GE Vernova (GEV) Soars After Hours as Dividend Doubles and Outlook Surges – What to Know Before the December 10, 2025 Open

GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) lit up the tape on Tuesday night, jumping in after‑hours trading after the company used its 2025 Investor Update to raise its multi‑year outlook, double its quarterly dividend and expand its stock buyback program. ^[1]

For investors heading into Wednesday’s U.S. market open on December 10, 2025, GEV is now one of the most closely watched names in the “AI power infrastructure” trade. Here’s a detailed look at what just happened, why the stock spiked after the bell, and the key issues to watch when trading resumes.

GE Vernova stock after the bell on December 9, 2025

Regular session

Tuesday close: GEV finished the December 9 regular session at $625.30, up about 0.55% on the day.
Intraday range: Shares traded roughly between $613 and $637 on volume just under 3 million shares. ^[2]
52‑week range and performance: Over the past year, the stock has moved between $252.25 and $677.29 and is up roughly 90% in the last 12 months, far outpacing the broader S&P 500. ^[3]

After‑hours surge

Once the company released its updated guidance and capital‑return plans after the close, the stock rallied about 6–7% in extended trading, with quotes clustered around $663–$668, putting GEV back within striking distance of its 52‑week high. ^[4]

Unless sentiment reverses overnight, those after‑hours gains suggest GE Vernova could open significantly higher on Wednesday, likely setting up fresh debates over valuation, growth, and how long the AI‑driven power boom can last.

Inside GE Vernova’s 2025 Investor Update: guidance raised across the board

The main catalyst for the move was GE Vernova’s 2025 Investor Update event in New York, where management laid out a much more ambitious roadmap through 2028 and beyond. ^[5]

2025 and 2026: near‑term guidance

GE Vernova:

Reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, saying it still expects:
- Revenue of $36–37 billion, trending toward the high end of the range
- Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8–9%
- Free cash flow of $3.5–4.0 billion, lifted from a prior $3.0–3.5 billion outlook ^[6]
Issued 2026 guidance for the first time:
- Revenue of $41–42 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11–13%
- Free cash flow of $4.5–5.0 billion ^[7]

Management tied that step‑up to ongoing strength in its Power and Electrification businesses, particularly from grid upgrades and gas turbines supporting data‑center demand.

2028 and beyond: bigger, more profitable company

The biggest surprise for investors came in the multi‑year outlook. GE Vernova now expects by 2028 to reach: ^[8]

Revenue of about $52 billion, up from a prior target of $45 billion
Adjusted EBITDA margin of ~20%, raised from 14% in earlier guidance
At least $22 billion in cumulative free cash flow from 2025–2028, versus a previous “$14+ billion” expectation

To support those numbers, the company also forecast:

Total backlog growth from roughly $135 billion today to about $200 billion by year‑end 2028, with the Electrification backlog doubling from $30 billion to $60 billion
Around 80 gigawatts of combined gas‑turbine contracts and slot reservations by the end of 2025, giving unusually strong visibility into future Power‑segment revenue ^[9]

In other words, management is telling investors that this is not a short‑term bump but a multi‑year growth story with rising margins and robust cash generation.

Dividend doubled, buyback boosted: capital‑return story shifts gears

Alongside the guidance upgrade, GE Vernova’s board delivered a one‑two punch for income and capital‑return‑focused investors. ^[10]

Dividend: from token to meaningful (though still modest)

The quarterly dividend was doubled from $0.25 to $0.50 per share, starting with the first‑quarter 2026 payment.
The next dividend at the new rate is scheduled for February 2, 2026, for shareholders of record on January 5, 2026. ^[11]

At Tuesday’s price levels, that implies an annualized payout of $2.00 per share and a forward yield of roughly 0.3%, up from about 0.16% previously but still low compared with many traditional utilities. TechStock²+1

The bigger message: management is confident enough in its free‑cash‑flow trajectory to commit more cash to shareholders while still investing heavily in growth.

