Vancouver, British Columbia, May 12, 2026, 05:06 (PDT)
- First Majestic surged ahead of earnings on silver strength, but shares pulled back early as the market digested strong cash numbers and rising mine expenses.
- Here’s the straightforward bull argument: elevated silver prices are directly boosting revenue, free cash flow, and dividends.
- There’s a bear case to consider, too. Silver output dropped, AISC climbed, and macro traders aren’t betting on rate cuts to offer much relief anytime soon.
First Majestic Silver’s Q1 numbers dropped into a stock that had already climbed sharply. On Monday, the U.S. shares finished just shy of $23.60, a jump of nearly 8%. By 7:51 a.m. ET in premarket action, the price had slipped to $22.68 after results hit and the company scheduled its earnings call for 11:30 a.m. ET.
The early pullback was clear enough. Silver led the move, so the chart followed. Reuters market analyst Christopher Romano, on Monday, pointed out that silver had pushed back above two falling trendlines—hinting the downtrend was losing steam. But by Tuesday morning, spot silver slid 3% to $83.50. Rising oil, a stronger dollar, and higher Treasury yields left traders eager to cash in on crowded mining stocks.
First Majestic posted a hefty 95% jump in Q1 revenue to $476.7 million, riding the surge in silver and gold prices. Still, the numbers came with a caveat: the company withheld $63.6 million in bullion from sales. Net earnings attributable to owners landed at $128.1 million, or $0.26 per share, while adjusted net earnings reached $151.7 million.
Free cash flow jumped out this quarter. After covering $95.5 million in cash income taxes, First Majestic managed to pull in $223.5 million for Q1. The company’s treasury hit a record $1.13 billion, a milestone that leaves room to fund mines, restart projects, and push the dividend higher—all without relying as much on outside capital.
The trouble’s below the surface. Silver production dropped to 3.55 million ounces, down from 3.70 million last year, with gold output also edging lower. All-in sustaining costs climbed to $29.76 per silver-equivalent ounce—this metric folds in gold and base metals, translating them into a single silver-ounce figure for easier comparison. The company pointed to a few culprits behind the higher costs: silver outshining its by-product metals, steeper royalties, increased worker bonuses, and a stronger Mexican peso.
Bulls got much of what they were looking for this quarter. Revenue outpaced cost growth, mine operating earnings pushed higher, and the company bumped its Q1 dividend up to $0.0171 per share. Retained bullion inventory is another piece: not all produced metal was booked as revenue, so there’s a layer of unreported metal in reserve—potentially useful if prices stay firm.
Bears have something to chew on: First Majestic looks stretched unless plenty of things break its way. Sure, fatter margins come with higher metals, but so do heavier royalty and labor tabs. Should silver stumble around that $82-$83 ceiling flagged by Reuters, or if Q2 cost guidance falls flat, Monday’s pop could get chalked up to a silver squeeze—not a fundamental reset.
The company is tightening up operations, announcing some moves in the C-suite: Steve Holmes is stepping down as COO, with David Howe stepping in. Alex Thompson is set to take charge of the Jerritt Canyon Gold restart. CEO Keith Neumeyer called Howe’s background “extensive,” and said Thompson’s leadership will be key for what he called a “safe, efficient and exciting restart of Jerritt Canyon.” Stock Titan
Rates haven’t budged. Oddpool’s live cross-venue tracker pegged Kalshi at 97.0% and Polymarket at 96.8% odds for no Fed move in June—almost no chance of a quarter-point cut, either. That’s key: cheaper money tends to drag on the dollar and make non-yielding metals less expensive to hold, but for now, the prediction markets aren’t handing silver that kind of macro boost.
The tape shows it’s not just about First Majestic. Pan American Silver is pushing on free cash flow and returns too, with CEO Michael Steinmann pointing to “strong production” and “disciplined cost management” in the Q1 statement. Hecla Mining and Coeur Mining both posted hefty gains in the latest data—silver beta can light up the entire sector fast. Pan American Silver
Jerritt Canyon complicates the mix. First Majestic is setting aside $75 million for 2026, aiming to get the mine running again in the back half of 2027. There’s a catch: management cautioned that the restart comes with extra technical uncertainty until they finish a pre-feasibility study. Analyst Wayne Lam at TD Cowen described the site as “significant optionality at a higher gold price.” That’s accurate—still, turning that optionality into production means actually building, hiring, and running the mine. First Majestic Silver
The stock’s reaction lines up. First Majestic has proved what higher silver does for earnings. But as trading kicks off, the focus shifts: do those profits hold up if silver slips, expenses climb, and the Nevada restart gets rolling—or does this risk sliding back into another costly, capital-intensive story?
