GAIL (India) Limited is back in the spotlight on 1 December 2025. The stock is hovering around ₹176 after a volatile end to November, driven by a fresh pipeline tariff order from the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), a sharp build‑up in futures open interest, and a striking split between bullish and bearish analyst views. [1]
GAIL share price today: levels, returns and valuation
As of late morning trade on 1 December 2025, GAIL (India) shares were quoted at about ₹176.2 on the NSE, only slightly above Friday’s close of ₹176.1. The intraday range has been narrow so far, roughly ₹174.8–₹177.4, on volumes of more than 64 lakh shares. [2]
The longer‑term picture is more mixed:
- 1‑month return: about −4.1%
- 1‑year return: around −11.3%
- 3‑year return: roughly +88%
- 5‑year return: roughly +139% [3]
At current levels, GAIL’s market capitalisation is close to ₹1.16 lakh crore. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of ~10.6×, compared with a sector P/E of about 17×, and carries an indicated dividend yield of just over 4%. [4]
On many screening tools, that combination – large‑cap PSU, moderate earnings multiple, high single‑digit ROCE/ROE in the mid‑teens and a 4%+ yield – puts GAIL firmly in the “value” bucket, even as short‑term technical models have turned cautious.
Derivatives action: GAIL on the “high OI” radar
The stock is also drawing significant interest in the F&O segment:
- A recent Economic Times F&O screen placed GAIL among seven derivatives names with the sharpest jump in futures open interest, showing OI around 8.8 crore shares and a day‑on‑day OI increase of roughly 1.5 crore contracts (about 21%). [5]
- On 1 December, broker Dhan’s futures dashboard shows the December GAIL futures trading near ₹176 with open interest of about 8.5 crore units, reinforcing that large positions remain outstanding in the near‑month contract. [6]
High open interest, combined with recent price volatility, points to active participation from traders – both for directional bets on the PNGRB tariff news and for hedging longer‑term holdings.
Why GAIL is in focus on 1 December 2025
1. PNGRB’s 12% tariff hike on the INGPL network
The single biggest structural news item now being priced in is PNGRB’s long‑awaited tariff order for GAIL’s Integrated Natural Gas Pipeline (INGPL) network, effective 1 January 2026.
According to PNGRB’s notification and market summaries:
- The levelised tariff has been set at ₹65.69/MMBTU (GCV basis) as an interim measure, up from ₹58.61/MMBTU, an increase of about 12%. [7]
- Moneycontrol estimates this could translate into a positive impact of roughly ₹1,200 crore for GAIL. [8]
- PNGRB has emphasised that the order balances returns for GAIL with affordability for users and that a more comprehensive true‑up will come in the next tariff review cycle from April 2028. [9]
For a company that owns and operates a major share of India’s gas transmission backbone – roughly 25,000 km of operational gas pipelines within a total authorised grid of about 33,500 km nationwide – tariff revisions on this scale matter significantly for medium‑term earnings visibility. [10]
Unsurprisingly, Moneycontrol’s “Stocks to Watch” list for 1 December flags GAIL specifically because of this tariff order. [11]
2. Short‑term trading calls
Ahead of Monday’s session, Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi included GAIL among his three stocks to buy, suggesting:
- Entry zone: around ₹174–176
- Near‑term target: around ₹185
- Stop loss: near ₹167 [12]
Such intraday and very short‑term calls underscore that, alongside long‑term investors reacting to regulation and earnings, short‑term traders are using GAIL as a relatively liquid PSU gas proxy.
3. Heavy trading and technical pressure at the end of November
On 28 November, analytics platform StockInvest downgraded GAIL to a “Sell candidate” on technical grounds after a single‑day fall of 4.2% (from ₹183.8 to ₹176.1), noting that:
- The stock had declined in 8 of the previous 10 sessions, down about 4% over that period.
- Rising volume on falling prices, plus a break of a short‑term rising trend, signalled a possible trend shift.
- Short‑ and long‑term moving averages as well as MACD were flashing negative signals. [13]
MarketsMojo, meanwhile, highlighted “exceptional volume” in GAIL on the same date and described the pattern as consolidation amid sectoral headwinds, advising investors to weigh the strong dividend yield against weaker technicals and sector weakness. [14]
All of that context forms the backdrop for today’s modest bounce around the ₹176 mark.
