Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Stock on December 11, 2025: Moon-Landing Hype Meets Lawsuit Reality

Data and events in this article are current as of December 11, 2025.

Key Takeaways

Share price: Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: FLY) last closed at $21.30 on December 10, up 9.46% on the day, with a 52‑week range of $16.00–$73.80 and a market cap around $3.4 billion. ^[1]
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 revenue jumped to $30.8 million, up 98% quarter‑over‑quarter and 38% year‑over‑year, and the company raised full‑year 2025 revenue guidance to $150–158 million, but losses remain heavy. ^[2]
Tension in the story: Firefly is balancing strong lunar and defense growth drivers (NASA contracts, the SciTec acquisition, Volta partnership) against rocket test failures, a steep post‑IPO share price decline, and a wave of securities class‑action lawsuits. ^[3]

Where Firefly Aerospace Stock Stands Now

As of the close on December 10, 2025, Firefly Aerospace stock (FLY) traded at $21.30, up 9.46% on the session, on volume of about 3.5 million shares. The day’s range ran from $18.99 to $21.88, and the 52‑week range sits at $16.00–$73.80. ^[4]

Key current metrics:

Market cap: ~$3.39 billion
Revenue (ttm): $111 million
Net income (ttm): –$396 million
EPS (ttm): –$11.79
Shares outstanding: ~159 million ^[5]

That share price is:

Down ~56% from the $45 IPO price
Down ~67% from the first‑day close around $60.35
About 71% below the intraday high near $73.80 reached shortly after listing ^[6]

In short, the December bounce has not erased the damage from a brutal post‑IPO sell‑off.

Today’s Big Theme: Volta’s Lunar Power Deal Keeps FLY in the Spotlight

The most immediate catalyst driving trading around December 10–11, 2025 is Firefly’s new commercial agreement with Volta Space Technologies.

Firefly announced that Volta’s wireless power receiver, part of its “LightPort” system, will fly as a technology demonstration on Blue Ghost Mission 2 to the far side of the Moon. The payload is intended to support Volta’s planned “LightGrid” lunar power network, a concept for distributing power via orbiting satellites and receivers on the lunar surface. ^[7]

Market reaction has been notably positive:

GlobeNewswire and related coverage highlighted the Volta payload as another high‑profile commercial win for Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar platform. ^[8]
Stock commentary from outlets such as The Motley Fool and TipRanks noted that FLY shares gained around 9–10% on the news as investors welcomed another proof point for Firefly’s lunar services franchise. ^[9]

The Volta deal matters for three reasons:

Validation of Blue Ghost as a commercial platform – Firefly is not just flying NASA payloads; it is building a multi‑customer lunar “infrastructure bus” that others can rent. ^[10]
Reinforcement of the long‑term lunar infrastructure theme – Power, communications, and imaging around the Moon are likely multi‑decade markets. Volta’s LightGrid concept fits squarely into that narrative. ^[11]
Positive news flow amid legal and technical headwinds – After weeks dominated by lawsuit headlines and memories of a rocket test explosion, the market has been hungry for something overtly constructive. ^[12]

From Moon Landing to Nasdaq: How Firefly Got Here

Firefly is not a pre‑revenue story selling pure hype; it has already hit several milestones that matter to investors.

A genuinely historic lunar first

On March 2, 2025, Firefly’s Blue Ghost lander successfully touched down on the Moon under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, delivering 10 scientific and technology payloads. ^[13]
The landing, near Mare Crisium, is widely cited as the first fully successful Moon landing by a commercial company, putting Firefly in a very small club of entities capable of lunar surface operations. ^[14]

Building a multi‑mission lunar roadmap

Firefly’s Blue Ghost and Elytra architectures are designed to create repeatable lunar missions:

Blue Ghost: a lunar lander platform providing power, thermal control, and data services for payloads on transit, in orbit, and on the surface. ^[15]
Elytra: a family of orbital vehicles (Dawn, Dusk, Dark) providing in‑space maneuvering, long‑haul communications, and cislunar logistics, including as a relay for Blue Ghost missions. ^[16]

NASA has leaned into this:

