GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) just delivered one of the biggest moves in the U.S. market, and the story isn’t only about a big green candle. It’s about a rewritten long‑term outlook, aggressive shareholder returns, and Wall Street suddenly talking about four‑digit price targets.
Here’s a detailed look at what happened after the bell on December 10, 2025, and what traders and investors should have on their radar before the market opens on December 11, 2025.
1. How GE Vernova Stock Traded on December 10
A record-setting session
After its investor day and guidance update, GE Vernova closed around $723 on Wednesday, December 10, up roughly 15–16% from Tuesday’s close near $625. Volume exploded to more than 10 million shares, versus roughly 3 million shares the prior day, as the stock hit intraday highs just above $730. [1]
The move made GEV one of the top performers in large‑cap U.S. stocks and a clear standout within industrials and energy equipment. An Investopedia market wrap highlighted GE Vernova as the day’s marquee gainer after its outlook raise, dividend hike and buyback increase. [2]
Pre-market and intraday ramp
The buying started before the opening bell:
- A Bloomberg-based report on EnergyConnects noted that GE Vernova shares were already up about 10% in pre-market trading on Wednesday after the company doubled its dividend, expanded buybacks and lifted earnings projections at its investor day. [3]
- A pre‑market movers table shared on Reddit showed GEV trading around $691, up about 10.5% vs. Tuesday’s close, before the regular session even began. [4]
From there, the stock kept climbing during the regular session, with intraday commentary from traders and news services emphasizing robust volume and strong trend continuation.
After the bell: gains hold into the evening
By just after the close, data providers such as Twelve Data were still showing GEV up roughly 15.6% on the day around $723, with the post‑market tape indicating that the bulk of the move held rather than fading immediately. [5]
A late‑evening breakdown from StocksToTrade described GEV as “trading up by about 15.6%” in extended hours, underscoring how unusual the move was for a large-cap industrial name and tying the momentum to renewed growth enthusiasm and project buzz. [6]
2. The Big Catalyst: Investor Day and a Much Stronger Long-Term Outlook
The core driver of the rally was GE Vernova’s 2025 Investor Update event in New York on December 9 and the detailed numbers that came with it.
Multi-year guidance gets a major upgrade
In an official press release, GE Vernova:
- Raised its 2028 outlook to $52 billion in revenue and 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, up from a prior forecast of $45 billion and 14% margin.
- Said it expects to grow its total backlog from $135 billion to about $200 billion by year-end 2028, including a doubling of the Electrification backlog from $30 billion to $60 billion.
- Now targets at least $22 billion of cumulative free cash flow between 2025 and 2028, versus a previous “at least $14 billion” figure, even after roughly $10 billion in capex and R&D over that period. [7]
For nearer term:
- 2025 revenue is still expected toward the high end of $36–$37 billion, with higher free cash flow guidance of $3.5–$4.0 billion. [8]
- 2026 guidance calls for $41–$42 billion in revenue and an 11–13% adjusted EBITDA margin, signalling significant operating leverage over the next 12–18 months. [9]
Analysts at Proactive Investors summed up the shift by noting that the company’s new targets imply a 20% margin for the Power segment by 2028 and a much higher overall earnings power than the Street had modeled, with some estimates suggesting EBITDA could approach $10 billion by that point. [10]
Dividend doubled, buybacks boosted
GE Vernova also leaned hard into shareholder returns:
- The quarterly dividend was doubled to $0.50 per share, starting with a payment in early 2026.