Q2 FY26 results: steady core, petrochem drag
GAIL’s most recent reported quarter – Q2 FY26 – gives a clearer picture of what’s happening under the hood.
According to a detailed result review by EquityRight: [15]
- Revenue from operations:
- ₹35,031 crore, up roughly 6–6.5% year‑on‑year.
- Profitability:
- PAT:₹2,217 crore, up about 18% quarter‑on‑quarter (vs ₹1,886 crore in Q1 FY26).
- PBT:₹2,823 crore, up 11% QoQ.
- Year‑on‑year, profit was lower, mainly due to weak petrochemical margins and softer LPG/hydrocarbon realisations.
- Volumes:
- Gas transmission:123.59 MMSCMD (vs 120.62 in Q1 FY26 – a slight uptick).
- Gas marketing:105.49 MMSCMD (essentially flat QoQ).
- Polymers:209 TMT (vs 177 TMT in Q1).
- Liquid hydrocarbons (LHC):223 TMT (vs 198 TMT).
- Capex in Q2: around ₹1,662 crore, mostly for pipelines and petrochemicals.
In short: core transmission and marketing volumes are steady, with some recovery in polymers and LHC, but petrochemicals remain loss‑making and drag down year‑on‑year earnings. [16]
Pipeline and LPG expansion plans
GAIL is also in the middle of a sizeable expansion of its gas and LPG infrastructure:
- The company has been authorised to double capacity on the Jamnagar–Loni LPG (JLPL) pipeline from 3.25 MMTPA to 6.5 MMTPA. Once fully ramped up, management expects this alone could add ~₹700 crore to annual revenue and roughly ₹600 crore to EBITDA. [17]
- A new Vijaipur–Bina gas pipeline (around 105 km, 3 MMSCMD capacity) is planned with an estimated capex of about ₹450 crore over three years to strengthen regional connectivity. [18]
Those projects sit on top of India’s broader gas‑infrastructure build‑out: PNGRB estimates about 25,000 km of gas pipelines already operational, with more authorised, and city gas distribution (CGD) identified as a key demand driver through 2030. [19]
Dividends and balance sheet
On the capital‑return side:
- GAIL’s trailing dividend yield is around 4–4.3%, based on recent payouts that included a ₹6.5/share dividend in early 2025 and another ₹1/share announced in August 2025. [20]
- Fundamental screeners show a P/B ratio near 1.7×, ROE around the low‑ to mid‑teens, and moderate leverage, keeping the balance sheet in relatively conservative territory compared to many peers. [21]
Taken together, Q2 FY26 paints GAIL as a stable core gas infrastructure play with cyclical petrochemical exposure and ongoing capex that should support volumes – but with profitability still vulnerable to commodity spreads.
What brokerages are saying: targets from ₹145 to ₹230
One reason GAIL is so actively debated today is the unusually wide spread in analyst price targets.
Motilal Oswal: Buy, tariff and volume as key catalysts
Brokerage Motilal Oswal remains broadly constructive on GAIL:
- A recent report (featured on Moneycontrol and Trendlyne) reiterates a “Buy” rating, with a target price in the ₹205–220 range, implying mid‑teens upside from current levels. [22]
- The house argues that after a sharp correction from its 2024 highs, GAIL is now trading close to its historical valuation averages, at roughly 1.1× one‑year forward “core” P/B, supported by robust free‑cash‑flow generation and high dividend payout. [23]
- In its Q1 and Q2 result notes, Motilal Oswal has highlighted tariff hikes and volume uplift in FY26–27 as the main levers for earnings growth once current petrochemical weakness eases. [24]
Kotak: Sell, no EPS growth and few near‑term catalysts
On the other side of the spectrum, Kotak has doubled down on a cautious stance:
- In a note published early on 1 December, Kotak cut its target price to ₹145 (from ₹150) while maintaining a “Sell” rating. [25]
- Kotak describes the INGPL tariff order as “underwhelming”, pointing out that the approved ₹65.7/MMBTU level is 2–3% below its expectation (₹67–68/MMBTU) and about 16% lower than what GAIL had sought. [26]
- The brokerage believes that with the tariff now settled, no major catalysts are visible in the near term, and that the outlook for each of GAIL’s business segments appears weak, especially with large capitalisation of assets still ahead.
