Fermi Inc. (NASDAQ: FRMI) stock is back in the spotlight on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, as the newly public AI-energy and data-center infrastructure developer continues to absorb the market shock from a key tenant-related funding reversal tied to its flagship Project Matador site in Texas. Shares were trading around $8.59 at the latest quote, with a session range roughly between $8.52 and $8.84, reflecting how jittery sentiment remains after last week’s headline-driven selloff.
The short version of what’s happening: Fermi’s story is still “big vision, big buildout,” but the market is repricing the timeline and execution risk—especially after the company disclosed that its first prospective tenant terminated a $150 million construction funding agreement (while lease talks technically continue). [1]
Below is what’s new and notable as of Dec. 16, 2025—including the latest reporting, today’s forecasts/targets floating around Wall Street, and the key signposts that could decide whether FRMI stabilizes or keeps whipping around.
Fermi Inc stock today: why FRMI is still volatile on Dec. 16, 2025
Even after the initial headline hit, FRMI’s trading is acting like a classic “high narrative, low visibility” stock:
- It’s early-stage and capital-intensive, which makes any change in funding expectations matter a lot.
- It’s effectively pre-revenue (or extremely early revenue), so investors are valuing it on future contracted cash flows—especially leases and power delivery commitments that haven’t fully hardened into long-term, bankable contracts yet. [2]
- The latest available quote showed $8.59 with heavy sensitivity to news flow.
That’s the environment where one sentence like “tenant terminated the funding agreement” can knock billions off perceived future certainty.
The core catalyst: what Fermi disclosed about the $150 million agreement
The market’s current fixation traces back to Fermi’s Form 8‑K disclosure describing a chain of events around its first prospective tenant at Project Matador:
- Fermi said it signed a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) on September 19, 2025 with an investment-grade-rated tenant to lease part of the Project Matador site. [3]
- In November 2025, Fermi and that tenant entered into an Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AICA) under which the tenant could advance up to $150 million for construction costs—but no funds were drawn. [4]
- The LOI’s exclusivity period expired at midnight on December 9, 2025. [5]
- On December 11, 2025, the tenant notified Fermi it was terminating the AICA, while Fermi said the parties continue to negotiate lease terms. [6]
Fermi also stated it remained confident it could meet its expected power delivery schedule, citing robust demand for “behind-the-meter” power for AI. [7]
Translation into market-speak: the tenant didn’t just hesitate on rent; it walked away from a financing mechanism that investors could point to as near-term validation.
What the mainstream coverage highlighted (and why it mattered)
Major financial outlets framed the development as a major reality check for a company that only recently came public in a red-hot AI-infrastructure narrative:
- Reuters reported the shares plunged after Fermi said a prospective tenant terminated the deal that could have helped fund construction at its Texas site. [8]
- Financial Times emphasized the scale of the setback—highlighting the withdrawal of the $150 million funding commitment and noting how far the stock had fallen from post-IPO highs, while still pointing to longer-term AI-power demand as the background thesis. [9]
- Barron’s characterized it as a “worst day on record” type moment for the stock, underscoring how quickly confidence can snap when a first “anchor” relationship looks shaky. [10]
- MarketWatch focused on how central tenants are to the company’s REIT-like model and highlighted the project branding around the Donald J. Trump Generating Plant as part of the broader Texas buildout narrative. [11]
Quick context: what Fermi is trying to build
Fermi, Inc., doing business as Fermi America, pitches itself as a builder of next-generation private grids designed to deliver gigawatt-scale power for AI data centers. [12]
In its IPO coverage, Reuters described Fermi as a data-center REIT/infrastructure play founded in January 2025, co-founded by former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, that raised about $682.5 million in its IPO priced at $21—at a valuation Reuters put around $12.46 billion. [13]
This matters because the stock’s valuation—especially early on—depended heavily on the belief that it could rapidly turn hype into signed tenants, contracted power delivery, and financeable cash flows.
December 16 forecasts and analyst targets: still bullish on paper, but credibility is the question
Here’s the weird tension showing up in today’s “forecast” universe:
1) The consensus view still reads “Buy” in many aggregators
A MarketBeat roundup dated Dec. 16, 2025 says 10 analysts cover FRMI with a consensus Buy, and it lists an average one-year price target of about $31.56 (with a mix of hold/buy/strong buy ratings). [14]
MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot similarly shows an average recommendation of Buy and an average target price around $30.13 (based on its displayed count). [15]
What to do with this: treat it as a lagging indicator. Targets often move slower than stocks—especially when a thesis breaks on a discrete event.
2) But at least one major target cut has already hit
Investing.com reported that Evercore ISI lowered its price target to $20 from $37 while keeping an Outperform rating following the termination of the funding agreement. [16]
So the “Street is bullish” headline is true in a narrow sense—but the shape of that bullishness is changing: same ratings, lower targets, and likely more scrutiny of assumptions.
Dec. 16 analysis: valuation models disagree violently (which is the whole point)
One of the more direct pieces of analysis dated Dec. 16, 2025 came from Simply Wall St, which framed this moment as an “inflection point” and ran a DCF-style (discounted cash flow) valuation:
- Simply Wall St’s model estimated a fair value around $5.66 per share, below the recent price area it cited, implying the stock could still screen as overvalued even after the drop (depending on assumptions). [17]
- In the same piece, it contrasted that with analyst targets (it referenced a target around $29) to highlight the gulf between “market fear” and “sell-side optimism.” [18]
This isn’t just nerdy spreadsheet theater. For early-stage infrastructure developers:
- Small changes in assumed lease-up timing
- Power delivery milestones
- Financing costs
- Tenant credit quality
…can swing “fair value” wildly. The disagreement is a signal: the market is uncertain about what’s knowable right now.
Another Dec. 16 angle: is this a one-company problem—or a warning about AI infrastructure spending?
A TalkMarkets commentary published Dec. 16, 2025 used Fermi’s plunge as a broader cautionary tale about AI infrastructure: tenants and builders can sign ambitious agreements faster than capital markets can sustainably fund them. [19]
To be crystal clear: that piece is opinionated commentary, not a company filing. But it does reflect a theme that institutional investors will recognize:
AI power + data center buildouts are real, but the financing stack and tenant economics have to close.
If the first “anchor” relationship can’t finalize funding terms, investors start stress-testing every other promised deal in the pipeline.
Legal noise is rising: investigations announced after the drop
In the days following the selloff, multiple law firms issued releases announcing investigations related to the stock move and disclosure timeline. These are announcements, not findings of wrongdoing, but they can add headline risk and keep volatility elevated. [20]
For a young IPO, that matters because it can:
- distract management,
- raise reputational overhang,
- and create “sell first, ask questions later” trading behavior.
What matters next: the catalysts that could stabilize (or further break) FRMI
For an infrastructure/REIT hybrid like Fermi, the market will likely refocus on a short list of reality-check milestones:
1) A definitive lease announcement (not just “talks continue”)
Fermi says it is still negotiating a lease with the first tenant even after termination of the AICA, and it also signaled it began discussions with other potential tenants after exclusivity expired. [21]
Investors will want to see whether that becomes:
- a signed lease,
- with disclosed economics (or at least clearer structure),
- and credible tenant credit.
2) Replacement funding mechanisms
The AICA was meaningful because it suggested tenant-funded construction support. With that gone (for now), attention shifts to:
- project finance debt,
- partner capital,
- equity raises,
- prepayments from other tenants,
- or utility/energy counterparties that de-risk delivery.
3) Updated timelines toward 2026 delivery
Fermi reiterated confidence in meeting its expected delivery schedule. The market will demand receipts: procurement progress, permitting, interconnect, construction milestones, and credible commissioning timelines. [22]
4) Analyst revisions catching up to the new risk regime
Today’s target-price landscape is still mixed: consensus targets remain high in some datasets, while at least one notable cut has already landed. [23]
If more firms cut targets or shift language from “execution risk” to “financing risk,” that’s often when a stock stops trading like a story and starts trading like a balance sheet.
The bottom line on Fermi Inc stock on Dec. 16, 2025
As of Dec. 16, 2025, Fermi (FRMI) is in the market’s penalty box: still attached to one of the biggest themes in investing (AI infrastructure and power), but newly forced to prove that its first wave of tenants and funding structures can actually close—not just be announced.
The near-term direction may hinge less on macro AI excitement and more on very specific, very practical questions:
- Who signs leases, when, and on what terms?
- Who pays for construction up front?
- Can Fermi turn its pipeline narrative into contracted cash flows fast enough to justify the capital it needs to raise?
Until those answers firm up, FRMI may remain a high-volatility headline stock—capable of sharp rebounds, but also vulnerable to more air pockets.
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.ft.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. investor.fermiamerica.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. simplywall.st, 18. simplywall.st, 19. talkmarkets.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.marketbeat.com
