Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) Share Price Near 52‑Week High as Green Pivot Meets Iron Ore Cycles

Updated: 11 December 2025 – Information only, not financial advice.

Fortescue share price today: FMG trades around record levels

Fortescue Ltd (Fortescue, ASX: FMG) is finishing 2025 with its share price pressing against 52‑week highs on the ASX.

According to live market data, Fortescue is trading around A$22.70–A$22.80 per share today, with a day range of roughly A$22.65 to A$23.38 and a 52‑week range of A$13.18 to A$23.38 – meaning the stock is effectively hovering at the top of its one‑year trading band. ^[1]

Data from technical service StockInvest shows Fortescue closed at A$22.66 on 10 December 2025, giving the iron ore and energy group a market capitalisation of about A$69.7 billion. ^[2]

One 2026‑focused outlook notes that Fortescue’s share price has climbed more than 25% in 2025, attributing the move to strong iron ore demand and the company’s aggressive sustainability push. ^[3]

So the setup going into 2026 is unusual: a cyclical miner trading close to its highs at the same time analysts are increasingly focused on decarbonisation spending, cancelled hydrogen projects, and a growing green‑metal experiment.

Operations: record shipments, lower costs and a solid balance sheet

Fortescue’s latest full‑year numbers give some fundamental backbone to the strong share price.

A July 2025 briefing from Capital Brief summarised the FY25 result as follows: ^[4]

Record iron ore shipments:
- FY25 shipments reached 198.4 million tonnes, up 4% year‑on‑year, helped by a record 55.2 million tonnes in the June quarter.
Costs moving lower again:
- Hematite C1 cash costs averaged US$17.99 per wet metric tonne for FY25, with US$16.29/wmt in the June quarter – the first annual cost decline since FY20.
Iron Bridge ramp‑up:
- Iron Bridge magnetite shipments totalled 7.1 million tonnes in FY25, with nameplate capacity of 22 Mtpa targeted for FY28.
Balance sheet and capex:
- FY25 capex came in at US$3.9 billion, Fortescue reported US$4.3 billion in cash and US$1.1 billion in net debt at 30 June 2025.

For FY26, Fortescue is guiding to 195–205 million tonnes of total shipments, including 10–12 million tonnes from Iron Bridge, and hematite C1 cash costs of US$17.50–US$18.50/wmt. It also expects energy capex of about US$300 million and net operating energy expenditure of around US$400 million. ^[5]

In plain English: the core iron‑ore engine is still pumping out a lot of tonnage at low costs, and the balance sheet is in decent shape despite heavy investment.

From pure iron ore miner to “technology, energy and metals” group

Fortescue is trying very hard to not just be “an iron ore stock” anymore. Management has been re‑branding the company as a technology, energy and metals group focused on “Real Zero” emissions by 2030, backed by a web of partnerships and projects across green hydrogen, green metals and renewables. ^[6]

Doubling down on decarbonisation capex

An August 2025 report from Argus Media highlights how ambitious – and costly – that shift has become. ^[7]

Fortescue plans to more than double decarbonisation investment in the July 2025–June 2026 financial year to US$900 million–US$1.2 billion, up from US$405 million in 2024–25.
The spending forms part of a broader plan to invest US$6.2 billion on reaching “real zero” emissions between 2023‑24 and 2028‑29.
Money is being redirected towards mine vehicle electrification and renewable energy, including:
- A 190 MW solar farm at Cloudbreak mine (around 30% complete at the time of the report), expected to cut diesel use by 125 million litres per year.
- A proposed 2.1 GW wind farm and 220 kV transmission line, which could cut scope 1 and 2 emissions by 1.5 million tonnes of CO₂e per year, if sanctioned.

Interestingly, Argus notes that mine sustaining capex is trending down, while decarbonisation capex stays elevated, meaning the “green” spend is becoming central to the capital allocation story, not a side quest. ^[8]

Climate Transition Plan and global alliances

In September 2025, Executive Chairman Andrew Forrest launched the third iteration of Fortescue’s Climate Transition Plan at Climate Week NYC. The plan: ^[9]

Re‑states Fortescue’s Real Zero target and aligns it with frameworks such as the UN Race to Zero coalition and the Transition Plan Taskforce.
Stresses that capital allocation is being actively tied to the transition plan and that the plan is being treated as “core business strategy,” not CSR fluff.
Has been independently reviewed by Professor Benjamin Caldecott and other climate and finance experts, who see it as a template for how heavy industry can manage transition risk and opportunity.

Complementing that, a 25 September 2025 corporate update shows Fortescue building a global decarbonisation alliance network: ^[10]

Deals with BYD (batteries and EV tech), LONGi (solar), XCMG (mining equipment) and Envision Energy (wind and storage).
Acquisition of Spanish renewable technology company Nabrawind to scale tall wind‑tower technology.
A global R&D ecosystem stretching from the Pilbara to Colorado, Oxford and Spain, under the Fortescue Zero banner.

The message to investors: Fortescue wants to be seen as a serious, vertically integrated green‑industry player, not just an iron ore exporter that bought a couple of wind turbines.