A $101 million CLPS contract funded Blue Ghost Mission 1. ^[17]
In July–August 2025, NASA awarded Firefly a $176.7 million contract for Blue Ghost Mission 4, a 2029 mission delivering two rovers and three science instruments to the Moon’s south pole using Blue Ghost and the Elytra Dark vehicle. ^[18]

The August 2025 IPO

Firefly went public on August 7, 2025:

The IPO price was set at $45 per share, above the initial $35–39 range and even an increased $41–43 range, implying an initial valuation of more than $6.4 billion. ^[19]
Shares surged on debut, briefly touching about $73.80 intraday and closing at $60.35, giving Firefly a market cap close to $8.8–9.8 billion and marking one of the year’s largest U.S. space‑tech listings. ^[20]

That explosive debut, combined with a $1+ billion contract backlog and a successful commercial Moon landing, set extremely high expectations—expectations the stock has since struggled to live up to.

Fundamentals: Fast Revenue Growth, Deep Red Ink

Q3 2025 results at a glance

Firefly’s Q3 2025 earnings, released on November 12, 2025, are central to understanding the current narrative:

Revenue: $30.8 million
Growth: +98% sequentially and +38% year‑over‑year
Gross profit: $8.5 million (on ~$22.3 million in cost of sales)
Net loss: roughly $133–140 million, significantly wider than the ~$41 million loss a year earlier
Adjusted loss per share: about –$0.33, better than Wall Street expected ^[21]

Management also raised 2025 revenue guidance from earlier estimates of $133–145 million to $150–158 million, reflecting stronger momentum in lunar services and defense‑related contracts. ^[22]

Third‑party coverage generally framed Q3 as:

Evidence that Firefly can scale revenue quickly, especially as Blue Ghost data services and Electra/Elytra solutions ramp. ^[23]
A reminder that profitability is still a distant goal, with operating losses and net losses both very large relative to revenue. ^[24]

Backlog and contracts

Earlier in 2025, Firefly reported:

A contract backlog of around $1.1 billion (rising to roughly $1.3 billion later in the year), supported by NASA CLPS missions, national security work, and commercial customers. ^[25]

This backlog, coupled with the raised 2025 guidance, underpins the bullish view that revenue could scale into the hundreds of millions annually over the next few years.

SciTec: a major revenue bolt‑on

The SciTec acquisition is critical to the longer‑term model:

Firefly announced an agreement in early October 2025 to acquire SciTec, a national security technology firm specializing in missile warning, tracking, and defense analytics, for about $855 million.
The deal is structured as $300 million in cash plus $555 million in Firefly shares, and is expected to close by year‑end 2025. ^[26]
SciTec generated around $164 million in annual revenue before the deal, according to investor commentary, and is expected to be folded into Firefly’s broader defense and data offerings. ^[27]

Several analyses now model a potential $400 million+ revenue run‑rate in 2026 when SciTec’s full‑year revenue is combined with Firefly’s organic growth—though such figures remain projections, not guarantees. ^[28]

Strategic Expansion: Jobs and Facilities

Beyond contracts, Firefly is also growing its physical footprint:

The company is expanding its Cedar Park, Texas headquarters with an additional 44,000‑square‑foot facility and plans to add about 300 jobs by 2027, aided by up to $1 million in local economic‑development incentives. ^[29]
Firefly currently employs roughly 750 people across its Texas sites and expects significant headcount growth as it scales rocket production and lunar operations. ^[30]

This expansion supports the bullish thesis that Firefly is building durable industrial capacity rather than remaining a small, one‑off mission provider.

Setbacks: Rocket Explosion, FAA Scrutiny, and Post‑IPO Slump

The bullish narrative has been repeatedly challenged by operational and market shocks.

