Published: December 10, 2025
GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) has firmly planted itself at the center of the “AI power” trade after a blockbuster 2025 Investor Update that lifted long‑term guidance, doubled its dividend, and expanded its share repurchase program to $10 billion. The stock is surging to record highs and attracting a wave of analyst upgrades as investors bet that the energy technology company will be one of the biggest winners from the explosion in electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence and electrification. [1]
What GE Vernova Announced at Its 2025 Investor Update
At its Investor Update in New York on December 9, GE Vernova laid out a materially stronger financial trajectory through 2028. Management kept its 2025 revenue and margin outlook intact, but raised free‑cash‑flow guidance and issued new 2026 targets while sharply lifting its long‑term 2028 goals. [2]
Headline guidance now looks like this:
- 2025
- Revenue: $36–$37 billion , trending toward the high end of the range
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 8–9%
- Free cash flow (FCF): $3.5–$4.0 billion , up from a prior $3.0–$3.5 billion outlook [3]
- 2026
- Revenue: $41–$42 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 11–13%
- Free cash flow: $4.5–$5.0 billion [4]
- By 2028
- Revenue: $52 billion , up from a previous target of $45 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 20% , raised from 14%
- Cumulative free cash flow (2025–2028): $22 billion+ , versus a prior “$14 billion+” target [5]
Those upgrades effectively confirm that management now sees faster growth, larger margins, and much stronger cash generation than it was willing to commit to just a year ago.
Segment‑level guidance reinforces that story:
- Power : mid-teens revenue growth and EBITDA margins rising into the mid-teens to low-20s by 2028
- Electrification : high‑teens revenue CAGR with margins also climbing toward the low‑20s
- Wind : still a drag in 2025–2026, with losses, but targeted to reach about 6% EBITDA margin by 2028 (down from a prior 10% goal as management resets expectations) [6]
Dividend Doubled and Buyback Authorization Raised to $10 Billion
Alongside the higher guidance, GE Vernova’s board moved aggressively on shareholder returns.
- The quarterly dividend is doubling from $0.25 to $0.50 per share , implying a new $2.00 annual payout starting with the first‑quarter 2026 payment (record date January 5, 2026; payable February 2, 2026). [7]
- The share repurchase authorization increases from $6 billion to $10 billion , a $4 billion boost. As of December 3, 2025, the company had already repurchased about $3.3 billion worth of shares from the prior authorization. [8]
With GE Vernova’s market capitalization around $170 billion , a $10 billion buyback represents roughly 6% of the company’s equity value if fully executed at recent prices. [9]
Management reiterated that its capital‑allocation framework is built on three pillars:
- Organic investment in growth, including factories, AI, automation, and R&D
- Returning at least one‑third of cash generation to shareholders , mainly via buybacks and dividends
- Targeted M&A , such as the planned purchase of the remaining 50% of transformer maker Prolec GE for $5.28 billion to strengthen the grid business [10]
In other words, the company is signaling confidence in its long‑term cash flows—and a willingness to send a sizeable portion of that cash back to investors.
Backlog Targets and the AI Data Center Power Boom
Underpinning the new guidance is a rapid expansion in GE Vernova’s backlog, especially in gas turbines and grid equipment.
Management now expects:
- Total backlog to grow from about $135 billion today to roughly $200 billion by year-end 2028
- Electrification backlog to double from around $30 billion to $60 billion over the same period [11]
So far this quarter, GE Vernova has signed contracts for 18 gigawatts (GW) of gas turbines and expects to hit around 80 GW of combined slot reservations and backlog by year‑end—critical capacity for utilities and data‑center operators scrambling for reliable power. [12]
A Reuters summary of the update notes that surging electricity consumption from AI and cryptocurrency data centers is driving demand for the company’s grid equipment and steam and gas turbines. [13]
That narrative has made GE Vernova a kind of “picks‑and‑shovels” play on AI . Instead of selling chips or cloud services, it sells the heavy infrastructure—turbines, transformers, high-voltage equipment—that keeps those data centers running.
“Most Important Component to the AI Theme”: How Wall Street Sees GEV
If the numbers weren’t bullish enough, the sell‑side reaction has been overwhelmingly positive.