Buyback: more dry powder

The board also increased GE Vernova’s share‑repurchase authorization to $10 billion from $6 billion.
The company has already used about $3.3 billion of that authorization as of December 3, 2025. ^[12]

A larger buyback gives management flexibility to offset dilution, support the share price during volatility, and opportunistically retire shares if the stock pulls back.

AI and data centers: the demand engine behind the guidance

The other crucial part of Tuesday’s story is where the growth is coming from.

In separate comments reported by Reuters, CEO Scott Strazik said GE Vernova expects to have 80 gigawatts of signed combined‑cycle gas‑turbine contracts by year‑end as electricity demand surges from large technology companies’ data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. ^[13]

Key points from those remarks and the Investor Update:

Gas turbines sold out through 2028, with less than 10% of capacity left to sell for 2029, according to Strazik. ^[14]
The company now sees mid‑teens organic revenue growth in its Power segment in 2026 and about 20% growth in Electrification, driven by grid equipment and data‑center infrastructure. ^[15]
Management expects AI‑driven data centers to account for roughly a third of U.S. gas‑power transactions going forward, underscoring how tightly the story is now linked to AI infrastructure spending. ^[16]

This helps explain why GE Vernova has become a favorite in the “picks and shovels” trade on AI: instead of selling chips or cloud services, it sells the power plants, grid equipment and transformers that keep those data centers running.

Fundamentals backdrop: strong Q3 2025 results

Tuesday’s guidance builds on an already solid operational base.

For Q3 2025, GE Vernova reported: ^[17]

Orders of $14.6 billion, up 55% organically
Revenue of about $9.97–10.0 billion, up roughly 12% year‑over‑year, beating consensus estimates around $9.15 billion
Adjusted EBITDA of about $0.8 billion with an 8.1% margin
Free cash flow of about $0.7 billion for the quarter
A swing to profit of roughly $453 million ($1.64 per share) from a loss a year earlier

The wind segment is still the laggard, with revenue down and margins negative, but orders and losses have been improving. The Power and Electrification segments, by contrast, are growing rapidly with improving profitability. ^[18]

Management reaffirmed at that time that 2025 revenue should land toward the high end of $36–37 billion, a stance it reiterated on Tuesday. ^[19]

Valuation check heading into Wednesday’s open

Even before the after‑hours spike, GE Vernova was not a cheap stock by traditional metrics.

Recent snapshots from several data providers show: ^[20]

Market cap: about $170 billion
Trailing twelve‑month EPS: roughly $6.1 per share
Trailing P/E ratio: about 100–102x
Forward P/E: in the mid‑ to high‑50s, based on 2026 estimates

In short, the market is already pricing in years of strong growth and margin expansion. The Investor Update goes a long way toward justifying that optimism, but it also raises the stakes: any disappointment on execution or demand could trigger a sharp re‑rating.

What Wall Street is saying: ratings, price targets and earnings forecasts

Analyst ratings and targets

Across multiple platforms, analyst sentiment is broadly positive but valuation‑sensitive:

MarketBeat reports coverage from 33 research firms, with 4 Strong Buys, 19 Buys, 8 Holds and 2 Sells, for an overall “Moderate Buy” rating and an average 12‑month target around $616. ^[21]
StockAnalysis shows a similar Buy consensus and an average target around $625, roughly in line with Tuesday’s close. ^[22]
Other sources, including Investing.com and Stocksguide, show average targets ranging from the low‑$600s to around $720, with most analysts still in the Buy camp but a minority flagging valuation risk. TechStock²+1

The range of targets reflects the core debate: is GE Vernova a reasonably priced way to play a decade‑long power and grid upgrade cycle, or has the stock already run too far, too fast?

Earnings expectations

Consensus forecasts currently suggest: TechStock²+2MarketBeat+2

Full‑year 2025 EPS in the $7–8 per‑share range
A meaningful step‑up in 2026 EPS, lining up with higher revenue and margin guidance
Next earnings report expected in late January 2026 (various sites list dates between January 21 and January 28, pending the company’s official confirmation)

Those EPS numbers, combined with Tuesday’s price action, are what drive the lofty P/E multiples investors are now wrestling with.