Alpha rocket mishaps

A key turning point came in late September 2025, when an Alpha Flight 7 booster exploded during a pre‑launch test:

Coverage from Barron’s and other outlets reported that Firefly’s stock fell about 11% in premarket trading and more than 12% after‑hours as investors processed the news. ^[31]
The test failure followed earlier Alpha issues and an FAA‑mandated investigation after a previous launch problem, according to both company disclosures and later investor lawsuits. ^[32]

Although Q3 commentary emphasizes that the Alpha team is preparing to return to flight in late 2025 or early 2026, the rocket’s reliability remains under scrutiny. ^[33]

November’s 27% slide

In November 2025, Firefly’s share price fell 27% for the month, leaving it down about 66–67% from all‑time highs. ^[34]

Motley Fool and Nasdaq coverage attributed the drop to a combination of:

Post‑IPO selling dynamics, as early investors and insiders take profits or exit positions
Persistent unprofitability and high cash burn in a capital‑intensive industry
Valuation compression as the market shifts away from fast‑growing but loss‑making names and re‑prices high‑multiple space stocks ^[35]

This slump set the stage for the early‑December rebound driven by Q3 results, guidance, and now the Volta deal—but it also highlighted how fragile sentiment remains.

Wall Street’s View: Target Cuts, but Still a “Buy” Consensus

Despite the share price turbulence, analysts remain, on balance, constructive.

According to StockAnalysis:

8 analysts currently cover FLY.
The consensus rating is “Buy”.
The average 12‑month price target is $40.38, implying roughly 90% upside from the $21.30 close on December 10. ^[36]

At the same time, individual firms have turned more cautious:

Morgan Stanley cut its target from $52 to $27 on November 17, citing launch setbacks, but maintained an Equal‑weight rating. At the time of the note, Firefly traded around $22.95, leaving only ~18% implied upside. ^[37]
Deutsche Bank recently upgraded Firefly to Buy while reducing its price target from $40 to $30, calling the stock “ready to reignite” if Alpha launches resume successfully and SciTec integration proceeds as planned. ^[38]

Other commentary ranges from strongly bullish (“Firefly’s a Buy After Doubling Sales in Q3”) to more cautious takes arguing that the company’s moon‑landing achievements do not, by themselves, justify the valuation without a clearer path to sustainable profits. ^[39]

Legal Overhang: A Wave of Securities Class Actions

One of the most important developments heading into December 11, 2025 is the growing legal overhang around Firefly’s IPO.

Core lawsuit: Diamond v. Firefly Aerospace Inc.

A detailed shareholder alert from Levi & Korsinsky describes a class action, Diamond v. Firefly Aerospace Inc., et al., filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas. Key points from that complaint include: ^[40]

Class period: August 7, 2025 (IPO date) through September 29, 2025.
Allegations:
- The IPO materials and subsequent statements allegedly overstated the commercial readiness of the Alpha rocket and inflated growth prospects for the Spacecraft Solutions segment.
- Plaintiffs claim that Firefly failed to fully disclose an FAA launch halt after multiple Alpha failures and the degree of revenue decline in Spacecraft Solutions revealed in the Q2 2025 report.
Triggering events:
- The September 22, 2025 Q2 earnings release, which showed a 26% year‑over‑year revenue decline and a 49% drop in Spacecraft Solutions revenue. ^[41]
- The September 29, 2025 disclosure of the Alpha Flight 7 test failure. ^[42]

The complaint argues that these events revealed previously undisclosed risks, causing sharp share price drops and thus investor losses. These assertions remain allegations, not court‑proven facts.

Multiple law firms, same core story

Levi & Korsinsky is not alone. Over the past several weeks:

Johnson Fistel, Faruqi & Faruqi, The Gross Law Firm, Schall Law Firm, Bernstein Liebhard, and others have announced investigations or class actions, generally centered on the same IPO‑era disclosures and the Alpha test failure. ^[43]
Several notices emphasize a lead plaintiff deadline of January 12, 2026, inviting investors who bought during the IPO period to step forward. ^[44]

On December 11, 2025 specifically, new PRs from the DJS Law Group again highlighted securities law violation claims against Firefly and encouraged investors who suffered losses to contact the firm—reinforcing that the class‑action campaign is still building. ^[45]

For shareholders, these suits introduce:

Reputational risk – allegations of misleading IPO disclosures can weigh on sentiment.
Financial risk – potential settlements or judgments down the road, plus legal expenses.
Management distraction – leadership must devote time and focus to legal defense as well as operations.

However, securities class actions often take years to resolve, and outcomes are uncertain. The mere existence of litigation does not prove wrongdoing, but it does add another layer of risk that the market must price.