- Crucially, Kotak projects no earnings‑per‑share growth between FY25 and FY28, which underpins its cautious stance despite the apparent valuation comfort. [27]
International brokerages: still positive, higher upside cases
Broker action logs compiled by MarketScreener show that global brokerages remain more upbeat overall:
- Jefferies recently raised its GAIL target to around ₹230 (from ₹210) while retaining a “Buy” rating, citing the PNGRB tariff order and GAIL’s expanding pipeline and LNG businesses as positives. [28]
- Nomura, in earlier notes, has also maintained a Buy on GAIL with targets in the low‑₹220s, signalling confidence that higher regulated tariffs and volume growth can offset petrochemical volatility over time. [29]
Consensus view: upside, but not explosive
Data aggregated by Trendlyne on 1 December shows: [30]
- Consensus price target: about ₹207
- Last traded price used in the model: ~₹176–177
- Implied upside: roughly 17–18%
- Overall rating: skewed towards “Buy”, based on 16 reports from four analysts.
That consensus masks a genuine split: domestic brokerages like Kotak are very cautious, others like Motilal Oswal (and some global houses) see attractive risk‑reward, and technical/quantitative models are, at least in the very short term, leaning negative.
Quant models and long‑term forecasts
For investors who watch algorithmic and quantitative tools, GAIL currently throws up quite different signals depending on the model.
Short‑term technicals: weak
As noted earlier, StockInvest’s AI‑driven technical analysis downgraded GAIL to a Sell candidate after the 28 November slide, highlighting: [31]
- Sell signals from both short‑ and long‑term moving averages.
- A break of a short‑term rising trendline.
- Daily volatility around 2–2.5%, but with price clustered near an important support zone around ₹176.
The site expects continued weak performance in the “next couple of days or weeks” unless a new bottom is formed.
WalletInvestor: aggressive algorithmic upside
By contrast, algorithmic service WalletInvestor – which uses purely technical pattern recognition – is bullish on multi‑year horizons:
- Current price used in the model: ₹175.4.
- 1‑year forecast: about ₹202.8.
- 5‑year forecast (to November 2030): around ₹299.7, implying a potential gain of roughly +71% over five years if the projections play out. [32]
WalletInvestor characterises GAIL as a “good long‑term (1‑year) investment” in its system, but this is purely model‑driven; it doesn’t incorporate detailed fundamental or policy analysis.
SimplyWall St: modest growth, solid dividend
Fundamental screener SimplyWall St projects:
- Earnings growth: roughly 1–2% per year over the next few years.
- Revenue growth: around 6% per year, somewhat below the broader utilities/gas sector average.
- Future ROE: trending towards about 12–13%. [33]
SimplyWall St also notes GAIL’s dividend yield around 4–4.3%, with a record of regular payouts, but flags “revenue and earnings growth” as a key risk factor – in other words, the company looks more like a steady cash‑generating utility than a high‑growth story. [34]
Structural tailwinds: India’s gas push and GAIL’s energy transition
Beyond this week’s price and targets, the bigger question is whether GAIL sits on the right side of India’s energy transition.
Growing gas demand and pipeline build‑out
Multiple studies, including the IEA’s India Gas Market Report, forecast that: [35]
- India’s natural gas consumption could rise by nearly 60% by 2030, driven by city gas distribution (transport and residential), industry, and power.
- Policy support – including PNGRB’s aggressive CGD bidding rounds and nationwide pipeline authorisations – underpins this outlook.
PNGRB itself highlights that: [36]
- India has about 21,700+ km of operational gas pipelines, another 14,000+ km under construction, and over 34,000 km authorised.
- CGD is expected to be the main growth driver, with plans for 17,000+ CNG stations and wide coverage of urban and rural areas by 2030.
As the largest gas transmission company in the country, GAIL is structurally positioned to benefit if this build‑out and demand growth materialise and if tariffs remain supportive.
