First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is ending 2025 as one of the clean-energy market’s most watched (and most volatile) names—thanks to a sharp two-day price swing, fresh “AI power” headlines, and a steady drumbeat of policy-driven catalysts.
On the tape, the story is simple: a pop to a new high, followed by a fast pullback. First Solar shares closed at $284.59 on Dec. 22, then fell to $269.39 on Dec. 23 (down 5.34%), after setting an intraday high near $285.99. [1]
With U.S. markets running a holiday-shortened session on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 (early close at 1:00 p.m. ET), traders are also navigating thinner liquidity than usual—often a recipe for exaggerated moves in momentum-heavy names like FSLR. [2]
Below is a detailed, publication-ready roundup of the key First Solar stock news, the newest analyst forecast signals, and the fundamental drivers shaping sentiment as of December 24, 2025.
Why First Solar stock spiked—then slipped
The catalyst: Alphabet agrees to acquire Intersect for $4.75 billion
The week’s biggest headline wasn’t a First Solar press release—it was Alphabet’s.
On Dec. 22, 2025, Alphabet announced a definitive agreement to acquire Intersect (a data-center and energy infrastructure solutions provider) for $4.75 billion in cash, plus the assumption of debt, with closing expected in the first half of 2026. Alphabet said the deal is intended to help bring more data-center and generation capacity online faster, and to accelerate energy development and innovation to support rising demand. [3]
That matters to First Solar because Intersect has been tied to large-scale power development—and the market is currently obsessed with one question: where does the electricity come from for all those AI data centers? Alphabet explicitly framed the acquisition as part of scaling energy and infrastructure in lockstep with data-center growth. [4]
The First Solar connection: module supply agreement cited in Reuters “Buzz”
A Reuters market note (republished by Sahm Capital) highlighted why traders immediately connected the dots:
- First Solar previously entered an agreement (in 2022) to supply 2.4 GW DC of modules to Intersect from 2024–2026, according to the report.
- The same report said those modules would be deployed in Intersect Power projects coming online across the U.S. in 2025–2027 spanning solar, storage, and green hydrogen. [5]
That’s the kind of headline that can light a fuse under a stock—especially one already benefiting from a “domestic manufacturing + power demand” narrative.
So why the pullback?
A one-day drop after a one-day rip is not rare in high-beta clean-energy names—especially when the stock is flirting with new highs.
Fundamentally, some of the pullback can be explained by what looks like valuation and multiple expansion catching up with price. A Trefis breakdown attributes a large portion of First Solar’s rally over the last six months primarily to an increase in the P/E multiple, rather than a big swing in trailing revenues. [6]
In other words: the market’s optimism has already been priced in aggressively, so the stock can become jumpy when incremental news doesn’t immediately justify the new valuation altitude.
First Solar’s latest fundamentals: what the company reported and guided
The most recent deep fundamental anchor for FSLR is the company’s third-quarter 2025 results and its updated 2025 guidance.
Q3 2025 highlights
In its Q3 2025 release, First Solar reported:
- Net sales of $1.6 billion
- Record volume sold of 5.3 GW
- EPS (net income per diluted share) of $4.24
- Gross cash balance of $2.0 billion and net cash balance of $1.5 billion
- 2.7 GW of gross bookings since the prior earnings call at an average selling price of 30.9 cents per watt (excluding contract pricing adjusters)
- Contracted sales backlog of 53.7 GW, valued at $16.4 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025 [7]
Those are the kinds of numbers that explain why First Solar still trades like a “premium” solar manufacturer: long-dated backlog, large-scale shipments, and a balance sheet that looks very different from many solar peers.
Updated 2025 guidance (key ranges)
First Solar also updated its full-year 2025 outlook. The company’s “current” ranges included:
- Net sales: $4.95B to $5.20B
- Earnings per diluted share: $14.00 to $15.00
- Net cash balance: $1.6B to $2.1B (company-defined)
- Capital expenditures: $0.9B to $1.2B
- Volume sold: 16.7 GW to 17.4 GW [8]
The company also disclosed guidance assumptions including:
- $1.56B to $1.59B of Section 45X tax credits (manufacturing tax credits)
- $155M to $165M of ramp/underutilization costs (in the gross margin assumptions) [9]
Those tax credits are not a footnote—they’re a central part of the model the market is using to value U.S. solar manufacturing.
Domestic manufacturing positioning
First Solar reiterated its positioning as a U.S.-based solar technology and manufacturing company, emphasizing that its thin-film PV technology is produced in a fully integrated, continuous process and does not rely on Chinese crystalline silicon supply chains. [10]
This matters in 2025 because policy and trade friction are still reshaping who can sell what (and at what margin) into the U.S. utility-scale market.
Policy and trade: the “headwinds” that can become First Solar’s tailwinds
One of First Solar’s recurring advantages is that it’s often positioned as a “winner” when Washington gets tougher on imported solar components.
A Utility Dive report published in early November described a set of policy and trade “headwinds” for imported solar components that First Solar believes differentiates its domestic supply chain. The report cited factors including:
- The possibility of new Section 232 tariffs on certain imported polysilicon components
- Potential retroactive duties on certain imports tied to an August trade court ruling (covering a period between June 2022 and June 2024, per the report)
- Pending Treasury guidance on domestic content rules for clean-energy equipment [11]
The same Utility Dive reporting also discussed First Solar’s manufacturing expansion cadence, noting the company commissioned a new facility in August and planned additional U.S. finishing capacity. [12]
This policy backdrop is why investors can simultaneously worry about uncertainty (because rules can change) and still pay up for First Solar (because uncertainty often hurts imported supply chains more).
