Fermi Inc (Nasdaq/LSE: FRMI) ended the week in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Shares of the AI-power and data-center infrastructure developer collapsed on Friday after a prospective first tenant terminated a $150 million construction-funding arrangement tied to the company’s flagship Texas development, Project Matador. [1]
With markets closed on Saturday (13 December), the latest available quote reflects Friday’s rout: FRMI last traded around $10.09, after swinging wildly intraday (roughly $7.57 low to $15.01 high) on heavy volume.
Below is a detailed recap of the week’s key headlines, what the filing actually said, what analysts have been modeling, and what investors are likely to watch as the new week begins.
FRMI stock price today: where Fermi shares stand after the selloff
As of 13 December 2025 (Saturday), the most recent market data shows FRMI around $10.09 following Friday’s plunge, with the session marked by extreme volatility and unusually heavy trading activity. [2]
That volatility matters because Fermi is a newly listed, high-expectations story stock—and in that kind of setup, price tends to move less on incremental fundamentals and more on “proof points” (leases, financing, power delivery milestones) that validate the narrative.
What happened this week: the $150 million agreement that snapped
The immediate trigger for Friday’s selloff was a brief but market-moving disclosure in an SEC Form 8‑K.
The timeline (from Fermi’s filing)
According to Fermi Inc.’s 8‑K:
- Sept. 19, 2025: Fermi signed a non-binding letter of intent with an investment-grade-rated “First Tenant” to lease part of the Project Matador site, subject to final lease negotiations and execution. [3]
- Nov. 3, 2025: The company and the First Tenant signed an Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AICA) under which the tenant could advance up to $150 million toward construction costs, subject to conditions. [4]
- Key detail: Fermi says no funds were drawn under that AICA. [5]
- Dec. 9, 2025: The LOI’s exclusivity period expired. [6]
- Dec. 11, 2025: The First Tenant notified Fermi that it is terminating the AICA—but Fermi says the parties continue negotiating toward a lease under the LOI framework. [7]
Fermi also said it had begun discussions with other potential tenants for 2026 power delivery, and stated it remains confident about meeting its expected power-delivery schedule due to robust demand for “behind-the-meter” AI power. [8]
Why the market reacted so violently
Reuters summarized the market’s read-through bluntly: a prospective tenant terminated a deal meant to help fund construction, dealing a setback to a newly listed data-center REIT that is still pre-revenue. [9]
Even though no cash had been advanced, the AICA mattered symbolically: it was an early, tangible signal that a high-quality tenant might be willing to financially commit while a definitive lease was still being negotiated. When that signal disappeared, investors repriced execution risk in a hurry.
Barron’s framed the same issue as a confidence hit for a company that has yet to generate revenue and is trying to build out a massive AI-power complex on an aggressive schedule. [10]
The bigger narrative behind FRMI: Project Matador and “behind-the-meter” AI power
Fermi’s pitch is not subtle: develop a private, high-reliability energy grid and data campus capable of feeding hyperscale AI compute. In company releases, Project Matador is described as an 11‑gigawatt campus integrating multiple power sources (including gas, nuclear, renewables, storage, and utility power). [11]
That ambition is also why the stock is so headline-sensitive: the value proposition depends on long-dated execution—permitting, engineering, procurement, tenant contracting, and financing—rather than on a mature base of contracted cash flows today.
Financial Times noted that the project has been discussed as a multi-decade, very large capex build and that the stock is now far below its post-IPO highs after Friday’s drop. [12]
Other major Fermi (FRMI) news in the last days
Friday’s tenant headline dominated, but it wasn’t the only update investors were digesting this month.
1) Xcel Energy power agreement: up to 200 MW, starting January 2026
On Dec. 5, Fermi announced a signed, definitive Electric Service Agreement with Southwestern Public Service Company (an Xcel Energy subsidiary) for up to 200 MW of electrical capacity for Project Matador—stating deliveries begin at 86 MW in January 2026, ramping to 200 MW over time. [13]
From a fundamentals standpoint, this is one of the more concrete near-term “proof points”: it’s specific, dated, and tied to an established utility.
2) Cooling and water strategy MOU: hybrid dry–wet towers
On Dec. 1, Fermi announced a non-binding MOU with MVM EGI Zrt. focused on engineering hybrid dry–wet cooling solutions designed to reduce water use for the campus, with planning tied to a phased build-out stretching well into the 2030s. [14]
This kind of announcement doesn’t move markets like a lease would—but it signals the company is working through “non-glamorous” constraints (cooling, water stewardship) that can make or break large data-center builds.
3) Project financing discussions: $4B+ (as of late November)
On Nov. 25, Fermi said it was in discussions for $4+ billion of project financing for its first tenant, projected as non-recourse and structured through a special purpose vehicle (SPV). [15]
Important nuance: this was described as discussions, not a finalized financing package. After the AICA termination, investors are likely to re-evaluate how those financing conversations are progressing (or whether they need to be reshaped around different tenant terms). That connection is an inference—but it’s the obvious one markets tend to make when a “first tenant” story changes midstream. [16]
4) Russell Index inclusion: FRMI to join Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 on Dec. 22
FTSE Russell documents show Fermi Inc (FRMI) on the final list of IPO additions for both the Russell 1000 and the Russell 3000, effective December 22, 2025. [17]
Index inclusion can matter because it can create mechanical demand from passive and benchmarked funds—though real-world impact varies based on float, liquidity, and how much the market has already anticipated the flows.
