London, Jan 31, 2026, 08:42 GMT — Market closed
Fresnillo PLC shares dropped 5.1% on Friday to 3,702 pence, marking their second consecutive steep decline. The stock has lost roughly 10% over the past two sessions, with the next key moment due when the UK market opens Monday.
Spot silver plunged 27.7% to $83.99 an ounce, with spot gold dropping 9.5% to $4,883.62 after U.S. President Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Despite the sharp declines, gold is still on track for its strongest month since 1980, and silver for its best since 1979. “The market was due for a correction,” said Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered. Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP SA described January as “the most volatile month in precious metals history.” Reuters
For silver-focused miners such as Fresnillo, moves like that hit their stock directly. Their shares often act like leveraged bets on metal prices during volatile periods, and Friday’s sell-off gave investors hardly any breathing room.
The company had already given the market something else to chew on. Fresnillo trimmed its 2026 silver production forecast to 42 million-46.5 million ounces from 45 million-51 million. It also lowered its gold target to 500,000-550,000 ounces, down from 515,000-565,000. The downgrade reflects mine-plan phasing issues, weaker grades, and a delayed shaft connection. For 2025, it reported silver output of 48.7 million ounces and gold production of 600,287 ounces.
Morgan Stanley held firm on its ‘underweight’ rating for the stock, a clear signal it expects it to lag. The price target stays at 2,210 pence. The bank pointed to “the challenging nature of Fresnillo’s mines and the near-term deterioration in grades,” highlighting a 5%-9% downside risk to 2026 volume forecasts. That shortfall could weigh on EBITDA, their key operating profit metric. They also pegged the spot 2026 free-cash-flow yield—cash after capital expenditures relative to market value—at roughly 7%, cautioning it’s likely to decline. Investing.com UK
Yet the greater danger might lie beyond the mine gate. Should the dollar hold strong and metals continue to plunge, miners risk another wave of de-rating. On the flip side, a silver rebound could trigger swift short-covering, pushing prices back up just as fast.
As the new week unfolds, investors will be tracking if bullion can hold its ground and whether risk appetite calms after Friday’s rollercoaster. For Fresnillo, further selling pressure in precious metals could prove just as crucial as the upcoming earnings report.
Fresnillo is set to release its next earnings report on March 3. Investors will be watching closely for updates on costs, cash flow, and whether the company can meet its revised production targets amid a volatile metals market.