Big money flows: institutions still accumulating

Tuesday’s buying interest is not just a retail story. Institutional investors have been steadily building positions in GE Vernova through 2024 and 2025.

A new MarketBeat summary of Q2 filings, published on December 9, highlights that: ^[23]

State Street Corp increased its stake by about 206,650 shares in Q2, now holding roughly 11.1 million shares, or a little over 4% of the company, valued at nearly $5.9 billion at the time of the filing.
Other institutional investors, including regional banks and wealth managers, have also been adding to positions, contributing to institutional ownership above 78% of shares outstanding.

Heavy institutional ownership can support liquidity and price stability, but it also means that if large funds ever decide to rotate out, moves in either direction can be amplified.

Key things to watch before the December 10, 2025 open

As traders and longer‑term investors prepare for Wednesday’s session, here are the main issues to keep on the radar.

1. Do after‑hours gains stick?

The first question is simple: Does GEV hold most of that ~6–7% after‑hours pop when regular trading resumes?

A strong open and sustained bid would signal that institutional investors are endorsing the new guidance and capital‑return plan, potentially pushing the stock toward or beyond its prior high near $677. ^[24]
A “sell‑the‑news” reversal – where the stock opens higher but fades into the red – would suggest that good news was already priced in and short‑term traders are taking profits.

Watch pre‑market quotes, index futures and volume: heavy pre‑market volume leaning one way or another will offer early clues.

2. Valuation vs. growth narrative

At around 100x trailing earnings and 50‑plus times forward earnings, GE Vernova is trading at a premium even to many high‑growth tech names, not just utilities. ^[25]

Key questions for Wednesday and beyond:

Do investors embrace the idea that AI and electrification make this a multi‑decade growth story, justifying a premium multiple?
Or does the market start to rotate toward cheaper plays in energy and infrastructure now that expectations are so high?

Any fresh analyst notes reacting to Investor Day — especially from high‑profile banks — could move the stock in early trading.

3. AI demand and project timing

The new guidance leans heavily on continued strength in AI‑driven data‑center power demand and massive grid upgrades. ^[26]

Investors will be weighing:

Whether hyperscale cloud providers continue signing long‑dated contracts at the current pace
How sensitive orders might be to macro shocks, regulation, or a slowdown in AI spending
Execution risk on big projects, especially in Electrification and Wind, where supply‑chain issues or permitting delays could affect timelines

Any new headlines on data‑center build‑outs, large grid contracts, or AI‑infrastructure spending could quickly filter into GEV’s share price.

4. Wind segment turnaround

While Tuesday’s narrative was overwhelmingly positive, wind remains the trouble spot:

GE Vernova’s wind segment saw revenue decline in Q3 and continues to operate at a loss, though orders and margins have been trending in the right direction. ^[27]
The 2028 plan assumes a gradual but meaningful improvement, with wind turning profitable later in the decade. TechStock²+1

If investors start to doubt that turnaround, they may question whether the company can truly hit its 20% margin target.

5. Macro and rates

Finally, broader market and interest‑rate conditions still matter:

As a capital‑intensive, long‑cycle business, GE Vernova is sensitive to bond yields and funding costs.
Any renewed spike in rates or risk‑off move in equities could weigh on richly valued infrastructure names, even if company‑specific news is positive.

Wednesday’s trading will reflect not just GE Vernova’s news, but also how investors feel about growth, inflation and the Fed more broadly.

Bottom line

GE Vernova just delivered exactly the kind of Investor Day Wall Street had been asking for: higher revenue and margin targets, stronger free‑cash‑flow guidance, a doubled dividend, and a bigger buyback, all backed by hard evidence of exploding demand for power and grid infrastructure tied to AI and electrification. ^[28]

That combination explains why GEV stock ripped higher after the bell on December 9 and why it will be front‑and‑center when U.S. markets open on December 10.

For traders, the near‑term question is whether momentum continues or turns into a near‑term top. For longer‑term investors, the decision is tougher: the business trajectory looks stronger than ever, but the valuation leaves little room for error.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Anyone considering GE Vernova stock should weigh their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial situation, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser.