London, Jan 30, 2026, 09:15 GMT — Regular session underway.
- Fresnillo shares dropped roughly 7% in early trading, dragged down by a pullback in precious metals from their record peaks
- Investors continue to absorb the miner’s lowered silver and gold production targets for 2026
- Attention shifts to bullion volatility ahead of Fresnillo’s full-year earnings in early March
Fresnillo PLC shares dropped on Friday, deepening the steep selloff in the London-listed gold and silver miner. The decline came as bullion prices weakened and investors zeroed in on the company’s lowered output targets for 2026.
The stock slipped 7.2% to 3,618 pence by 0916 GMT, per MarketScreener data. (MarketScreener)
This shift is significant as Fresnillo stands out as a high-beta proxy for gold and silver in London, especially after its recent rally. When precious metal prices fluctuate and the miner cuts output forecasts, investors react fast, making the stock action quite volatile.
Fresnillo slipped again on Friday following Thursday’s losses. It started the day at 3,756 pence and dipped to 3,612 pence, down from Thursday’s close of 3,900 pence, according to Investing.
Gold and silver came under pressure again. Spot gold dropped 4.2% to $5,172.80 an ounce by 0716 GMT, after hitting a record $5,594.82 on Thursday, Reuters reported. Silver followed suit, slipping 6.1% to $109.03, down from its previous peak of $121.64 just one day earlier. “A potentially less dovish Fed Chairman pick … and gold giving way to overbought conditions have contributed to the decline,” said Tim Waterer, chief trade analyst at KCM. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, added that speculation around Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair also weighed on gold. (Reuters)
Fresnillo has adjusted its outlook once again. In its Q4 production report released Wednesday, the company lowered its 2026 attributable silver forecast to between 42 million and 46.5 million ounces, down from the previous range of 45 million to 51 million. Its gold guidance for 2026 was also trimmed, now expected at 500,000 to 550,000 ounces versus 515,000 to 565,000 earlier. The revisions stem from changes to the mine plan at its flagship Fresnillo mine, which are expected to reduce both ore throughput and grade—the metal content of the rock. Delays at Saucito, including the Jarillas shaft connection being pushed into 2026, along with ground conditions, contributed to the update. (Research Tree)
Production showed mixed signals even before the new targets came into play. Fresnillo reported fourth-quarter attributable silver output of 12.2 million ounces, marking an 8% drop from last year. Meanwhile, fourth-quarter attributable gold production fell sharply, down 34% year-on-year to 135,192 ounces. Still, the full-year attributable gold production hit 600,287 ounces, surpassing its guidance range. CEO Octavio Alvídrez described the year as “another year of solid operational performance,” emphasizing the group’s focus on “safety, operational discipline and efficiency.” (London South East)
Some analysts are focusing on the downside. Morgan Stanley noted that quarterly volumes came in 5% to 9% below consensus, highlighting the “challenging nature” of the asset base and warning of “near-term deterioration in grades” at Saucito and Fresnillo. The bank maintained its underweight rating and a 2,210 pence price target, per Investing.
There’s a catch. Fresnillo’s revenue depends heavily on bullion, and the stock has typically surged when gold and silver bounce back. If metal prices level off, the stock might cool down — though that’s a big “if” at this point.
The main risk for investors is that the metal’s decline could deepen into a more serious correction right as Fresnillo shifts to lower-grade ores and updates its mine plans. Another downside is potential operational delays at the Fresnillo mine and Saucito, as the company flagged—these could hit production and push costs higher simultaneously.
Fresnillo will release its full-year results on March 3. Investors will be keen to see updated figures on costs and capital expenditure, along with a breakdown of how the revised 2026 mine plan will impact quarterly production volumes. (Ii)
