New York, Jan 16, 2026, 11:46 EST — Regular session
- Firefly shares jumped roughly 13% in late-morning trading, reaching an intraday peak close to $34.29
- Morgan Stanley lifted its price target to $33 from $27 but maintained an equal-weight rating
- Attention shifts to Firefly’s upcoming Alpha launch, a “return to flight” mission the company aims to carry out in the next few weeks
Shares of Firefly Aerospace Inc surged on Friday following a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, pushing the stock sharply upward in a volatile sector of the market.
Shares of the space and defense firm climbed roughly 13% to $33.68, bouncing between $30.48 and $34.29 during the session.
The move came after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Firefly to $33 from $27, while maintaining an “equal-weight” rating, MT Newswires reported. The price target reflects where the analyst expects the stock to trade over the next year; an equal-weight rating typically indicates a projection of in-line performance. 1
Why the call is coming now: Firefly is working to recalibrate expectations following a scorching debut that left its stock vulnerable to every launch update and analyst revision. The company set its initial public offering price at $45 a share back in August 2025, according to Reuters. 2
Firefly develops and runs rockets and spacecraft for both government and commercial clients, offering products such as the Alpha launch vehicle and the Blue Ghost lunar lander, according to Reuters company data. The company is also working on Eclipse, a larger, reusable rocket. 3
Traders are also focused on Firefly’s launch timeline. The company announced earlier this week that its Alpha rocket will get a “Block II” upgrade, with Flight 7 set for launch in the next few weeks and Flight 8 planned to feature the full upgrade. “The Block II upgrade has been part of Firefly’s strategic growth plan,” CEO Jason Kim said in a statement. 4
Firefly described Block II as a step up in reliability and production, featuring a longer rocket, in-house developed batteries and avionics, plus redesigned propellant tanks. The firm plans to trial select upgrades on Flight 7, with the entire Block II package scheduled for Flight 8. 4
The sector backdrop is crucial as well. Investors have moved swiftly between space stocks like Rocket Lab and other launch and lunar-mission companies, where sentiment can flip overnight after just one test milestone.
Launch schedules can be tricky. Firefly has been deep into Alpha Flight 7 prep following a first-stage ground test back in September 2025. The company later flagged a process mistake that caused “a minute hydrocarbon contamination” and triggered a combustion event. They’ve since outlined fixes. “This incident was not caused by a design issue, but rather a process error,” said chief engineer Jordi Paredes Garcia. 5
Friday’s jump leaves slim margin for error. Shares are now above Morgan Stanley’s revised target, so any delay in launch, limited range, or test setbacks could quickly put the rally to the test.
Investors are now watching for progress on Alpha Flight 7’s pre-launch tests and the launch schedule, plus whether Firefly can maintain its Block II timeline as Flight 8 approaches. 4
