New York, Jan 30, 2026, 06:57 EST — Premarket
- RBOB gasoline futures dropped 0.6% in early trading, pulling back after Thursday’s steep surge.
- U.S. pump prices hovered around $2.87 a gallon, remaining significantly lower than they were a year ago.
- Traders are focusing on how quickly supply bounces back from the storm and the upcoming U.S. inventory report.
RBOB gasoline futures for New York Harbor dipped 0.6% to $1.9233 a gallon by 6:56 a.m. EST on Friday, erasing some of the gains from a strong session the day before. The contract slipped 1.2 cents from its last close. 1
This matters now because RBOB serves as the key wholesale benchmark for U.S. gasoline pricing, and fluctuations here usually trickle down to retail prices after a delay. With winter weather throwing supply chains off balance and geopolitical tensions shifting crude markets, gasoline prices have grown volatile once more.
On Friday, the U.S. national average price for regular gasoline stood at $2.873 a gallon, holding steady from the previous day but up compared to last week, according to AAA. The data also showed drivers were paying roughly 24 cents less than they did a year ago. 2
Gasoline prices have mirrored oil’s shifts this week: concerns over supply sent them higher, only to be tempered by diplomatic chatter. Traders also monitored refinery activity closely, watching for fallout from the winter storm and its impact on regional availability.
Oil jumped to five-month peaks on Thursday, pushing refined products higher. Brent closed at $70.71 a barrel, with U.S. WTI finishing at $65.42. The market is factoring in the risk of a U.S.-Iran confrontation, while PVM’s John Evans highlighted the “immediate concern” over potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. 3
Crude prices dipped on Friday as jitters eased. Brent dropped almost 1% to $70.03 by 0958 GMT, while WTI fell to $64.70. The shift came after President Donald Trump hinted at possible talks with Iran’s leadership. Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted that the president’s openness to “give diplomacy a chance” reduced the odds of military action compared to the day before. 4
The winter storm continues to disrupt supply despite easing temperatures. Energy Aspects, a consultancy, put U.S. crude production offline at around 500,000 barrels per day on Thursday. Valero COO Gary Simmons noted wholesale liftings were “about 40% of the prior weekend” when the storm struck, adding they have been “gradually recovering.” 5
Inventory figures have offered little support to bulls. The EIA reported a 0.2 million barrel increase in gasoline stocks last week, leaving levels roughly 5% above the five-year average. This suggests supply hasn’t tightened much, even with recent weather disruptions. 6
EIA reported U.S. gasoline stocks at 257.213 million barrels for the week ending Jan. 23. The next update is set for Feb. 4. 7
RBOB stands for reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending — the wholesale gasoline base used in U.S. futures markets. While it typically tracks crude oil, it can diverge when refinery problems or logistics bottlenecks tighten supply in crucial areas.
The downside scenario is straightforward. January usually drags, gasoline inventories are already elevated for this time of year, and if Iran tensions ease, crude and gasoline futures could slide further.
Wednesday’s EIA petroleum report on Feb. 4 is the next key event, with fresh data on Gulf Coast refinery run rates expected as the cold snap eases. Over the weekend, traders will keep a close eye on Iran headlines for potential shocks to oil and gasoline prices.
