Sydney, February 1, 2026, 17:12 AEDT — The market has closed.
- On Friday, Fortescue (FMG.AX) finished down 2.7%, closing at A$21.00.
- China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.3 in January, dipping back into contraction territory.
- Traders have their eyes on China’s private PMI on Feb. 2, the RBA decision set for Feb. 3, and Fortescue’s half-year results due Feb. 25.
Fortescue shares kicked off the week under pressure as fresh data over the weekend showed a dip in China’s factory output. The miner’s stock ended Friday down 2.7%, closing at A$21.00 on the Australian Securities Exchange.
This matters because Fortescue’s earnings remain linked to iron ore, which in turn hinges on Chinese steel demand. A soft China report could weigh on the sector ahead of Monday’s first trade prints.
The coming sessions pack in a slew of catalysts. New China surveys, Australia’s rate decision, plus fresh supply news are all hitting simultaneously—hardly a recipe for calm trading.
China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks factory activity, dropped to 49.3 in January from 50.1 in December, dipping below the crucial 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction. Huo Lihui, a statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, noted that manufacturers typically hit a “slow period” in January with weak demand. Ting Lu of Nomura added that Beijing “will have to do much more” to keep growth above 4.5%. Reuters
Still, the calendar may skew the data. Analysts at Mizuho Securities pointed out that this year’s late Lunar New Year might have shifted activity earlier. A Reuters poll from earlier this week forecast the official PMI at 50.0, with China’s private-sector RatingDog PMI set for release on Feb. 2.
Benchmark iron ore futures (62% Fe CFR China) closed Friday at $105.62 a tonne, inching down slightly on the day and slipping roughly 0.7% from last week. As the primary steelmaking feedstock, iron ore remains crucial for Australia’s major exporters.
Supply shifts are underway. Baowu Resources boosted its stake to 51%, taking control of the Simandou blocks 1 and 2 operator in Guinea, Reuters reported Friday. This signals fresh tonnes on the horizon, though the exact timeline remains unclear. Nearby, Rio Tinto retains involvement through a separate venture in adjacent blocks.
Fortescue is set to report its FY26 half-year results on Feb. 25, per its calendar. Investors will zero in on shipments, costs, and spending—particularly how aggressively the company is advancing in energy and green tech alongside its core iron ore business.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on Feb. 2–3. A big shift in the Australian dollar could impact miners’ earnings in local currency, since iron ore trades in U.S. dollars.
On the flip side, if China’s demand slump worsens and iron ore prices continue to slide, the sector could see a swift re-rating. Lunar New Year seasonal swings add volatility, and Beijing’s policy announcements can shift the market faster than the numbers themselves.