Green Iron Metal Project: a pilot for low‑carbon steel

One flagship example is the Green Iron Metal Project in the Pilbara, based at Fortescue’s Green Energy Hub at Christmas Creek. ^[11]

Key facts from the company:

Capacity: more than 1,500 tonnes per year of “green iron metal”.
Capex: about US$50 million.
First production: targeted for 2025.
Uses green hydrogen and an electric smelting furnace (ESF) to produce sponge iron and then high‑purity green iron metal.
Initially partly powered by over 160,000 solar panels, with a goal of running entirely on renewable energy by 2030.
Sits within a broader plan to eventually supply over 100 Mt of green iron to China each year, which Fortescue says could help eliminate more than 200 Mt of CO₂ annually across the steel value chain.

For the share price, this matters less as a near‑term profit engine and more as a strategic option: if green iron becomes viable at scale, Fortescue is trying to be first in line.

Hydrogen rethink: cancelled projects and a more disciplined tone

Not all green projects are moving forward.

In July 2025, Fortescue told the market it would not proceed with its Arizona green hydrogen project or the PEM50 project in Gladstone, despite earlier groundbreaking work. Both had been under review amid slow global hydrogen market development and after Fortescue had already scaled back hydrogen ambitions in 2024. ^[12]

A few details from that same update: ^[13]

Fortescue expects a pre‑tax write‑down of about US$150 million tied to PEM50, associated electrolysers and Arizona project engineering.
FY26 guidance still assumes record or near‑record shipments, with management flagging confidence in new production highs.

So the hydrogen story is being narrowed to more targeted, commercially grounded projects (like the Green Metal Project), rather than an “everywhere all at once” footprint.

Modern slavery and ESG: a fresh statement in December 2025

Closer to today’s date, Fortescue has also been talking up governance and human‑rights credentials.

On 10 December 2025, the company released its FY25 Modern Slavery Statement, its eighth such statement and the sixth required under Australia’s Modern Slavery Act 2018. The document is also lodged on behalf of Fortescue Zero Limited in the UK under that jurisdiction’s modern slavery regime. ^[14]

The ASX release highlights several actions in FY25, including: ^[15]

A new Sustainable Supply Chain Standard and tougher due‑diligence procedures.
Ongoing worker welfare assessments with suppliers across multiple facilities.
Expanded ethical recruitment training, including updated talent‑acquisition guidelines and new worker pre‑engagement checks.
Additional training on human rights, traceability and modern slavery risks.

Andrew Forrest’s commentary in the statement frames modern slavery as a systemic global risk and argues that the transition to green energy cannot come at the expense of human rights.

For ESG‑minded investors, this type of disclosure – alongside climate transition planning – is increasingly baked into risk assessments and portfolio screens.

What the latest analyst forecasts say about Fortescue stock

Despite the strong 2025 share‑price performance, much of the sell‑side and model‑driven valuation work is more cautious.

Valuation models: fair value below today’s price

A December 2025 narrative by Simply Wall St, focused on Fortescue’s BYD battery rollout and green investments, projects: ^[16]

Revenue around US$14.4 billion and earnings around US$2.4 billion by 2028, implying a 2.4% annual revenue decline and about US$1.0 billion drop in earnings versus roughly US$3.4 billion today.
A fair value estimate of about A$18.99 per share, suggesting roughly 13% downside from current market levels at the time of the analysis.

The same platform notes that community fair‑value estimates from different investors cluster roughly between A$19 and A$27 per share, underscoring how widely opinions diverge. ^[17]

Fintel’s compilation of analyst price targets pegs Fortescue’s average 12‑month target around A$19.3 per share, with forecasts spanning A$16.66 to A$22.58. ^[18]

Another summary of Australian broker views, cited in a Motley Fool Australia article comparing Fortescue with South32, references an average target of about A$19.02 and notes that some analysts see the stock falling to around A$16.20. ^[19]

Separately, a Webull/Simply Wall St valuation snapshot lists a consensus target near A$17.50, with a bullish case around A$20.11 and a bearish one near A$15.45. ^[20]

When you put all of those together, the broad pattern is pretty clear:

Most model‑based fair‑value and broker targets currently sit below the live share price.

That doesn’t mean the market is wrong; it just suggests that investors today are paying a premium versus what many DCFs and broker spreadsheets regard as “base case” value.

Short‑term technical outlook: trend up, rating “Hold/Accumulate”

On the technical side, StockInvest’s daily update on 10 December 2025 describes Fortescue as: ^[21]

Closing at A$22.66, up 0.94% on the day.
Up about 5.4% over the prior two weeks, having risen in six of the last ten trading days.
Trading in the upper part of a “wide and strong rising trend” in the short term.

Their system:

Flags buy signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages, and from a three‑month MACD indicator.
Sees support levels around A$20.44 and A$20.36, with a deeper level around A$18.72.
Forecasts, probabilistically, that the stock could rise about 16% over the next three months, with a 90% probability of trading between roughly A$24.06 and A$26.64 by then.