- William Blair reiterated its Outperform rating, describing GE Vernova as a leader in energy and power infrastructure and, in his view, “the most important component to the AI theme.” The firm argues that even the upgraded 2028 targets look conservative given the demand backdrop. [14]
- JPMorgan raised its price target on GEV to $1,000 , up from $740, while maintaining an Overweight rating. [15]
- BofA Securities hiked its target from $725 to $804 , keeping a Buy rating and emphasizing that management’s new 2028 guidance is above prior consensus. [16]
- BMO Capital lifted its target to $780 (from $710) and maintained an Outperform rating, pointing to an implied 2028 EBITDA outlook of about $10.4 billion . [17]
- Additional firms including UBS, RBC, Oppenheimer, Susquehanna and Wolfe Research either upgraded the stock or raised their targets, often citing the same mix of stronger guidance and structural exposure to AI‑driven power demand. [18]
Across the coverage, a common theme is emerging: GE Vernova isn’t just “an energy stock” anymore—it’s becoming the core way to play AI‑related electricity demand, grid modernization and nuclear/gas baseload power in one bundle.
Stock Reaction: Big Gap‑Up and Record Highs
The market response has been just as enthusiastic as the analysts’.
- In after-hours trading immediately after the update, GEV shares jumped about 6–7% , trading around $667 . [19]
- Pre‑market on December 10, the stock was up around 10% , with one report citing a move to roughly $685–$691 as the stock broke out of a four‑month base and cleared a technical buy point near $677. [20]
- Year‑to‑date, GE Vernova’s share price is now up roughly 90% , placing it among the top‑performing stocks in the S&P 500. [21]
Ahead of the investor day, GEV was already trading almost $615 per share with a trailing P/E ratio around 100x , according to independent analysis. TechStock² The latest spike pushes that valuation even higher, underscoring how much future growth is now baked into the price.
The Other Side of the Story: Rare‑Earths, Wind Losses and High Expectations
The bullish setup doesn’t mean GE Vernova is risk‑free.
1. Rare‑earth supply chain pressure
In a separate update, Reuters reported that GE Vernova is working with the US government to build stockpiles of the rare earth element yttrium , which is crucial for high‑temperature alloys and coatings used in gas turbines. China, the dominant supplier, has imposed export controls, leading to shortages and a 4,400% price spike outside China this year. [22]
CEO Scott Strazik said the company has enough yttrium to cover the rest of 2025 and into 2026 and is investing in alternative materials, though he acknowledged trade‑offs in cost and performance. That’s reassuring—but it also highlights how sensitive the business is to geopolitical and materials risks .
2. Wind remains a drag
While Power and Electrification are accelerating, Wind is still loss‑making :
- GE Vernova expects about $400 million in segment EBITDA losses in 2025 and similar losses in 2026.
- By 2028, Wind is targeted to reach only about 6% EBITDA margin , and management has explicitly lowered that long‑term margin target versus prior guidance. [23]
Wind’s turnaround is central to the 2028 profit story; any renewed project delays, contract issues or policy changes could weigh on margins.
3. Execution and valuation risk
Given how quickly the stock has run:
- The company’s trailing earnings multiple is in triple‑digit territory , and forward multiples are also elevated relative to most industrial peers. TechStock²+ 1
- Hitting 20% EBITDA margins and at least $22 billion in cumulative FCF by 2028 will require tight execution on pricing, productivity, and mix shift toward higher‑margin services and Electrification products. [24]
Any stumble in growth, margins, or free‑cash‑flow timing could trigger a sharp correction, especially now that multiple analysts are flagging the story as one of the best long‑term ways to play AI‑driven power demand. [25]
What Today’s News Means for GE Vernova Investors
For investors following GE Vernova, the December 10 news flow adds up to a few key takeaways:
- Structural growth story looks stronger
Management has upgraded revenue, margin and cash flow targets across 2025, 2026 and 2028, backed by a growing backlog and clear demand from AI data centers, grid modernization and decarbonization. [26] - Capital returns are becoming a real part of the equation
A doubled dividend and a $10 billion buyback authorization—on top of already‑significant repurchases—signal that GE Vernova is transitioning from a pure “story stock” to a cash‑return story , even if the current dividend yield remains modest at today’s share price. [27] - GE Vernova is now firmly an “AI infrastructure” bellwether
With multiple firms calling the company the most important infrastructure piece of the AI theme, and with about a quarter of global electricity generated on its installed base, GEV has moved to the center of the AI-energy narrative. [28] - But expectations are very high
Rare‑earth supply constraints, wind‑segment losses, policy risks and rich valuation all mean that the bar is now set high. Investors will be watching quarterly results closely to see whether bookings, margins and FCF track the ambitious new plan. [29]
References
1. www.gevernova.com, 2. www.gevernova.com, 3. www.gevernova.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.stocktitan.net, 6. www.stocktitan.net, 7. www.gevernova.com, 8. www.stocktitan.net, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.gevernova.com, 11. www.stocktitan.net, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.streetinsider.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.streetinsider.com, 23. www.stocktitan.net, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.gevernova.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.gevernova.com, 29. www.streetinsider.com
