Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) stock is back in focus on Dec. 15, 2025 as investors weigh a messy mix of forces: a year-long selloff tied to artificial intelligence disruption worries, fresh institutional-position headlines, notable insider activity, and a steady drumbeat of Wall Street price-target updates.
As of 15:26 UTC on Monday, Gartner shares traded at $242.94, up about 3.9% from the prior close, after moving between $235.30 and $245.32 intraday.
That bounce doesn’t erase the bigger story: Gartner has been lumped into the “AI winners/losers” narrative in 2025, with some investors treating subscription research and data-driven advisory businesses as vulnerable to large language models. Others argue the market may be oversimplifying what Gartner sells—and why enterprises still pay for it. [1]
Below is a detailed roundup of the key Gartner stock news, forecasts, and market analysis relevant to Dec. 15, 2025, plus the metrics most likely to matter next.
Gartner stock price: what the market is doing right now
Gartner’s move higher Monday comes against a broader backdrop of markets trying to stabilize after a bruising AI-related selloff that hit several mega-cap tech names last week, according to Reuters’ global markets morning note. [2]
For Gartner specifically, the price action is notable because the stock has been trying to build a base after a steep drop in 2025. MarketWatch recently highlighted Gartner as one of the harder-hit S&P 500 names this year, with the slide tied to investor anxiety that AI could weaken demand for subscription-based research offerings. [3]
The stock’s drawdown from its peak remains dramatic. A MarketWatch data report earlier this month noted Gartner closed at $227.28 on Dec. 8 and was more than 60% below its $584.01 52‑week high set on Feb. 4. [4]
The big debate: is AI actually “crushing” Gartner—or just repricing it?
One of the most-read Gartner-related pieces circulating on Dec. 15 is a MarketWatch analysis that puts Gartner in the crosshairs of the AI narrative. The thesis goes like this:
- Investors fear large language models can replicate “research-like” outputs, threatening firms that sell information and analysis subscriptions.
- That fear has contributed to big declines in Gartner (and peer FactSet) this year.
- Some analysts argue the selloff may be overdone, because the value proposition isn’t just text generation—it’s trusted frameworks, benchmark data, expert networks, and enterprise decision support. [5]
MarketWatch also notes Gartner is not standing still on AI—using it internally for productivity and helping clients navigate their own AI transitions—while still facing real headwinds like longer sales cycles and tighter budgets. [6]
Bottom line: the market’s argument is no longer “does Gartner matter?” but “how much pricing power and renewal durability does Gartner retain in an AI-saturated world?”
New “holder behavior” headline: Liontrust cuts position (and why it matters)
A separate headline hitting tape today comes from MarketBeat: Liontrust Investment Partners LLP cut its Gartner stake by 85.2% in Q2, selling 8,658 shares and leaving a smaller position valued around $608,000 (per the filing MarketBeat summarized). [7]
Two important caveats for readers:
- This is backward-looking (Q2 positioning), even if it’s being discussed now.
- A single fund move rarely “explains” a stock—yet it can reinforce the idea that some institutions reduced exposure during Gartner’s downtrend.
Still, the timing is interesting because it hits as investors are asking whether Gartner is nearing an inflection point for its core subscription momentum.
Insider activity: a director’s Form 4 purchase is getting attention
One of the more concrete, high-signal datapoints around Gartner in mid-December is insider buying.
A Form 4 filed on Dec. 12, 2025 shows director Stephen G. Pagliuca reported transactions dated Dec. 10, 2025. [8]
Insider buying doesn’t guarantee a bottom—executives can be early, wrong, or simply rebalancing—but markets tend to notice when insiders buy during a drawn-out decline. It adds to the narrative that at least one well-informed participant viewed prices as attractive enough to step in.
MarketBeat’s coverage of recent insider activity also referenced December 3 sales by two executives (small share counts relative to the company overall), which can read as routine rather than thesis-changing—but it’s part of the broader “who’s buying vs. selling” mosaic investors track. [9]
The metric investors keep circling: “contract value” and the growth scare
If you want to understand Gartner stock, you have to understand what spooks Gartner shareholders: contract value (CV).
In Gartner’s third-quarter 2025 results (released in early November and reproduced via Barchart), the company reported:
- Contract Value: $5.0 billion, up 3.0% year over year (FX-neutral)
- Management emphasized CV growth of 6% excluding U.S. federal business
- CEO commentary highlighted expectations that CV accelerates in 2026 [10]
Why this matters: for Gartner’s subscription-heavy model, CV is watched as a forward-looking indicator of revenue durability and expansion. When CV growth slows, investors worry the subscription engine is losing torque.
That “CV anxiety” is showing up again in today’s market conversation. A widely circulated investor-letter summary (via Finviz) said TimesSquare Capital Management liquidated Gartner after the company’s “key contract value metric fell short,” referencing the kind of disappointment that can trigger sharp post-earnings repricing. [11]
Gartner’s latest quarter: strong non-GAAP profitability, ugly GAAP optics
The same Q3 release showed a business that, depending on which lens you use, looks either resilient or bruised.