Yet despite that bullish trend logic, the platform recently downgraded Fortescue from “Strong Buy” to “Hold/Accumulate”, citing divergences between rising prices and falling volumes as a reason for caution. ^[22]

Translation: the chart is strong, but momentum‑driven traders are being warned not to assume the ride will stay smooth.

Dividend profile: still a high‑yield ASX mining stock

For many investors, Fortescue is still primarily a dividend story.

StockInvest’s dividend history table shows: ^[23]

Sep 2025: A$0.60 per share (yield about 3.15% at the time).
Feb 2025: A$0.50 per share (yield about 3.08%).
Sep 2024: A$0.89 per share (yield ~4.4%).
Mar 2024: A$1.08 per share (yield ~4.3%).

That’s more than A$3.0 per share of dividends paid across 2023–25 combined, even before including earlier years when payouts were substantially higher.

Investing.com currently flags Fortescue as having a “high dividend yield” relative to the broader market, consistent with its reputation as a cash‑rich miner that pays out a large share of earnings. ^[24]

The tension for 2026 and beyond is obvious: how long can Fortescue keep paying hefty dividends while also pouring US$1+ billion per year into decarbonisation, funding growth projects, and riding a notoriously volatile iron ore price cycle?

Fresh research and media coverage as of December 11, 2025

Over the last month, Fortescue has been under active scrutiny from Australian research houses and financial media:

Rask Media has published several fundamental deep dives during 2025, including a “deep dive into FMG shares” and a current‑day piece asking whether Transurban (TCL) or Fortescue offers better value, focusing on valuation metrics like earnings multiples, free‑cash‑flow yield and risk profiles. ^[25]
Another Rask article from November looks specifically at whether Fortescue shares are “good value” in 2025, emphasising the importance of understanding Fortescue’s cost base, capital intensity and the iron ore price assumptions embedded in any valuation. ^[26]
Multiple Motley Fool Australia pieces in November compare Fortescue with rivals such as Rio Tinto, Woodside and South32, typically framing Fortescue as a higher‑yield, higher‑risk option with more leverage to both iron ore prices and decarbonisation execution. ^[27]
Another Fool article from September notes that Fortescue shares traded “in the green” amid big decarbonisation news, highlighting how the market has often rewarded the company’s climate announcements rather than punishing the near‑term cost. ^[28]

The broad tone across these sources is nuanced: Fortescue is often praised for its low‑cost iron ore business and big dividends, but there is recurring concern that heavy green capex and project risk could squeeze free cash flow if iron ore prices soften.

Key drivers and risks for Fortescue going into 2026

You don’t need a PhD in mining finance to see the big moving parts here. The Fortescue 2026 story is basically a three‑way tug‑of‑war:

Iron ore price and Chinese steel demand
- High prices + low C1 costs = strong margins and fat dividends.
- A downturn in Chinese construction or steel output would quickly bleed into earnings, just as decarbonisation spending is peaking.
Decarbonisation execution vs cost blowouts
- Projects like the Green Iron Metal plant, the Cloudbreak solar farm, and broader fleet electrification are strategically attractive – they could protect Fortescue’s cost base and improve its social licence. ^[29]
- But they are also capital‑intensive. If returns lag or timelines slip, shareholders may feel they swapped near‑term dividends for distant promises.
Portfolio of green projects after hydrogen retrenchment
- The decision to cancel Arizona and PEM50 shows Fortescue can kill pet projects when economics don’t stack up, which is arguably a good sign of discipline. ^[30]
- The flip side is that investors have to decide which projects are real value generators (green iron, some renewables) and which are more speculative.

Layered on top are ESG and regulatory considerations – such as the fresh modern slavery statement and climate transition plan – which shape how both institutional investors and lenders view risk. ^[31]

Fortescue stock outlook: how FMG fits into an ASX portfolio today

So where does that leave Fortescue Ltd stock as of 11 December 2025?

Price action: FMG is trading near its 52‑week high after a more than 25% run in 2025. ^[32]
Fundamentals: record shipments, falling unit costs and a strong balance sheet underpin the current earnings base. ^[33]
Strategy: the company is going all‑in on decarbonisation and green metals, with billions of dollars of committed or planned capex, and a sophisticated transition plan reviewed by external experts. ^[34]
Valuation: most published analyst and model‑driven price targets cluster below today’s share price, suggesting the market is paying a premium for that strategy and for current iron‑ore strength. ^[35]
Technical and dividends: the trend remains upwards, but some technical services have already dialled FMG back to “Hold/Accumulate”, and the sustainability of high dividends will hinge on both iron ore prices and capex discipline. ^[36]

For income‑oriented investors, Fortescue still looks like a high‑yield, high‑beta way to express a view on iron ore and China – with a growing overlay of climate and technology risk/reward.

For ESG‑focused investors, Fortescue is a kind of paradoxical test case: a heavy emitter aggressively trying to decarbonise itself, while also expanding into green hydrogen, green iron and large‑scale renewables. Whether that’s visionary, risky, or both is exactly what the 2026 share‑price debate will be about.

Either way, the stock now sits at the crossroads of resources and the energy transition, which is precisely where markets like to generate strong opinions.