Manufacturing expansion: the next big execution test
First Solar has been explicit about growth through capacity—particularly in the U.S.
Reuters reported that First Solar said it would establish a new 3.7 GW U.S. manufacturing facility, with production expected to begin at the end of 2026, ramping through the first half of 2027. Reuters characterized the facility as one that will “finish” products started at overseas sites, aligning the product with U.S. industrial policy goals. [13]
That expansion story also appeared in the company’s own communications and in trade-focused coverage. [14]
For investors, this is the classic “simple but not easy” part of the thesis:
If First Solar executes cleanly, it can convert backlog and policy advantage into durable cash generation.
If it stumbles, ramp costs and delivery timing can become a drag—especially when expectations are already high.
Contract risk and litigation: the BP dispute still hangs over the story
Not all the news around First Solar’s backlog is purely celebratory.
Reuters reported that customer terminations contributed to a reduced outlook, and noted that First Solar sued a solar division associated with BP for breach of contract, reducing the backlog by 6.6 GW at a total transaction price of $1.9 billion, according to the Reuters report. [15]
Utility Dive’s reporting also discussed the dispute and included a damages figure the company is seeking, along with commentary from company executives. [16]
This is a key nuance for readers: First Solar’s backlog is a major valuation pillar, but the market is still sorting out how to price contract enforcement, termination payments, and the risk of further churn.
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 24, 2025: price targets cluster near the current share price—but the range is wide
Analyst sentiment around First Solar remains broadly constructive, but the price target math is getting interesting as the stock approaches its highs.
The consensus view (MarketBeat snapshot)
MarketBeat’s consensus data (as displayed in December 2025) shows:
- Average 12‑month price target: $271.27
- High: $335
- Low: $150
- Based on that dataset, the average target implied only ~0.70% upside from $269.39. [17]
That “little upside left” read is less bearish than it sounds: it often just means the stock has already run up to where analysts thought it should be trading.
Recent target changes (December 2025)
Several firms adjusted targets in the weeks leading into Dec. 24:
- BMO Capital Markets raised its price target to $285 (from $273) and kept an Outperform rating (reported Dec. 10, 2025). [18]
- Daiwa Capital Markets raised its target to $284 (from $215) and kept an Outperform rating (reported Dec. 9, 2025). [19]
- MarketScreener’s broker-research feed also lists a Wells Fargo target adjustment to $285 from $270 with an Overweight rating dated Dec. 19. [20]
Another lens: Nasdaq’s aggregated target range
A Nasdaq.com note from mid-November summarized a very broad set of analyst targets, listing:
- A range from roughly $151.50 (low) to $351.75 (high)
- An average price target around $273.42 at the time of publication [21]
Big spread = big disagreement. And in First Solar’s case, that disagreement tends to hinge on policy durability, pricing power for domestic modules, and execution on U.S. manufacturing ramp.
How strong has the rally been in 2025?
First Solar’s surge in 2025 is not subtle. FinanceCharts data shows the stock is up about 52.85% year-to-date (total return figure as shown) as of late December. [22]
That kind of run tends to create two simultaneous realities:
- Momentum investors see confirmation and look for the next catalyst.
- Skeptics see valuation compression risk if the next quarterly report isn’t spectacular.
Both camps can be right—just not at the same time.
What to watch next for First Solar stock
1) Holiday trading dynamics (short session on Dec. 24)
With U.S. markets scheduled to close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, watch for exaggerated intraday moves on relatively low volume. [23]
2) Alphabet–Intersect deal progress (closing expected in 1H 2026)
Alphabet expects the Intersect transaction to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary conditions. Any regulatory or timeline updates could spill over into the “power infrastructure” trade that helped lift FSLR. [24]
3) The next earnings checkpoint (late February 2026 estimate)
Earnings calendars vary by provider, but Zacks lists First Solar’s next earnings report date as February 24, 2026. [25]
Between now and then, investors will likely focus on:
- shipment cadence and average selling price signals,
- progress on U.S. facility ramp plans,
- any updates on contract disputes and backlog quality,
- and the latest policy/tariff guidance.
4) Trade policy and domestic-content rulemaking
Utility-scale solar economics can change fast when tariffs, domestic-content rules, or eligibility interpretations shift. First Solar’s strategy is built to benefit from some forms of trade friction—but rule changes can also create near-term noise and customer timing issues. [26]
Bottom line on First Solar stock as of Dec. 24, 2025
First Solar enters the final trading days of 2025 with a rare combination of:
- new-high momentum,
- a policy-supported domestic manufacturing narrative,
- and a real-world demand tailwind tied to the data-center power buildout.
But the stock’s recent action—up hard, down hard—also highlights what comes with that territory: valuation sensitivity and headline-driven volatility.
As of Dec. 24, 2025, the market’s “working theory” looks like this: FSLR is the U.S. solar manufacturer most likely to capture premium pricing in a protectionist, power-hungry era—but it has to keep executing, quarter after quarter, while policy and large-customer dynamics remain in flux. [27]
References
1. investor.firstsolar.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. abc.xyz, 4. abc.xyz, 5. www.sahmcapital.com, 6. www.trefis.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.utilitydive.com, 12. www.utilitydive.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.utilitydive.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.utilitydive.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.financecharts.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. abc.xyz, 25. www.zacks.com, 26. www.utilitydive.com, 27. www.reuters.com