From the Q3 report details distributed via Barchart:
- Revenue: $1.524B (+2.7% as reported)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.76 (+10.4%)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $347M (+1.9%)
- Free cash flow: $269M (down sharply year over year)
- Net income: $35M (down sharply year over year) [12]
Part of the gap between “healthy adjusted results” and “bad GAAP headlines” came from special items. A transcript summary notes GAAP EPS fell in part due to a goodwill impairment in Digital Markets and the absence of a prior-year insurance gain, which makes year-over-year comparisons look harsher than operating reality. [13]
This is one reason Gartner has become a battleground stock: skeptics see weakening growth signals, while bulls see a still-profitable subscription machine that’s being repriced as if it’s structurally broken.
Guidance and buybacks: why some bulls think Gartner is “self-help” positioned
Gartner’s leadership has leaned into capital return as confidence messaging.
The Q3 release included a statement that Gartner repurchased more than $1 billion of its stock in the quarter—described as a company record for a single quarter. [14]
On forward outlook, an Investing.com report on Gartner’s Q3 2025 slides said Gartner raised full-year 2025 guidance to at least:
- $6.475B consolidated revenue
- $1.575B adjusted EBITDA
- $12.65 adjusted EPS
- $1.145B free cash flow [15]
Buybacks can’t solve everything (especially if fundamentals erode), but they can amplify per-share earnings power if contract value stabilizes and renewals hold.
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees IT stock going
As of mid-December, Gartner sits in a familiar “not hated, not loved” spot on the Street: mostly Hold/Neutral-type stances, but with a very wide spread in targets.
MarketBeat’s forecast page lists:
- Average price target:$311.67
- Low target:$218
- High target:$557 [16]
StockAnalysis, another widely followed aggregator, similarly reports a consensus Hold rating and an average target in the low $300s (with targets last updated in early November, after the Q3 earnings window). [17]
A MarketBeat recap of recent analyst actions also points to multiple target resets in November and late November—e.g., a lower target from Wells Fargo with an Underweight view, and targets around the mid‑$200s from firms rated Neutral/Equal Weight, alongside at least one higher Buy-rated target. [18]
How to interpret this:
- The average target implies meaningful upside from late-2025 prices.
- The range implies deep disagreement about whether Gartner is merely cyclical (and rebounds) or structurally disrupted (and de-rates further).
- “Hold” consensus often signals analysts want clearer proof—usually via CV acceleration, improved sales cycles, and renewal strength.
A quieter but real catalyst: index changes that include Gartner
One piece of genuinely fresh, date-stamped news on Dec. 15 comes from STOXX.
In an Index Update dated Dec. 15, 2025, STOXX announced changes to the composition of certain iSTOXX indices effective Dec. 22, 2025. [19]
In the table of changes, “GARTNER ‘A’” (ISIN US3666511072) appears as an Addition to the iSTOXX MUTB Global ESG Quality 200 index (effective 22.12.2025). [20]
Index inclusions can matter because:
- Passive funds and index-tracking products may need to buy shares to reflect changes.
- The effect is often modest, but in a thin news cycle it can influence short-term flows and sentiment.
What matters next for Gartner stock
From all the Dec. 15 newsflow and the recent earnings backdrop, the next catalysts investors are likely to focus on are:
1) Contract value trajectory (especially outside U.S. federal)
Management has already framed U.S. federal as a drag and signaled expectations for acceleration into 2026. Investors will want evidence, not promises. [21]
2) AI positioning: threat vs. distribution channel
The AI narrative won’t fade. The market is trying to decide whether Gartner is being replaced by AI—or whether Gartner becomes one of the firms enterprises trust to evaluate AI, govern it, and operationalize it. [22]
3) Margin durability and capital return
A company can look “growth-light” yet still generate attractive shareholder returns if it sustains margins and buys back stock aggressively. Gartner is clearly leaning into that playbook. [23]
4) Insider and institutional signals
A director buying stock is a vote of confidence; institutions trimming exposure is a vote of caution. Neither is destiny, but together they shape narrative momentum. [24]
The takeaway
Gartner stock on Dec. 15, 2025 sits at the intersection of three storylines:
- A macro narrative (AI disruption fears and a volatile tech tape),
- A business narrative (contract value growth, sales-cycle friction, and what “AI-ready advisory” really means),
- A capital-markets narrative (buybacks, insider buying, shifting institutional ownership, and a wide spread of analyst targets).
The near-term bounce is encouraging for bulls, but Gartner’s next sustained move likely depends on whether management can convert “CV accelerates in 2026” from a thesis into a visible trend—while convincing the market that AI is a tailwind to its enterprise influence rather than a substitute for it. [25]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. finviz.com, 12. www.barchart.com, 13. fintool.com, 14. www.barchart.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.stoxx.com, 20. www.stoxx.com, 21. www.barchart.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.barchart.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.barchart.com
