London’s blue‑chip index set another intraday high today after softer UK labour‑market data strengthened the case for a pre‑Christmas interest‑rate cut. Vodafone led the rally with its first dividend increase since 2018. 1
At a glance — 11 November 2025
- FTSE 100 set a new intraday record at 9,892.04, extending yesterday’s record close. Vodafone topped the leaderboard after upgrading guidance and pledging a higher payout. 1
- UK unemployment rose to 5.0% (Jul–Sep), the highest since 2021; regular pay growth eased to 4.6% (ex‑bonus) and total pay to 4.8%. Vacancies were broadly flat at 723,000. 2
- Markets now price roughly a three‑quarters chance of a Bank of England rate cut in December, while sterling slipped about 0.3% against the dollar. 3
- A strong US tech session overnight (Nvidia +5.8%, Alphabet +4%) added risk appetite to the European open. 4
Vodafone’s dividend revival powers the FTSE
Vodafone shares jumped after the group said it now expects full‑year profit and cash flow at the upper end of guidance, and introduced a progressive dividend policy that includes a 2.5% increase this year — its first dividend rise since 2018. The update, including a return to growth in Germany and continued UK momentum, made Vodafone the morning’s standout riser on the FTSE 100. 5
Housebuilders Berkeley Group and Persimmon gained around 2%, reflecting hopes that lower mortgage rates will follow any Bank Rate cut. Advertising group WPP also rallied as the index pushed deeper into record territory. 1
UK jobs: softer data strengthens the case for a cut
Fresh figures from the Office for National Statistics show the unemployment rate rising to 5.0% in the three months to September, while regular pay growth cooled to 4.6% and total pay to 4.8%. Payrolled employees fell by 117,000 year‑on‑year (‑32,000 month‑on‑month), suggesting slack is building. Vacancies were broadly unchanged at 723,000. Taken together, the indicators point to a labour market that is losing momentum. 2
Markets responded by increasing bets on a December rate cut, with implied probabilities hovering around three‑quarters. That, in turn, nudged sterling lower and supported UK equities leveraged to domestic borrowing costs. 3
Politics & policy: Will Rachel Reeves get a “Christmas” rate cut?
With the Autumn Budget set for 26 November, the timing of any Bank of England move has become politically resonant. Commentators have framed a potential pre‑Christmas cut as a welcome boost for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, given the cooling wage pressures and rising joblessness outlined today. The MPC narrowly kept Bank Rate at 4% by 5–4 last week; its next decision is due on 18 December. 3
Global backdrop: Wall Street tech tailwind
Overnight, US equities rebounded, led by mega‑cap tech: the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% and the Nasdaq by 2.2%, with Nvidia up 5.8% and Alphabet up 4%. That tone helped Europe open firmer before UK domestic data took the baton. 4
Why it matters for investors
- Equities: Rate‑sensitive areas (housebuilders, consumer cyclicals) typically benefit when the market prices imminent easing. Today’s move reflects that dynamic. 1
- Income: Vodafone’s dividend increase and “progressive” policy are a notable shift for one of the FTSE 100’s big income names. Investors will watch execution on UK network integration and German momentum. 5
- FX & gilts: Softer labour data and dovish expectations weigh on GBP and support gilts, trends that could persist if upcoming data confirm easing wage pressures. 3
Key data and dates to watch
- ONS labour market: Next release 16 December 2025, providing a final read‑through before the BoE’s year‑end decision. 2
- Autumn Budget: 26 November 2025 — fiscal choices will shape the BoE’s reaction function into year‑end. 1
- Bank of England: MPC decision 18 December 2025 — markets currently lean toward a 25bp cut if data trend continues. 3
Bottom line
A cooling labour market and Vodafone’s dividend reboot combined to extend the FTSE 100’s record run today. With unemployment at 5.0%, wage growth easing and market odds favouring a December rate cut, UK assets are trading on the prospect that monetary policy will finally start to loosen into year‑end — just as Rachel Reeves unveils her Autumn Budget. 2
Sources: Interactive Investor; Evening Standard live markets; ONS labour‑market bulletin; The Guardian business live; Financial Times coverage of Vodafone’s dividend policy. 4
Published: 11 November 2025