Bull vs. Bear: What Investors Are Focusing On

Reasons for optimism

Analysts and bullish commentators highlight several positives:

Real, growing revenue base
- Firefly has moved beyond the pre‑revenue phase, with trailing‑12‑month revenue above $100 million and Q3 demonstrating near‑triple‑digit sequential growth. ^[46]
Large and diversified backlog
- A backlog of around $1.1–1.3 billion, spread across NASA lunar missions, national security contracts, and commercial customers, offers medium‑term visibility. ^[47]
Lunar first‑mover advantage
- Blue Ghost’s successful landing and ongoing missions, plus NASA’s 2029 south‑pole mission, position Firefly as a key player in CLPS and cislunar infrastructure. ^[48]
SciTec and defense tailwinds
- The SciTec acquisition deepens Firefly’s exposure to missile defense, surveillance, and analytics, areas likely to benefit from rising defense spending. ^[49]
Analyst upside vs. current price
- Even after recent target cuts, the average target around $40 implies substantial upside from roughly $21, assuming Firefly can execute and the broader space market cooperates. ^[50]

Reasons for caution

More cautious voices emphasize:

Persistent heavy losses
- With ~$112 million in trailing revenue and nearly $396 million in trailing net losses, Firefly is deeply unprofitable, and future capital raises are a real possibility. ^[51]
Technical execution risk
- The Alpha rocket’s mixed track record and the September explosion highlight that launch operations remain high‑risk. Further failures could harm both reputation and economics. ^[52]
Legal and regulatory uncertainty
- Multiple securities suits and allegations about IPO disclosures may weigh on the stock and, depending on outcomes, impose significant costs. ^[53]
Valuation and dilution
- Even after the sell‑off, commentary notes that Firefly has traded at a rich price‑to‑sales multiple relative to traditional aerospace peers, while share count has already risen due to the SciTec deal. ^[54]
Competitive landscape
- Firefly competes with well‑funded rivals like SpaceX (private) and Rocket Lab, as well as traditional defense primes, in launch, lunar services, and national security space. ^[55]

Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

For investors watching Firefly on December 11, 2025, the story going into 2026 hinges on a few pivotal questions:

Can Alpha return to a reliable launch cadence?
Successful test flights and commercial missions would go a long way toward rebuilding confidence after the test explosion and FAA scrutiny. ^[56]
Will Blue Ghost Mission 2 and later missions deliver without major issues?
The Volta payload and other international and commercial customers on Blue Ghost Mission 2 will be closely watched as a proof of Firefly’s ability to operate multi‑customer lunar infrastructure, not just one‑off missions. ^[57]
How smoothly will SciTec be integrated?
If Firefly can combine its launch and lunar capabilities with SciTec’s defense analytics to win larger national security contracts, revenue could scale much faster than a launch‑only model would allow. ^[58]
What happens with the lawsuits?
Litigation will likely move slowly, but any major developments—dismissals, settlements, or damaging disclosures—could swing sentiment sharply. ^[59]

Given these moving parts, many analysts characterize Firefly as a high‑risk, high‑reward space and defense stock: potentially compelling for investors who understand the volatility and litigation risk, but clearly unsuitable for anyone needing stable, near‑term cash‑flow visibility. ^[60]

Bottom Line

As of December 11, 2025, Firefly Aerospace sits at the intersection of:

Cutting‑edge achievements (the first fully successful commercial Moon landing, multi‑mission CLPS pipeline, major NASA and defense contracts),
Aggressive growth (near‑triple‑digit Q3 revenue growth, raised 2025 guidance, the sizable SciTec acquisition), and
Meaningful risks (rocket failures, steep post‑IPO drawdown, rich valuation history, and a broad front of securities class actions).

The stock’s sharp rebound in early December—fueled by strong Q3 numbers, raised guidance, and the Volta lunar power partnership—shows how quickly sentiment can turn when Firefly executes. ^[61]

But the legal cloud and technical uncertainty remain very real, and they help explain why Wall Street has simultaneously cut price targets and maintained a Buy‑leaning consensus: the upside may be large, but so is the range of possible outcomes. ^[62]