London’s blue‑chip index set another intraday high today after softer UK labour‑market data strengthened the case for a pre‑Christmas interest‑rate cut. Vodafone led the rally with its first dividend increase since 2018.
At a glance — 11 November 2025
- FTSE 100 set a new intraday record at 9,892.04, extending yesterday’s record close. Vodafone topped the leaderboard after upgrading guidance and pledging a higher payout.
- UK unemployment rose to 5.0% (Jul–Sep), the highest since 2021; regular pay growth eased to 4.6% (ex‑bonus) and total pay to 4.8%. Vacancies were broadly flat at 723,000.
- Markets now price roughly a three‑quarters chance of a Bank of England rate cut in December, while sterling slipped about 0.3% against the dollar.
- A strong US tech session overnight (Nvidia +5.8%, Alphabet +4%) added risk appetite to the European open.
Vodafone’s dividend revival powers the FTSE
Vodafone shares jumped after the group said it now expects full‑year profit and cash flow at the upper end of guidance, and introduced a progressive dividend policy that includes a 2.5% increase this year — its first dividend rise since 2018. The update, including a return to growth in Germany and continued UK momentum, made Vodafone the morning’s standout riser on the FTSE 100.
Housebuilders Berkeley Group and Persimmon gained around 2%, reflecting hopes that lower mortgage rates will follow any Bank Rate cut. Advertising group WPP also rallied as the index pushed deeper into record territory.
UK jobs: softer data strengthens the case for a cut
Fresh figures from the Office for National Statistics show the unemployment rate rising to 5.0% in the three months to September, while regular pay growth cooled to 4.6% and total pay to 4.8%. Payrolled employees fell by 117,000 year‑on‑year (‑32,000 month‑on‑month), suggesting slack is building. Vacancies were broadly unchanged at 723,000. Taken together, the indicators point to a labour market that is losing momentum.
Markets responded by increasing bets on a December rate cut, with implied probabilities hovering around three‑quarters. That, in turn, nudged sterling lower and supported UK equities leveraged to domestic borrowing costs.
Politics & policy: Will Rachel Reeves get a “Christmas” rate cut?
With the Autumn Budget set for 26 November, the timing of any Bank of England move has become politically resonant. Commentators have framed a potential pre‑Christmas cut as a welcome boost for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, given the cooling wage pressures and rising joblessness outlined today. The MPC narrowly kept Bank Rate at 4% by 5–4 last week; its next decision is due on 18 December.
Global backdrop: Wall Street tech tailwind
Overnight, US equities rebounded, led by mega‑cap tech: the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% and the Nasdaq by 2.2%, with Nvidia up 5.8% and Alphabet up 4%. That tone helped Europe open firmer before UK domestic data took the baton.
Why it matters for investors
- Equities: Rate‑sensitive areas (housebuilders, consumer cyclicals) typically benefit when the market prices imminent easing. Today’s move reflects that dynamic.
- Income: Vodafone’s dividend increase and “progressive” policy are a notable shift for one of the FTSE 100’s big income names. Investors will watch execution on UK network integration and German momentum. Financial Times+1
- FX & gilts: Softer labour data and dovish expectations weigh on GBP and support gilts, trends that could persist if upcoming data confirm easing wage pressures.
Key data and dates to watch
- ONS labour market: Next release 16 December 2025, providing a final read‑through before the BoE’s year‑end decision.
- Autumn Budget: 26 November 2025 — fiscal choices will shape the BoE’s reaction function into year‑end.
- Bank of England: MPC decision 18 December 2025 — markets currently lean toward a 25bp cut if data trend continues.
Bottom line
A cooling labour market and Vodafone’s dividend reboot combined to extend the FTSE 100’s record run today. With unemployment at 5.0%, wage growth easing and market odds favouring a December rate cut, UK assets are trading on the prospect that monetary policy will finally start to loosen into year‑end — just as Rachel Reeves unveils her Autumn Budget.
Sources: Interactive Investor; Evening Standard live markets; ONS labour‑market bulletin; The Guardian business live; Financial Times coverage of Vodafone’s dividend policy.
Published: 11 November 2025
