As silver breaks through historic price levels in December 2025, First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG; TSX: AG) has turned into one of the market’s most aggressive ways to bet on the metal.
As of 10 December 2025, First Majestic Silver stock is trading around $15.4 per share on the NYSE, near the top of its 52‑week range of roughly $5.09–$16.28, after a huge run‑up this year. [1]
At the same time, spot silver has surged past $60/oz for the first time ever, roughly doubling in 2025 on the back of deep supply deficits and booming demand from solar, EVs and electronics. [2]
Into this backdrop, First Majestic has posted record production and earnings, issued detailed 2025 guidance, and just closed a US$350 million ultra‑low‑coupon convertible note offering that reshapes its balance sheet. [3]
Below is a deep dive into where the stock stands today, what the latest numbers say, and how analysts and models see AG from here.
Where First Majestic Silver (AG) Stock Stands on 10 December 2025
- Share price (NYSE: AG): about $15.4 intraday on December 10. [4]
- 52‑week range: roughly $5.09–$16.28, putting the current price close to the upper end. [5]
- Market capitalization: around US$7.5–7.6 billion. [6]
- Valuation:
- Dividend: token payout of $0.02 per share annually (≈0.13% yield), with the latest ex‑dividend date on 14 November 2025. [9]
Performance has been explosive:
- Different trackers show well over a 100% gain year‑to‑date, with estimates typically in the 150–190% range depending on exchange and exact cut‑off date. [10]
- Over the last 12 months, AG has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the broader Basic Materials sector by a huge margin. [11]
In short, AG is no longer a deep‑value turnaround play. It is now a high‑beta momentum stock tightly linked to the fate of silver.
Silver’s Record Run: The Macro Fuel Behind AG
Silver’s move is the starting point for understanding First Majestic’s stock:
- Futures prices recently breached $60/oz, logging multiple intraday record highs. [12]
- 2025 has seen silver roughly double in price, with some data providers putting year‑to‑date gains near +100%. [13]
- Analysts highlight:
- Persistent physical deficits in the silver market.
- Surging industrial demand — particularly from solar photovoltaics and electronics.
- Expectations that global central banks, including the Fed, will cut rates into 2026, supporting precious metals as a macro hedge. [14]
First Majestic’s 2025 guidance assumes a silver price of $29/oz for planning purposes. [15]
With spot silver now more than double that level, the company is operating with very wide margins — as long as silver can stay elevated. The flipside is obvious: any sharp reversal in silver could hit AG disproportionately hard.
Q3 2025: Record Production, Profits and Cash Flow
First Majestic’s most recent reported quarter, Q3 2025 (ended 30 September), was arguably the strongest in the company’s history.
Operational highlights
From its four producing underground mines in Mexico — Los Gatos, Santa Elena, San Dimas and La Encantada — First Majestic delivered: [16]
- 7.7 million silver‑equivalent (AgEq) ounces of attributable production, up 39% year‑over‑year.
- Included within that:
- 3.9 million ounces of silver, a 96% YoY increase, a new quarterly record.
- 35,681 ounces of gold.
- 13.9 million pounds of zinc and 7.7 million pounds of lead.
- Approximately 1.4 million ounces of silver came from Los Gatos, acquired via the Gatos Silver deal completed in January 2025, where First Majestic now holds a 70% JV interest. [17]
Management stressed that Los Gatos integration is “nearly complete,” with operational systems aligned across the portfolio and exploration success at both San Dimas and Los Gatos helping extend mine life. [18]
Financial highlights
The surge in volumes and prices filtered directly into the income statement and cash flow: [19]
- Revenue:
- Q3 2025 revenue reached $285.1 million, up 95% from $146.1 million a year earlier, with 56% of sales from silver.
- Average realized silver price was about $39.03 per AgEq ounce.
- Profitability:
- Mine operating earnings jumped to $99.1 million vs $28.5 million in Q3 2024.
- EBITDA climbed to $128.6 million, more than triple the prior year.
- Net income swung to a $43.0 million profit (EPS $0.06) compared with a $26.6 million loss (‑$0.09) a year earlier.
- Cash flow & balance sheet:
- Operating cash flow before working capital reached a record $141.3 million.