- The share repurchase authorization was raised from $6 billion to $10 billion. [11]
Bloomberg’s coverage (via EnergyConnects) framed the move as GE Vernova “showering shareholders with rewards” at a time when natural-gas power demand tied to AI data centers and electrification remains robust. [12]
AI, data centers and the “power for AI” theme
A recurring theme in both the company’s messaging and analyst commentary is that AI data centers and electrification are structurally lifting electricity demand:
- The company expects to sign around 80 GW of combined gas turbine slot reservations and backlog by the end of 2025. [13]
- CEO Scott Strazik emphasized that “electric power will be critical to unlocking economic growth in the decades ahead” and highlighted the company’s ability to serve this long‑cycle market with gas turbines, grid solutions and electrification software. [14]
Investopedia’s recap noted that the strong update and dividend/buyback news propelled GE Vernova shares to a record high, with analysts arguing that the company could beat its own raised targets given its track record. [15]
3. Wall Street Reaction: From Upgrades to a $1,000 Price Target
UBS, Oppenheimer and others lift their targets
Wednesday’s rally was accompanied by a wave of analyst activity:
- UBS raised its GE Vernova price target from $760 to $835, maintaining a “Buy” / “Strong Buy” rating and calling the new long‑term targets a “very strong update” and a credible floor rather than a stretch case. [16]
- Oppenheimer upgraded GEV from Hold to Buy with a $855 target, emphasizing the durability of AI and data-center‑driven power demand and the potential for sustained grid and electrification growth. [17]
- Other brokers, including RBC and Susquehanna, either upgraded the stock or raised their targets, with several highlighting upside potential in the Power segment’s margins and high‑margin service revenue later in the decade. [18]
According to StockAnalysis’ forecast compilation, 25 analysts now cover GE Vernova, with a consensus “Buy” rating. As of December 10, the average published 12‑month price target stood around $654, with a range from roughly $380 to $855 (note that many targets predate the latest rally and the new $835–$855 upgrades). [19]
JPMorgan goes to four digits
The splashiest headline came from JPMorgan:
- A TipRanks note reports that J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Strouse reiterated a Buy rating and lifted his price target from $740 to $1,000 per share, describing the guidance update and electrification strategy as justification for an “extremely bullish” stance. [20]
A Barron’s summary (via Yahoo Finance search results) also indicates that the average analyst price target has moved up to roughly the low‑$700s following Wednesday’s meeting, though the stock is now trading very close to or even above that refreshed consensus. [21]
Consensus still says “Buy” – but expectations are now sky-high
TipRanks’ separate forecast page shows GE Vernova with a “Moderate Buy” consensus, based on 18 analysts over the past three months, with an average price target of about $689 and a high of $760 (again, before the new $1,000 JPMorgan call and $835+ revisions fully flow through the data). [22]
For traders heading into the December 11 open, the takeaway is clear: sentiment has flipped decisively bullish, but the bar for future execution is now much higher.
4. New Storylines Emerging on December 10
4.1. A potential $7 billion Syrian power project
Beyond guidance and buybacks, one of the more eye‑catching headlines on December 10 involved a potential $7 billion gas‑turbine project in Syria:
- StocksToTrade reported that GE Vernova is in talks over a roughly $7 billion initiative to supply advanced gas turbines to Syria, positioning the company as a key player in rebuilding critical power infrastructure in a post‑conflict environment. [23]
While the project is still at the negotiation stage, it underscores:
- GE Vernova’s willingness to pursue large, complex deals in emerging and politically sensitive markets.
- The potential for additional high‑margin service and maintenance revenue if such turbines are installed and supported over decades.
At the same time, any such project would carry significant geopolitical, sanctions and execution risk, so it’s unlikely to be modeled aggressively into near‑term Street estimates just yet.
4.2. Rare earths and supply-chain risk: the yttrium story
Another December 10 Reuters piece zeroed in on a very different theme: critical minerals.
- CEO Scott Strazik told investors that GE Vernova is working with the U.S. government to build stockpiles of the rare earth element yttrium, which is used in turbine coatings and high‑temperature alloys, amid shortages driven by Chinese export controls. [24]
- He said the company has enough yttrium to cover the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and is also investing in alternatives to reduce reliance on vulnerable supply chains, even if substitutes may come with cost or performance trade‑offs. [25]
- Reuters noted that yttrium prices outside China have surged about 4,400% between January and November 2025, illustrating the scale of the supply shock that energy, aerospace and semiconductor firms are facing. [26]
For investors, this highlights two opposing forces:
- Risk – input‑cost pressures and potential disruption in a key material.
- Resilience – proactive inventory management and R&D aimed at mitigating those risks.
5. Is GE Vernova Stock Now Overvalued? Fresh Valuation Checks
With GEV up more than 80% year‑to‑date even before Wednesday’s spike – and now well above that level – valuation questions are naturally front and center. [27]
Simply Wall St: good company, rich valuation
A December 10 valuation note from Simply Wall St points out that:
- GE Vernova is up around 84.5% in 2025 and over 90% in the last 12 months, fuelled by enthusiasm about its role in the global energy transition. [28]
- Based on their discounted cash‑flow model, they estimate intrinsic value near $577 per share, implying the stock is roughly 8% above fair value at recent prices. [29]
- On a simple price‑to‑earnings basis, GE Vernova trades on a P/E close to 100x, versus ~31x for the broader electrical equipment industry, and a “fair” multiple nearer the mid‑70s in their framework – suggesting the market is paying a premium for the story. [30]
Their conclusion: GE Vernova looks fundamentally strong but priced for very high growth, meaning any disappointment in execution, margins or backlog could trigger volatility.
Street forecasts vs. the new price
- Before Wednesday’s surge, the average 12‑month target from 18–25 analysts sat in the mid‑$600s to low‑$700s, implying only modest upside from pre‑rally levels and now limited or even negative upside versus the new ~$720+ price. [31]
- Some of the most bullish targets (UBS $835, Oppenheimer $855, JPMorgan $1,000) are significantly above the market, but they also depend on GE Vernova hitting ambitious 2028 revenue, margin and free‑cash‑flow goals. [32]
In short: GE Vernova might still have room to run if everything goes right, but its valuation now assumes a lot of that success in advance.
