New York, March 1, 2026, 13:23 (EST) — The market is closed.
- Flutter’s U.S.-listed shares tumbled almost 14% by Friday’s close, as the company offered a more cautious outlook for 2026.
- Management pointed to softer U.S. customer engagement and signaled the company will need to spend more—prediction markets among the areas singled out.
- The next big event lands March 4, when CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Rob Coldrake take the stage at Morgan Stanley’s TMT conference.
Flutter Entertainment plc tumbled Friday, wrapping up a tough post-earnings day for the FanDuel parent. Shares in New York finished at $106.14, a drop of 13.8%. In London, the stock closed at 7,712p, losing around 15%.
The weekend break hasn’t shifted the core problem—Flutter faces pressure to recalibrate expectations for its U.S. business, right as investors are looking for more consistent growth from online betting. FanDuel holds the top spot in the market, so when Flutter updates its outlook, that usually sets the pace for the entire sector.
Flutter’s numbers underline a U.S. slowdown and the price tag for rolling out fresh offerings. Management set 2026 revenue guidance at $18.4 billion with adjusted EBITDA pegged at $2.97 billion, both at the midpoint. That adjusted EBITDA figure—widely used as a “core profit” metric that excludes certain costs—came alongside a warning: U.S. trading cooled off, with unusually strong sportsbook margins late in the NFL season denting customer engagement. The company also blamed “less compelling” player storylines. FanDuel captured a 41% share of U.S. sportsbook gross gaming revenue in the fourth quarter, according to Flutter, which expects about 22% of its full-year revenue and around 13% of its adjusted EBITDA to land in the first quarter. GlobeNewswire
Chief Executive Peter Jackson blamed part of the shortfall on missteps in execution, not just the sports calendar. “We just didn’t execute our generosity strategy as well as we should have done,” he told Reuters—pointing to the company’s handling of promotions and bonuses meant to retain bettors. Flutter plans to roll out a loyalty program in the second quarter and will increase investment in its FanDuel Predicts platform, which debuted with derivatives marketplace CME Group. Reuters
The jargon’s key here. A “hold”—that’s the sportsbook’s margin, the cut it pockets after paying out winners. When that figure climbs, customers burn through cash quicker and often step back. Flutter flagged that the margin surge late in the season dragged on into early 2026, hitting engagement.
Selling pressure hit as traders weigh if prediction markets are eating into the turf of U.S. sportsbooks. The Financial Times pointed to Kalshi and Polymarket as gaining ground. Flutter’s revenue forecast for 2026 landed below analyst targets, and earlier this month, DraftKings disappointed, missing its own expectations.
The risk cuts clear: should U.S. activity remain sluggish into spring, the stock could keep sliding—Flutter’s flagged ramp-up in spending won’t help. Their guidance factors in losses from fresh state launches, plus a larger drag from prediction-market investment. That hit might land near the upper edge of the earlier $200 million-$300 million estimate, according to the company.
At this point, investors want evidence that the promotional reset is taking hold, but not at the expense of margin. They’ll be watching closely for any indication of softer customer churn, or if handle — the sum of all wagers — steadies outside the NFL calendar. Those details will count.
March 4 is circled as the next big date: Jackson and CFO Rob Coldrake are slated for a fireside chat at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference.
Monday opens with traders eyeing new analyst notes, monitoring the first round of volume as markets reopen, and scanning for updates tied to loyalty programs, promo activity, and prediction-market outlays. March 4 looms on the calendar.