- Free cash flow hit $98.8 million for the quarter.
- The company ended Q3 with a record treasury of $568.8 million (about $435.4 million in cash and equivalents plus $133.4 million in restricted cash) and total liquidity of $682 million including its undrawn credit facility.
Costs
Despite inflationary pressure across mining, First Majestic managed modest cost improvements: [20]
- Cash costs fell to $14.83 per AgEq ounce (about 2% lower YoY).
- Q3 all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) were reported around $20.9 per AgEq in company slide materials, down about 1% year‑over‑year.
- Under 2025 guidance assumptions, cash costs would have been closer to $13.70 per ounce, highlighting leverage to higher prices.
With spot silver now above $60, that cost structure translates into very high unit margins — but only as long as silver holds anywhere near current levels.
2025 Production and Cost Guidance: Bigger, Deeper, More Capital-Intensive
In February 2025, First Majestic published detailed full‑year 2025 guidance for its four Mexican mines, incorporating Los Gatos for the first time. [21]
Production
For 2025, management expects:
- Total attributable production:27.9–31.1 million AgEq ounces.
- Silver production:13.6–15.3 million ounces.
- Gold:129–144k ounces.
- Lead: roughly 28.7–32.0 million pounds.
- Zinc: about 47.3–52.7 million pounds.
The biggest incremental driver versus 2024 is the consolidation of Los Gatos, plus higher expected output at Santa Elena and La Encantada as operations normalize.
Costs
On a consolidated basis, the company guides to: [22]
- Cash costs:$14.10–$14.86 per AgEq ounce.
- AISC:$19.89–$21.27 per AgEq ounce.
- AISC excluding non‑cash items:$19.35–$20.67 per AgEq ounce.
Given that guidance assumes $29/oz silver and $2,500/oz gold, today’s prices imply material upside to these modeled margins — but also the possibility of disappointment if metals revert lower.
Capital and exploration
First Majestic plans an aggressive 2025 investment program: [23]
- Total capex: about $182 million, up roughly 34% vs revised 2024 levels.
- $80 million sustaining.
- $102 million expansionary.
- Breakdown:
- Underground development: $74 million.
- Exploration drilling: $49 million.
- Property, plant & equipment: $56 million.
- Corporate innovation projects: $3 million.
- Exploration: ~270,000 metres of drilling planned in 2025, heavily focused on San Dimas, Santa Elena, Los Gatos and Jerritt Canyon.
- Development: ~35,500 metres of underground development, including major ramp and vein development across San Dimas, Santa Elena, Los Gatos and La Encantada.
This blueprint reinforces First Majestic’s identity as a growth‑oriented silver producer, not a “harvest and dividend” story.
The New US$350 Million Convertible Notes: Cheap Capital, Modest Dilution
On 8 December 2025, First Majestic closed a US$350 million offering of unsecured convertible senior notes due 2031. [24]
Key terms
- Principal amount:
- US$300 million base deal, plus US$50 million from the over‑allotment option, for a total of US$350 million.
- Coupon: just 0.125%, paid semi‑annually — extremely cheap debt given current interest rate levels.
- Maturity: 2031.
- Conversion terms:
- Initial conversion rate of 44.7227 shares per US$1,000 principal.
- Implied conversion price ≈ US$22.36 per share, roughly 45% above the current NYSE trading price around $15.4. [25]
Use of proceeds and liability management
The company plans to: [26]
- Use about US$214.7 million to repurchase roughly US$174.7 million of its 0.375% convertible notes due 2027 in privately negotiated transactions.
- Devote the remainder to general corporate purposes, including “strategic opportunities” — which could mean further expansion, exploration, M&A or balance sheet flexibility.
Dilution math
If fully converted at the initial price, the US$350 million of notes could create roughly 15.65 million new shares (US$350k x 44.7227), equivalent to about 3–4% dilution on top of the current ~491 million shares outstanding. [27]
Because the conversion price sits well above today’s level, that dilution only becomes real if AG’s share price continues to climb significantly. In the meantime, the notes:
- Extend the company’s debt maturity profile.
- Lock in very low interest costs.
- Add to what was already a strong liquidity position.
