New York, Jan 18, 2026, 07:26 EST — Market closed.
- Firefly Aerospace shares ended Friday up 12.3%, closing at $33.41 as the market heads into a holiday-shortened week.
- Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $33 from $27 but maintained a neutral “Equal Weight” rating.
- Focus now turns to the timing of Alpha Flight 7 and the Feb. 7 share lock-up expiry linked to a previous deal.
Shares of Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY.O) jumped 12.3% to close at $33.41 on Friday, with roughly 5 million shares traded. The surge came after a Morgan Stanley analyst raised their price target. U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and resume trading Tuesday. 1
The jump follows renewed investor interest in U.S.-listed space stocks sparked by a new IPO filing. Satellite manufacturer York Space Systems filed on Friday, while Running Point Capital Advisors partner Michael Ashley Schulman highlighted a more robust “demand signal” from Washington after December’s executive order on commercial space services. 2
Timing is crucial for Firefly, which currently has little beyond execution to offer. Traders see the stock as a gauge of whether smaller “lift” companies—the ones that physically launch payloads—can transition from one-off missions to steady, repeat business and more reliable revenue streams.
Morgan Stanley’s Kristine Liwag bumped her price target to $33 from $27 but maintained an “Equal Weight” rating, signaling a neutral stance. “Investors are watching the extent to which lift providers can commercialize new offerings and meaningfully increase cadence this year,” Liwag said, according to TheFly. 3
Firefly announced earlier this week it will roll out a “Block II” upgrade for its Alpha rocket. The company plans to use the upcoming Alpha Flight 7, slated for the next few weeks, to trial several Block II subsystems “in shadow mode.” CEO Jason Kim described the Block II upgrade as a key part of Firefly’s strategic growth. Launch exec Adam Oakes added that Flight 7 will serve as a testbed before the full Block II debut on Flight 8. 4
Firefly’s jump came amid a solid day for space stocks overall. Rocket Lab climbed 6.1% following a Morgan Stanley upgrade. AST SpaceMobile jumped 14.3% after landing a contract connected to a U.S. Missile Defense Agency program, according to Investors Business Daily. 5
Firefly’s track record isn’t spotless. According to LSEG data on Reuters, the company pulled in roughly $60.8 million in revenue for 2024 but ran a net loss near $231.1 million. That kind of profile makes the stock vulnerable to any hiccups in launch timing or expenses. 6
Rockets don’t forgive mistakes, and “cadence” remains just a buzzword until the launch crew proves it. If Flight 7 slips or the Block II upgrades fall short of boosting reliability and output, the enthusiasm sparked by Friday’s analyst note could fade fast.
Another date is coming into focus. A SciTec filing with the SEC reveals a lock-up clause preventing certain sellers from offloading Firefly shares gained in the deal until February 7, 2026. Once that restriction ends, it could boost market supply. 7
When trading resumes Tuesday, investors will be watching if Firefly’s gains hold without new headlines and whether the company provides a clearer update on the Alpha Flight 7 launch window. After that, the next key date is Feb. 7, when the lock-up expiry could trigger selling pressure.
