London, Jan 29, 2026, 08:49 GMT — Regular session
- Fresnillo shares climb in early London trading following an updated production forecast
- The miner cut its 2026 silver and gold forecasts, pointing to grade declines and mine scheduling.
- The bullion rally has boosted sentiment among precious-metal stocks
Fresnillo shares climbed 4.1%, hitting 4,284 pence by 0845 GMT after closing Wednesday at 4,116 pence. The stock peaked at 4,312 pence during the session. 1
Gold and silver miners have regained attention as sharp swings in bullion prices can swiftly impact revenue, even though costs usually adjust more slowly. For investors, guidance becomes crucial during these rapid price changes.
Fresnillo on Wednesday lowered its 2026 silver guidance to 42–46.5 million ounces, down from 45–51 million. Gold estimates also slipped to 500,000–550,000 ounces from 515,000–565,000. In Q4, the company reported 12.2 million ounces of attributable silver and 135,192 ounces of gold. Full-year gold production hit 600,287 ounces, surpassing its target, while total silver output (including Silverstream) came in at 48.7 million ounces, matching forecasts. CEO Octavio Alvídrez emphasized the group’s commitment to “operational discipline and efficiency” aimed at “maximise value” amid favorable prices. 2
Morgan Stanley flagged the update, saying it “underscores the challenging nature of Fresnillo’s mines” and highlighted a “5-9% downside risk” to 2026 volume forecasts and EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation. The bank maintained its “underweight” rating and stuck with a 2,210 pence target price after the quarter fell short of consensus estimates, per Investing.com. 3
Shares of Hochschild Mining, listed in London, climbed 1.2% early on as investors showed renewed appetite for precious metals. 4
Spot gold surged 2.7% to $5,546 an ounce by 0752 GMT, after briefly hitting a record $5,594, Reuters reported. Spot silver also climbed to an all-time peak of $120.45. “Gold prices are (rising on) safe-haven demand,” said ANZ analyst Soni Kumari. 5
That guidance cut serves as a reminder: mine sequencing and grades can cause output to fluctuate sharply, even when prices are solid. Any new disruptions at major sites—or a steep drop in bullion—could put the shares at risk.
Investors are gearing up for Fresnillo’s FY2025 preliminary results due March 3, hoping for clarity on costs, capital expenditure, and cash returns. Any tweaks to the 2026 outlook will likely influence sentiment heading into next week. 6
