NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 1:59 a.m. ET — Market closed
First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG) is heading into the final week of the year with a tailwind that silver miners dream about and traders fear: historic prices in the underlying metal, arriving during thin, year-end liquidity when markets can gap on headlines and momentum can look like a law of physics.
With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, AG shares are paused—but the drivers behind the tape are very much awake. Friday’s post-holiday session was light on catalysts across equities, yet precious-metals names stood out as silver and gold pushed deeper into record territory, lifting miners alongside them. [1]
AG stock snapshot: where shares left off heading into the weekend
First Majestic ended Friday’s session around $17.42, up about $0.20 on the day (roughly +1.16%), after trading between $16.98 and $18.05 with volume near 21.85 million shares.
That wide range matters. When a stock is swinging more than a dollar intraday at a mid-teens price, investors aren’t just debating “up or down”—they’re debating position sizing, volatility, and timing. In year-end trade, those debates can get louder because there are fewer participants to absorb big orders.
The last 48 hours: record silver, thin markets, and miners catching a bid
In the broader market, Friday’s session was muted: Wall Street drifted near record levels in light, post-Christmas trading, with the “Santa Claus rally” window still in play into early January. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, framed the moment as markets “catching their breath” after a strong run, while also warning investors that volatility is the “toll” paid for long-term gains. [2]
For AG and other silver-linked equities, the more immediate catalyst has been the metal itself.
On Friday, Reuters reported spot silver breaking above $77 and touching a record $77.40/oz, with gold also printing fresh highs—moves attributed to a mix of rate-cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risk. Reuters also quoted Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, who said thin markets are driving volatility and that while profit-taking risk exists into year-end, “the trend remains strong.” Grant added that $80 silver is “within reach” and outlined additional upside objectives for gold. [3]
That same day, Investopedia noted gold futures around $4,543/oz and silver futures around $75.67/oz, highlighting how aggressively precious metals have moved in December and across 2025. [4]
And in a separate Reuters market wrap, U.S.-listed precious-metals miners—including First Majestic—were explicitly called out as rising as silver and gold hit record highs. [5]
The key investor takeaway: AG is behaving like a “levered expression” of the silver narrative, which can be wonderful in a melt-up—and brutal if the commodity cools or if traders lock in profits into year-end.
Why AG is unusually sensitive to this silver cycle
Silver is not just a store-of-value story anymore; it’s increasingly a hybrid asset—part monetary metal, part industrial input. Barron’s coverage of the latest precious-metals surge pointed to record silver prices above $75 and described a mix of industrial demand and macro fears (including currency debasement concerns) driving the move, citing commentary from Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth on what’s behind the rally. [6]
When silver spikes this hard, miners can move even harder because the market starts rapidly repricing future cash flows—especially for producers with expanding output and improving costs. That repricing, however, is rarely smooth.
Company fundamentals and catalysts investors are still digesting
Even though there were no major company press releases in the last 24–48 hours, First Majestic has laid out several operational and corporate markers that investors continue to trade around.
2025 guidance: production, costs, and capital plans
In its 2025 guidance, First Majestic projected total attributable production of 27.8 to 31.2 million silver-equivalent ounces (AgEq), including 13.6 to 15.3 million ounces of silver, across its operating mines. [7]
On costs, the company guided to consolidated 2025 all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $19.89 to $21.27 per payable AgEq ounce, and it also provided mine-by-mine cash cost and AISC ranges. [8]
It also outlined ~$182 million in planned 2025 capital expenditures (sustaining and expansionary combined), alongside an expanded exploration and development plan. [9]
Why this matters now: when the underlying commodity price explodes higher, investors immediately ask whether production and costs can hold steady enough for margins to expand—or whether inflation, throughput constraints, and reinvestment needs will eat the upside.
Q3 performance: production and free cash flow
From a recent financial baseline, the company reported record quarterly silver production in Q3 2025 (including contributions from Los Gatos) and highlighted record free cash flow of $98.8 million for the quarter. [10]
Those figures have been part of the bull case: higher output plus strong cash generation gives a miner more flexibility to invest, de-lever, or return capital—if the commodity tape cooperates.
Financing: convertible notes due 2031
In early December, First Majestic priced a $300 million offering of unsecured convertible senior notes due 2031 (with an option that could raise the total to $350 million). The notes carried 0.125% cash interest, with an initial conversion price of roughly $22.36 per share (a premium to the prior close at the time), and the company said proceeds would be used to repurchase part of its existing 2027 convertibles and for general corporate purposes. [11]
For equity investors, convertibles are a double-edged spell: they can reduce near-term cash interest costs and refinance risk, but they also introduce potential dilution if the stock rallies through conversion levels.