For shareholders, the trade‑off is slightly higher financial leverage plus future equity dilution, in exchange for growth capital and reduced near‑term refinancing risk.
Tax Dispute with Mexico: A Big, Very Real Overhang
While the fundamentals look strong, First Majestic carries a material legal and tax overhang in Mexico.
On 30 October 2025, Mexico’s Supreme Court of Justice (SCJN) upheld a tax ruling against Primero Empresa Minera, First Majestic’s Mexican subsidiary, confirming an obligation to pay about 2.87 billion pesos (≈US$155 million) linked to 2012 income and single‑rate business taxes (IETU), including surcharges and penalties. [28]
Industry coverage notes that: [29]
- The decision sharply limits the company’s ability to appeal domestically.
- First Majestic is continuing international arbitration under NAFTA/USMCA, arguing that Mexican tax authorities improperly walked away from an earlier advance pricing agreement (APA). [30]
- The company has historically not recorded the full amount as a liability in its financial statements, based on legal advice and expectations of a favorable resolution — something that watchdogs and some commentators have criticized.
If First Majestic ultimately has to pay most or all of this 2012 assessment (and possibly related years), that could consume a significant chunk of its current cash balance, even if spread out over time. At the same time, the robust free‑cash‑flow profile and new convertible financing improve the company’s ability to absorb such a hit.
For investors, the tax dispute is a key medium‑term risk factor and a major reason the stock remains controversial despite stellar operating results.
Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Fundamental Forecasts
Sell‑side and data‑provider views on AG have shifted rapidly as the stock has rerated.
Earnings expectations
According to recent analyst consensus data: [31]
- 2025 EPS is expected around $0.29.
- 2026 EPS is projected to rise toward $0.65, driven by higher volumes, the Los Gatos integration, and operating leverage to silver prices.
- The company has already swung decisively from losses in 2024 to solid profitability in 2025.
Price targets and ratings
Different platforms are not perfectly aligned, partly because the stock price has run ahead of older research:
- TipRanks:
- 5 Wall Street analysts over the past three months.
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy.
- Average 12‑month price target: about $16.47, with a range of roughly $12.50 to $22.00, implying single‑digit to mid‑teens percentage upside from current levels. [32]
- Yahoo Finance / Public.com:
- Shows a 1‑year target around $15.00 and a “Buy” consensus from a smaller sample (two analysts), essentially in line with the present share price. [33]
- StockAnalysis & Benzinga‑sourced data:
- Indicate an average target near $14.25 from three analysts, with a high of $17.50 and low of $12.50 — estimates that now sit below the current market price after the recent rally. [34]
Overall, Wall Street is positive but not wildly euphoric:
- Ratings cluster around “Moderate/Strong Buy”, reflecting improved operations and strong silver leverage.
- But average targets only slightly exceed (or even lag) today’s price, suggesting that analysts see limited further upside unless silver continues to surprise to the upside or the company materially beats earnings expectations.
Valuation and DCF views
Some independent equity research and DCF‑style models still view the stock as modestly undervalued:
- A discounted cash‑flow analysis highlighted on Yahoo/Simply Wall St recently suggested AG might trade roughly 20–25% below its modeled intrinsic value, even after a ~155% year‑to‑date gain — but that estimate is highly sensitive to long‑term silver price assumptions. [35]
Given the extreme commodity exposure, no valuation model is particularly “safe”: both upside and downside scenarios are wide.
Quant, Technical and AI‑Driven Signals
Beyond fundamental analysts, a wave of quant and AI tools has latched onto First Majestic’s trend.
Technical and momentum picture
Across multiple services, AG screens as a strong momentum name: [36]
- The stock is trading well above its 50‑, 150‑ and 200‑day moving averages on both U.S. and Canadian listings.
- Several platforms note that AG has outperformed 95–97% of tracked stocks over 2025.
- One analysis highlighted:
- 3‑month performance exceeding +60%.
- Year‑to‑date gains around 150–190%, depending on the data cut.
- A recent seven‑day streak that added about 43% in market value.
This has made AG a popular target for momentum traders, not just long‑term silver bulls.
Intellectia AI forecast
AI‑driven platform Intellectia currently labels First Majestic as a “Strong Buy” technical candidate, noting: [37]
- A bullish moving‑average structure, with short‑term averages above longer‑term ones.
