First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is having one of those “two-step” trading weeks that markets love to choreograph: a sharp rally to new highs, followed by an equally sharp pullback.
On Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025, First Solar stock traded around $267, down about 6% on the session after opening above $280 and swinging through a wide intraday range. The move follows Monday’s surge (including reports of a roughly 6.6% jump) that helped push shares to fresh 52-week highs in the low-to-mid $280s. [1]
So what changed in 24 hours—and what do today’s forecasts and analyst notes say about where FSLR could go next?
First Solar stock price action on Dec. 23: a classic “rip, then retrace”
By the numbers, Tuesday’s action looks like a volatility spike after a breakout attempt:
- Last trade (approx.): $266.96
- Day change: -$17.63 (about -6.2%)
- Intraday: opened ~$282, traded as high as ~$287 and as low as ~$262
Market commentary on Dec. 23 largely framed the decline as a pullback after a fast run, with valuation and profit-taking front and center after the stock tagged new highs earlier this week. [2]
The catalyst behind Monday’s surge: Alphabet’s Intersect deal and why it matters to First Solar
A major reason First Solar was “lighting up the tape” to start the week was Alphabet’s announcement that it will acquire Intersect—a data center and energy infrastructure developer—in a deal valued at $4.75 billion in cash plus the assumption of debt, expected to close in the first half of 2026. [3]
Why would that move FSLR?
Because Intersect has been a large, multi-year buyer of First Solar modules. First Solar disclosed in 2022 that it agreed to supply Intersect with an additional 4.9 GW for 2025–2029 delivery, bringing Intersect’s total 2022 orders for First Solar technology to 7.3 GW, on top of earlier orders. [4]
Reuters’ market “BUZZ” coverage also highlighted the connection, noting that First Solar climbed after the Alphabet–Intersect news and referencing First Solar’s earlier 2.4 GW supply agreement to Intersect for 2024–2026 deliveries. [5]
The market’s implied logic is straightforward: if Alphabet is putting a big balance sheet behind Intersect’s pipeline of power-and-data-center projects, investors may see better funding certainty for projects that could use First Solar’s modules.
That said, Tuesday’s reversal is a reminder that “strategic narrative” rallies can cool quickly when the macro backdrop shifts.
The macro backdrop on Dec. 23: GDP surprise, consumer confidence dip, and rate sensitivity
Solar stocks often trade with a “rate-sensitive” flavor because utility-scale development depends on financing costs. And Dec. 23 delivered a macro combo platter:
- The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 4.3% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025 (a delayed initial estimate), noting the gain reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending, partly offset by a decrease in investment. [6]
- Reuters reported the 4.3% print came in above economists’ expectations (Reuters poll: 3.3%) and marked the fastest pace since Q3 2023. [7]
- Separately, the Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 89.1 in December, according to Reuters. [8]
In other words: stronger growth data can push markets to rethink near-term rate-cut assumptions, while weakening confidence adds uncertainty about forward demand. That’s not a clean setup for a sector that likes stable policy and falling financing costs.
Company fundamentals investors are weighing right now: guidance, backlog, and U.S. manufacturing scale-up
Zooming out from the daily tape: First Solar is still being valued as a scale U.S. manufacturing story with unusually strong visibility—and unusually high policy sensitivity.
Guidance and backlog: the “visibility engine”
In its third-quarter 2025 update (reported Oct. 30), First Solar posted:
- Net sales of about $1.6 billion
- Diluted EPS of $4.24
- Backlog of 53.7 GW, valued at $16.4 billion (as of Sept. 30, 2025) [9]
Management also updated full-year 2025 ranges including:
- Net sales: $4.95B–$5.2B
- EPS: $14.00–$15.00
- Volume sold: 16.7–17.4 GW [10]
Reuters similarly described First Solar as the largest U.S.-based solar panel maker and reported the company lowered some guidance measures after contract changes tied to BP affiliates, while also noting plans for additional U.S. expansion. [11]
Manufacturing expansion: more U.S. output, more execution risk
Operationally, First Solar has been expanding capacity aggressively:
- PV industry reporting in November described First Solar’s plan for a new U.S. module finishing line with 3.7 GW annual capacity, expected to begin operations in Q4 2026 and ramp through H1 2027. [12]
- A November report on the company’s Louisiana site said First Solar opened a $1.1B factory in Iberia Parish targeting 3.5 GW of annual nameplate capacity, with the broader footprint projected to lift U.S. manufacturing capacity to 14 GW in 2026 and 17.7 GW in 2027 once the South Carolina facility is fully operational. [13]
Expansion supports the bull case (more domestic supply, potentially premium pricing), but it also raises the stakes on ramps, yields, and demand durability.