Renewables and green hydrogen ambitions
GAIL is also trying to future‑proof itself:
- The company’s sustainability disclosures and external research note plans to build around 3 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, including solar and wind, with several hundred megawatts already commissioned. [37]
- GAIL is piloting green hydrogen projects and has spoken of a goal where around 10% of its portfolio could be hydrogen plus renewables by 2030, along with longer‑term net‑zero aspirations. [38]
In theory, that mix – regulated mid‑stream gas, CGD exposure, LNG trading, petrochemicals and a growing alternate‑energy portfolio – could give GAIL a diversified earnings base as India’s energy mix gradually de‑carbonises.
Key risks to watch
Balanced against those tailwinds are some important risks:
- Petrochemical margin volatility: Q2 FY26 again showed that weak petrochemical spreads can wipe out much of the benefit from steady gas volumes, pulling down consolidated returns. [39]
- Regulatory risk: While the latest PNGRB tariff order is broadly positive, Kotak’s reaction demonstrates that even slightly lower‑than‑expected tariffs can change the earnings math. The next major review in 2028 will be crucial. [40]
- Execution and capex: GAIL is committing substantial capex to pipelines and LPG infrastructure; delays or cost overruns – or weaker‑than‑expected volume pick‑up – would drag on returns. [41]
- Commodity and LNG price cycles: As a major gas marketer and LNG player, GAIL remains exposed to swings in global gas prices, which can help or hurt depending on contract structures and hedges.
- PSU and policy overhang: As a public‑sector enterprise, GAIL’s capital allocation, dividend policy and pricing flexibility can be influenced by wider government objectives, not just minority‑shareholder returns.
Bottom line: how the pieces fit together
Putting all of this together:
- Fundamentally, GAIL looks like a moderately valued, cash‑generating gas infrastructure utility with stable core transmission and marketing businesses and a volatile petrochemical leg.
- Regulation has just moved slightly in its favour via the ~12% tariff hike, adding clarity and a meaningful earnings tailwind from 2026 onwards. [42]
- Analyst opinion is sharply divided, with price targets ranging roughly from ₹145 (Kotak) to ₹230 (Jefferies), and a consensus near ₹207 still implying double‑digit upside from current prices. [43]
- Technical indicators and F&O positioning currently lean cautious to negative in the very short term, following late‑November selling and heavy derivatives activity. [44]
For potential investors, the decision essentially comes down to whether you see GAIL as:
- A steady, dividend‑yielding gas utility that will benefit from India’s growing gas usage and tariffs (Motilal Oswal / Jefferies narrative), or
- A low‑growth PSU with limited EPS acceleration and sizeable capex risk, where even tariff hikes are not enough to justify much re‑rating (Kotak’s narrative).
Either way, GAIL’s story through 2026 will likely be written by three variables: gas volumes on its expanded network, petrochemical margins, and future regulatory decisions – all of which deserve close tracking alongside the day‑to‑day noise in futures and intraday trading calls.
References
1. www.indmoney.com, 2. www.indmoney.com, 3. www.indmoney.com, 4. www.indmoney.com, 5. m.economictimes.com, 6. dhan.co, 7. www.moneycontrol.com, 8. www.moneycontrol.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. pngrb.gov.in, 11. www.moneycontrol.com, 12. www.livemint.com, 13. stockinvest.us, 14. www.marketsmojo.com, 15. www.equityright.com, 16. www.equityright.com, 17. www.equityright.com, 18. www.equityright.com, 19. pngrb.gov.in, 20. stockinvest.us, 21. www.indmoney.com, 22. www.moneycontrol.com, 23. trendlyne.com, 24. trendlyne.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.marketscreener.com, 29. www.marketscreener.com, 30. trendlyne.com, 31. stockinvest.us, 32. walletinvestor.com, 33. simplywall.st, 34. simplywall.st, 35. www.iea.org, 36. pngrb.gov.in, 37. www.gailonline.com, 38. www.gailonline.com, 39. www.equityright.com, 40. www.investing.com, 41. www.equityright.com, 42. www.moneycontrol.com, 43. www.investing.com, 44. stockinvest.us