- Multiple bullish indicators (positive MACD, momentum and “awesome oscillator”), offset by some overbought readings (e.g., Williams %R).
- Short‑term price predictions of:
- Roughly +0.5% over 1 day,
- +0.34% over 1 week,
- but a pullback toward the mid‑$14s over one month, and separate pattern‑matching analysis suggesting a potential ~19% drawdown over the next month based on historical analogues.
As with all quant forecasts, those numbers should be treated as heuristic, not destiny. The key takeaway is that algorithms see strong short‑term momentum but also elevated risk of a sharp mean‑reversion after such a steep run.
Balance of Opportunities: Why Bulls Like AG
Supporters of First Majestic Silver stock in late 2025 generally point to a few core themes:
- Maximal leverage to silver First Majestic markets itself as one of the “purest” silver producers, with a high proportion of revenue from silver rather than gold or base metals. [38] In a world where silver trades at $60+ while cash costs sit in the mid‑teens and AISC around $20/oz, the company’s margins are extraordinarily sensitive to small moves in the metal.
- Operational turnaround and scale-up
- The Gatos Silver acquisition and sustained improvements at San Dimas and Santa Elena have transformed First Majestic from a struggling producer into a company generating record throughput, revenue and free cash flow. [39]
- 2025 guidance implies double‑digit percentage growth in AgEq volumes versus 2024, with a multi‑year runway for further exploration‑driven growth. [40]
- Balance sheet strength and optionality
- Exploration pipeline
- A planned 270,000 metres of drilling in 2025 across key districts (San Dimas, Santa Elena, Los Gatos, Jerritt Canyon) underscores a growth‑through‑exploration strategy that could extend mine lives and add high‑grade ounces. [43]
For investors with a bullish view on silver, AG offers concentrated exposure, backed by a demonstrably improving asset base.
Key Risks: Why Bears Stay Cautious
The bullish case sits alongside substantial risks, some of which are specific to First Majestic:
- Silver price volatility
- Silver is historically more volatile than gold, often overshooting in both directions.
- Several analysts warn that after moving so far so fast, a pullback from $60+ back into the $30s–$40s is plausible, which would compress margins and likely trigger a valuation reset for high‑beta miners like AG. [44]
- Legal and tax uncertainties in Mexico
- The 2.87 billion peso Supreme Court ruling for the 2012 tax year is a final domestic judgment and a real liability, even if enforcement and potential settlement remain uncertain. [45]
- SAT has also issued additional tax assessments for later years, which the company disputes but which increase the total potential exposure. [46]
- Ongoing NAFTA/USMCA arbitration may still result in a negotiated solution, but outcomes are inherently unpredictable and could take years. [47]
- Valuation risk after a parabolic move
- Execution and cost control
- First Majestic is simultaneously integrating an acquisition, ramping exploration, and lifting capex by more than 30%. [50]
- Any deterioration in grade, throughput, or local operating conditions could push cash costs and AISC higher, eroding the margin expansion silver has gifted the company.
- Political and regulatory risk
- Mexico’s mining regulatory framework remains in flux, with broader industry concerns about permitting, royalties and environmental enforcement. [51]
- Changes to mining law or tax enforcement could affect both existing operations and future projects.
Bottom Line: How First Majestic Silver Stock Looks on 10 December 2025
As of 10 December 2025, First Majestic Silver (AG) sits at the intersection of:
- A historic silver bull market,
- A transformed operating profile with record production and profits, and
- A high‑stakes legal and valuation equation that could swing investor sentiment quickly in either direction.
In practical terms:
- Bulls see a high‑leverage play on silver’s new era, backed by real operational progress, strong balance sheet liquidity, and a robust growth pipeline.
- Bears note the tax cloud in Mexico, the very rich valuation after a near‑tripling of the share price, and the inherent instability of a commodity‑driven story.
For investors, AG now looks less like a neglected turnaround and more like a crowded momentum trade whose future returns will largely depend on:
- Silver’s ability to stay elevated,
- The resolution (or escalation) of the Mexican tax dispute, and
- Management’s success in delivering on 2025–2026 guidance without major cost surprises.
References
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