Analyst forecasts and price targets as of Dec. 23, 2025: modest upside on average, wide disagreement underneath
Despite Tuesday’s drop, the Street’s aggregated view remains broadly constructive—just not unanimous.
- Investing.com’s consensus page shows an average 12‑month price target around $274.6, with a high estimate of $335 and a low estimate of $150, and a consensus stance labeled “Buy.” [14]
- TipRanks shows a similar picture: $275.31 average target (about 3% above a ~$267 reference price), with the same $335 high / $150 low range and a consensus rating listed as Strong Buy based on its tracked analyst set. [15]
Recent notable analyst action
One of the headline items being recirculated in today’s coverage: Wells Fargo raised its price target to $285 from $270 and reiterated an “overweight” rating (Dec. 19). [16]
Earnings outlook: steady estimates, but watch revisions
A Zacks-related roundup published today noted that the Zacks consensus estimate for the current year sat around $14.6 and was unchanged over the past month, with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold)—a reminder that not every model is shouting “buy the dip.” [17]
Policy and regulatory risk: the “invisible hand” in solar multiples
First Solar’s valuation is intertwined with U.S. trade and energy policy—sometimes as a tailwind (domestic manufacturing preference), sometimes as a headline risk (tax-credit uncertainty, permitting slowdowns).
Two policy threads were especially loud in the broader clean-energy newsflow this week:
- The Trump administration on Monday paused leases for five offshore wind projects under construction along the U.S. East Coast, citing national security concerns. While this is wind-specific, it underscores how quickly federal actions can shift sentiment across renewables. [18]
- The IRS’ “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” provisions page states that the Residential Clean Energy Credit (Section 25D) is not allowed for expenditures made after Dec. 31, 2025, and the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (25C) similarly ends for property placed in service after Dec. 31, 2025. That’s more directly tied to residential solar economics than First Solar’s utility focus, but it can still ripple through sector narratives and capital flows. [19]
Meanwhile, management has explicitly leaned into trade friction as part of its pitch. Utility Dive reported CEO Mark Widmar saying First Solar’s domestic supply chain positions it to benefit from trade friction and that the company aims to differentiate through pricing and delivery certainty. [20]
Risks investors are re-pricing today: contract churn, litigation, and rebooking at higher prices
A big reason analysts keep circling back to backlog quality is that contract churn can whipsaw solar manufacturers—especially when policy changes alter project economics.
Utility Dive reported that a BP subsidiary terminated a 6.6 GW supply agreement, and that First Solar booked $61 million in revenue tied to the contract while seeking additional damages (reported as $324 million in that coverage). [21]
In an earnings-call transcript, Widmar indicated the company planned to be “patient” rebooking the terminated volume and cited pricing on a referenced deal that, including adders, landed a little north of $0.36 per watt (around $0.365). He also referenced Section 232 tariff-related uncertainty as a factor that could affect negotiations and timing. [22]
That’s the bull/bear fulcrum in one snapshot:
- Bull case: churn becomes an opportunity to reprice supply higher into a constrained domestic market.
- Bear case: churn signals developer stress and policy-driven hesitation that spreads across the pipeline.
A quick note on today’s “trader” signals: options activity and volatility
Today’s coverage also included a heavy “trader lens.” A Benzinga options piece described notable large-trader activity in FSLR options and characterized positioning across a wide strike range. [23]
Whether you treat that as signal or noise, it’s consistent with what the price action already screams: FSLR is a high-volatility large-cap, and December is not a month for sleepy tapes.
Bottom line for Dec. 23: the story didn’t break—expectations just moved
First Solar stock’s Dec. 23 drop looks less like “new fundamental damage” and more like the market rebalancing after a fast run to new highs—while simultaneously digesting macro surprises and policy headlines.
The next big debate for investors is whether the Alphabet–Intersect narrative translates into real, incremental module demand (or simply reinforces confidence in existing orders), and whether First Solar can keep converting its backlog into high-margin deliveries while scaling U.S. capacity on schedule.
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. markets.financialcontent.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.sahmcapital.com, 6. www.bea.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.pv-magazine.com, 13. renewablesnow.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. finviz.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.irs.gov, 20. www.utilitydive.com, 21. www.utilitydive.com, 22. www.stockinsights.ai, 23. www.benzinga.com