IPO context: why expectations were high (and why the drop feels so dramatic)
Fermi priced its IPO at $21.00 per share, offering 32.5 million shares, and began trading on Nasdaq (Oct. 1, 2025) and the London Stock Exchange (Oct. 2, 2025) under the ticker FRMI. [18]
That sort of high-profile dual listing helped put FRMI on the radar of global investors quickly—and also means the stock has been “valued like a promise,” not like a mature utility or a stabilized REIT.
MarketWatch also emphasized the REIT model challenge in simple terms: a REIT meant to earn income from tenants looks vulnerable when its early tenant story gets shakier. [19]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: what Wall Street has been modeling for FRMI
Street ratings and price targets (pre-shock vs. post-shock reality)
In Reuters-based market commentary, seven brokerages were cited as rating the stock “buy” or higher, with a median price target around $33 (per LSEG data referenced in the report). [20]
Market-data aggregates also show a high implied target price relative to Friday’s post-drop levels (e.g., Finviz lists a target price around the low-$30s). [21]
But here’s the key reality check: many published targets and initiations were set in a pre-termination regime—when investors assumed the first-tenant pathway was getting clearer, not cloudier. After a sudden event like this, analysts often revisit:
- probability-weighting of first-tenant conversion,
- expected time-to-revenue,
- financing structure assumptions,
- and dilution risk (if equity capital becomes necessary).
What analysts are likely to focus on now
Based on the filing and this week’s coverage, the near-term analyst “model inputs” that matter most are straightforward:
- Does the first tenant still sign a definitive lease?
Fermi says lease negotiations continue even after the AICA termination. [22] - If not, how quickly can Fermi replace that tenant (or split capacity among several)?
The company says it has begun discussions with other potential tenants for 2026 power delivery. [23] - Can the company hit its power-delivery timeline—and with what mix?
Fermi reiterated confidence on schedule, and the Xcel/SPS agreement provides a concrete near-term utility supply ramp beginning January 2026. [24] - What is the financing path now?
Investors will contrast the earlier “$4B+ financing discussions” language with the new tenant uncertainty and ask what—if anything—has changed behind the scenes. [25]
Technical and trading setup: why FRMI may stay volatile next week
Friday’s move had the classic fingerprints of a “high-beta repricing” day:
- a major new disclosure,
- a fast, deep drawdown,
- very large intraday range,
- and heavy volume.
Whether FRMI bounces or bleeds next week is less about geometry on a chart and more about information flow. With story-driven stocks, the market often oscillates between:
- “This kills the story,” and
- “This was just one term-sheet step; the lease might still happen.”
Until there’s clarity, expect headline-driven gaps, especially because Fermi is still early in its life as a public company and has a relatively concentrated narrative.
Week ahead (Dec. 15–Dec. 19): what investors will watch next
Here are the most plausible catalysts and checkpoints for the coming week—framed as watch items, not predictions:
1) Any follow-up disclosure on the tenant relationship
The 8‑K states negotiations continue. The market will be hypersensitive to any clarification on whether talks are progressing, pausing, or being reframed. [26]
2) Additional tenant announcements (or credible signals of pipeline depth)
Fermi says it has begun discussions with other potential tenants for 2026. Even limited confirmation of serious counterparties could shift sentiment quickly. [27]
3) Analyst note flow: downgrades, target cuts, or “reiteration with lower confidence”
Given the magnitude of the move, it would be normal to see refreshed models and revised targets.
4) Liquidity and price discovery after the shock
After a single-day collapse, stocks often enter a “two-sided” tape (dip buyers vs. forced sellers). Friday’s wide range suggests price discovery is still ongoing.
5) Index inclusion countdown
FRMI is on FTSE Russell’s final IPO addition lists for the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 effective Dec. 22—close enough that some investors may position early, while others may wait. [28]
Bottom line: FRMI is being repriced on “proof, not promises”
Fermi Inc stock is trading like a company whose valuation is highly sensitive to execution milestones. The termination of the AICA didn’t remove cash from the balance sheet (none was drawn), but it removed perceived certainty around the first-tenant pathway—exactly the kind of certainty early-stage infrastructure REITs need to sustain premium valuations. [29]
Next week’s action will likely depend on whether investors get credible evidence that:
- the original tenant can still convert into a signed lease, or
- the broader tenant pipeline is deep enough to keep Project Matador’s early phases on track.
Either way, FRMI has entered a new phase: less myth-making, more receipts.
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. finviz.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. finviz.com, 12. www.ft.com, 13. finviz.com, 14. finviz.com, 15. finviz.com, 16. finviz.com, 17. www.lseg.com, 18. www.prnewswire.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. finviz.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.lseg.com, 29. www.sec.gov
