New York, Jan 22, 2026, 19:38 EST — After-hours
- FCX slipped as investors balanced a profit beat with concerns over a sales profile for 2026 that’s heavily back-loaded due to Grasberg’s restart
- Results got a boost from rising copper and gold prices, though timing of volume and mine recovery continue to be the key variables
- Traders eye copper prices closely as the company targets April for restart milestones
Shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc fell 2.9%, closing Thursday at $58.85, drifting further from their 52-week peak of $62.13. (Freeport-McMoRan Investors)
The decline followed a hectic period for copper-linked stocks, as investors wrestled with two key factors: metal prices and when production kicks off. For Freeport, that schedule hinges entirely on Indonesia.
Freeport posted a stronger-than-expected Q4 profit, but attention remained fixed on its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The site, the world’s largest gold mine and second-largest copper mine, suffered a deadly mud rush in September that claimed seven lives. “The Grasberg incident was humbling, but our team has risen to the challenge and is dedicated to safely and sustainably restoring our operations,” CEO Kathleen Quirk said during a conference call. The company aims to restore roughly 85% of Grasberg’s output by the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, rising demand driven by AI and defense sectors is set to boost global copper consumption by 50% by 2040. (Reuters)
Freeport reported fourth-quarter net income attributable to common stockholders of $406 million, or 28 cents per share. Adjusted net income came in at $688 million, or 47 cents a share. Copper prices realized averaged $5.33 per pound, while gold fetched $4,078 an ounce. The company sold 709 million pounds of copper, producing 640 million pounds during the period. Looking ahead, Freeport projects 2026 copper sales around 3.4 billion pounds, with roughly 60% expected in the second half. It anticipates unit net cash costs — copper costs after by-product credits — to average $1.75 per pound. Operating cash flow for 2026 is forecast at about $8 billion using assumed prices, rising to approximately $11 billion at recent price levels. (SEC)
Traders keep fixating on that “second-half” weighting. It tends to make early-quarter numbers look weak and leaves precious little margin for delays if copper prices fail to deliver.
Copper took a step back on Thursday, with the LME cash settlement dropping to $12,632 a metric ton from $12,898 the day before, according to Westmetall data. (Westmetall)
Southern Copper Corp shares dipped 0.6% on Thursday. (StockAnalysis)
Freeport underperformed despite gains across Wall Street, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.55% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.60%. FCX saw roughly 25.4 million shares trade hands, well above its 50-day average of 14.3 million, according to MarketWatch data. (MarketWatch)
The clear risk is execution underground. A delay in the Grasberg restart or a steeper drop in copper prices would quickly squeeze cash flow for a miner whose valuation hinges on the metal.
Freeport’s investor slide deck reveals a restart of Grasberg Block Cave set for April, aiming to ramp up to 100,000 tonnes per day by the latter half of 2026. Traders on Friday will watch copper futures closely, seeking signs that FCX can steady itself before that restart. (SEC)
