-reported)
Fermi’s investor relations page also lists construction progress metrics (e.g., miles of gas line, water lines, and fencing installed) as of early December. These figures are company-provided, but they reinforce the company’s claim that on-the-ground work is underway. [21]
Analyst forecasts and price targets as of Dec. 14, 2025
Consensus targets still sit high — but many were set before the selloff
Several forecast aggregators continue to show bullish analyst target prices versus the current stock price:
- StockAnalysis lists a “Strong Buy” consensus among 7 analysts with an average price target of $30.86 (targets last updated Nov. 12, 2025), implying a very large upside from $10.09. [22]
- MarketBeat shows an average target around $31.56 with a “Buy” consensus rating and notes its page was updated 12/14/2025. [23]
- TipRanks lists an average target around $31.63 (based on analysts’ targets issued in the prior three months), though its displayed “last price” reference appears to reflect pre-drop levels, underscoring the “stale target” risk when a stock gaps down. [24]
How to read this: On a sudden repricing event, consensus targets can lag reality. The more meaningful signal in the next 1–3 weeks will be whether analysts reissue models and targets based on:
- the probability of salvaging the first tenant lease,
- the likelihood of new tenants for 2026/2027,
- and changes to financing needs.
Evercore ISI: target cut to $20 (Outperform maintained)
Investing.com reported that Evercore ISI lowered its price target to $20 from $37 while maintaining an Outperform rating, calling the termination a “clear negative” but suggesting the company remained on track with power delivery schedules. [25]
Even at $20, that target is dramatically below where early coverage began—and the timing suggests it is one of the first notable post-event downward resets.
Stifel: “short-term negative,” long-term demand intact (per Investing.com)
Investing.com also reported that Stifel described the development as “clearly a short-term negative,” while maintaining confidence in long-term AI/data center power demand trends and noting Fermi discussions with other customers. [26]
Why the market reacted so violently: “key client risk” for a newly public, pre-revenue story
Reuters captured the core investor anxiety: when a company is young, pre-revenue, and concentrated around a handful of potential customers, losing one prospective anchor can trigger a rapid reassessment of everything from pricing assumptions to funding pathways. [27]
This is especially relevant for Fermi because:
- Its narrative is tied to AI-driven demand for power and data center infrastructure, a theme that has drawn intense capital and scrutiny. [28]
- The terminated arrangement wasn’t just “a customer”—it was also a funding mechanism that could have supported early buildout. [29]
The Financial Times additionally reported that analysts attributed the breakdown to pricing negotiations—a reminder that “demand is strong” does not automatically mean counterparties will agree on economics. [30]
Legal and shareholder investigation headlines: what investors should know
In the wake of the selloff, multiple law firms published notices announcing investigations into potential claims on behalf of investors.
- Hagens Berman published a release dated Dec. 13, 2025, stating it opened an investigation following the share drop and referencing the termination of the AICA tied to the first tenant. [31]
- Business Wire carried similar “investigation announced” notices from other firms, including one dated Dec. 12, 2025, summarizing the IPO price and subsequent decline after the tenant terminated the $150M agreement. [32]
These announcements are common after sharp stock drops and do not, by themselves, prove wrongdoing. But they can add headline risk and distraction—particularly for a company trying to keep commercial negotiations on track.
What to watch next (the catalysts that could move FRMI stock)
If you’re tracking Fermi Inc. stock into the next trading week, the near-term swing factors are relatively clear:
- Does the “first tenant” still sign a lease?
Fermi says lease negotiations continue. A signed lease (or a confirmed end to talks) would likely be market-moving. [33] - Are new tenants secured for 2026/2027 power delivery?
Both the 8‑K and subsequent reporting emphasize discussions with other potential tenants. Markets will want names, credit quality, contract terms, and timelines. [34] - How does Fermi replace (or restructure) the lost funding framework?
The AICA’s termination raises practical financing questions, even if construction continues. [35] - Execution proof points in early 2026
Fermi’s recently announced power arrangement with SPS includes 86 MW beginning January 2026 (company statement). Any confirmation of delivery readiness will be scrutinized. [36]
Bottom line for Dec. 14, 2025
As of today, the Fermi Inc. stock story is not about quarterly earnings power—it’s about contract certainty and financing credibility.
The company’s disclosures make clear that the $150M construction funding agreement is terminated, exclusivity has ended, and management is simultaneously pursuing (1) continued lease talks with the first tenant and (2) conversations with additional prospective tenants. [37]
Meanwhile, the stock has reset sharply lower, and while consensus analyst targets remain far above the current price, at least one major firm has already cut its target in response to the development—suggesting forecasts could remain a moving target as coverage updates. [38]
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. abc7amarillo.com, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. investor.fermiamerica.com, 18. www.ft.com, 19. www.prnewswire.com, 20. www.prnewswire.com, 21. investor.fermiamerica.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.ft.com, 31. www.prnewswire.com, 32. www.businesswire.com, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. www.sec.gov, 36. www.prnewswire.com, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. stockanalysis.com