Portfolio move: Del Toro sale structure (up to $60 million)
First Majestic also announced a definitive agreement to sell its past-producing Del Toro mine to Sierra Madre Gold & Silver for total consideration of up to $60 million, structured as $30 million upfront at closing and up to $30 million in delayed/contingent payments. [12]
The upfront portion includes $20 million cash plus $10 million in Sierra Madre shares at $1.30 per share. Additional payments include $10 million within 18 months of closing (cash or shares), $10 million contingent on delineating a resource threshold, and another $10 million contingent on achieving commercial production metrics (including a 4,000 tpd milestone for 30 consecutive days within 60 months). [13]
The transaction is also conditional on financing and approvals, with Sierra Madre’s financing and a shareholder vote timeline extending into 2026. [14]
Investors often like divestments when they simplify the story or recycle capital toward core assets—especially during a bull market for the underlying commodity. But the market also discounts deals with multi-step contingencies, long timelines, and equity consideration.
Analyst and forecast check: what the Street is implying
In the most recent 48-hour window, one of the more widely circulated summaries came from MarketBeat, which reported that AG gapped up premarket Friday and cited a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average price target around $17.33, alongside references to prior analyst upgrades at firms including TD Securities, National Bank Financial, and Cormark. [15]
MarketWatch’s analyst-estimates snapshot (as displayed on its quote page) also pointed to an average target price in the $17.16 area and an “Overweight” average recommendation. [16]
Read those targets carefully. With AG trading around $17.4, the stock is already sitting near the center of that target band, suggesting one of two things is true (or both):
- analysts have already moved targets up to reflect the silver move, or
- the market has front-run the next round of revisions, and targets may lag (up or down) depending on how sustainable silver’s spike proves to be.
The “next session” question: what investors should watch before Monday’s open
Because markets are closed now, the smart move is not to stare at a frozen stock quote—it’s to track the variables that can reprice AG when trading resumes Monday, Dec. 29.
1) Silver’s next move, and whether profit-taking shows up
Reuters’ Peter Grant flagged both the strength of the trend and the risk of profit-taking into year-end, especially in thin conditions. [17]
If silver pulls back sharply (or gaps higher again), miners like AG can respond with amplified moves.
2) Liquidity and year-end positioning
Thin, post-holiday markets can exaggerate price moves. Reuters described Friday’s equity session as light-volume and catalyst-poor, while still inside the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window. [18]
In plain English: fewer players, bigger gaps, more “air pockets.”
3) Tax-driven flows and the calendar effect
MarketWatch highlighted the way year-end timing and capital-gains dynamics can shape selling (or a lack of selling) around the turn of the year. [19]
For a stock that has seen strong momentum, the tax calendar can influence whether investors press bets, trim, or simply wait for January.
4) Company-specific checkpoints that can suddenly matter again
Even without fresh headlines this weekend, investors may reprice AG based on:
- progress perception around the Del Toro transaction structure and timeline [20]
- balance-sheet and dilution narratives tied to the 2031 convertible notes [21]
- whether results continue to support the company’s production, cost, and capex framework [22]
5) Upcoming earnings timing
Earnings dates can shift, but third-party calendars currently point to an expected next report in mid-February 2026 (estimated, not confirmed by the company). [23]
With metals this volatile, investors often start “positioning early” for guidance updates, not just the quarter itself.
Bottom line
First Majestic Silver (AG) goes into Monday’s session as a classic momentum-and-macro crossover trade: a silver miner with improving operational scale and a clear cost framework—now being repriced in real time by an extraordinary move in the metal itself. [24]
When silver is breaking records, AG can feel like a rocket booster. But rockets don’t just go up—they also shake, rattle, and occasionally scare the passengers. For investors, the weekend homework is straightforward: watch silver’s trajectory, respect year-end liquidity, and understand the company-specific levers (guidance, financing, and asset transactions) that can magnify whatever the commodity market decides to do next. [25]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.firstmajestic.com, 8. www.firstmajestic.com, 9. www.firstmajestic.com, 10. www.firstmajestic.com, 11. www.firstmajestic.com, 12. www.firstmajestic.com, 13. www.firstmajestic.com, 14. www.firstmajestic.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.firstmajestic.com, 21. www.firstmajestic.com, 22. www.firstmajestic.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. www.firstmajestic.com, 25. www.reuters.com