6. Macro Backdrop: Fed Cuts and a Risk-On Tape
GE Vernova’s breakout didn’t happen in a vacuum.
On December 10, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5–3.75%, marking its third cut of 2025, and Chair Jerome Powell signaled that another rate hike is unlikely in the near term. [33]
According to Investopedia’s market wrap:
- The Dow rose about 1.1%, the S&P 500 gained around 0.7%, and the Nasdaq added about 0.3%, with the small‑cap Russell 2000 hitting a fresh all‑time high. [34]
- Bond yields eased slightly after the decision, and risk appetite remained firm across equities, crypto and commodities.
Lower rates and a “risk‑on” environment typically help capital‑intensive, long‑duration stories like GE Vernova, where investors are discounting cash flows many years into the future. Wednesday’s macro backdrop almost certainly amplified the stock’s move.
7. Key Things to Watch Before the December 11, 2025 Market Open
As you prepare for the next trading day, here are the main issues and data points to monitor for GE Vernova:
1. Can GEV hold the $700+ level?
- The stock just jumped ~15–16% on very heavy volume, closing around $720–$725. [35]
- Early pre-market indications on Thursday will show whether profit‑taking kicks in or whether dip‑buyers continue to defend the new price range. The $700 zone is now an obvious psychological and technical level to watch.
2. More analyst moves and target revisions
- Not all brokerage models will have been updated overnight for the new guidance and price action.
- Watch for further target lifts, new initiations, or potential downgrades from analysts who feel valuation has run too far, too fast.
- Any shift in consensus rating away from “Buy/Moderate Buy” would be notable, given today’s exuberant sentiment. [36]
3. Follow-up detail on the Syrian project and other mega-deals
- Any confirmation, clarification or pushback on the reported $7 billion Syrian gas‑turbine project could move the stock, especially if management comments on risk, timing or financing. [37]
- Investors will also be alert for additional large contract announcements, particularly with data‑center operators, utilities and governments, that validate the AI‑driven power demand narrative.
4. Supply chain and yttrium headlines
- GE Vernova’s remarks about yttrium shortages and strategic stockpiling came against a backdrop of extreme price spikes and geopolitical tension with China. [38]
- Any change in U.S.–China trade policy, export regimes for rare earths, or news from alternative suppliers could influence perceptions of margin resilience and execution risk in gas turbines.
5. Reaction to the Fed cut and broader market tone
- If Thursday’s session sees a risk‑off rotation (for example, if futures reverse or bond yields jump), high‑multiple winners like GE Vernova can be more vulnerable to sharp pullbacks. [39]
- Conversely, if the market continues to reward long‑duration growth and infrastructure plays, GEV may find ongoing support, especially from funds benchmarking clean‑energy and electrification themes.
6. Technicals and positioning
Even without going deep into charting tools, a few simple points matter:
- The stock has moved from the low $600s to the low $700s in two sessions, and from roughly $140 at its spin‑off to over $700 today. [40]
- Short‑term traders will be watching for gap‑fill attempts, intraday volatility and whether volume remains elevated or quickly normalizes.
- Longer‑term investors will likely focus less on the day‑to‑day noise and more on whether backlog, free cash flow and margins continue to track toward the ambitious 2028 targets.
8. Bottom Line
- What happened after the bell on December 10?
GE Vernova closed near a record high around $723, up roughly 15–16% on huge volume, with post‑market trading holding most of those gains. The move capped a 24‑hour period that started with a strong after‑hours pop on Tuesday and continued through pre‑market and regular‑session buying on Wednesday. [41] - Why did it happen?
The company dramatically raised its multi‑year outlook, doubled its dividend, boosted its buyback authorization to $10 billion, and tied its strategy explicitly to AI‑driven electricity demand and grid modernization. Analysts responded with upgrades and big target hikes, including a $1,000 target from JPMorgan. [42] - What should you know before the December 11 open?
GE Vernova is now priced as a premier energy‑transition and AI‑infrastructure winner, with valuation metrics (like a ~100x P/E) that assume sustained high growth and flawless execution. Fresh storylines – from a potential $7 billion Syrian project to yttrium supply‑chain constraints – add upside optionality but also new risks. [43]
For traders and investors, the message is simple: GE Vernova has never looked stronger fundamentally, but it has also rarely been more expensive. Whether the rally continues or cools from here will depend on how the company, the macro environment and the AI‑power narrative evolve from this pivotal week.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. www.energyconnects.com, 4. www.reddit.com, 5. twelvedata.com, 6. stockstotrade.com, 7. www.gevernova.com, 8. www.gevernova.com, 9. www.gevernova.com, 10. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 11. www.gevernova.com, 12. www.energyconnects.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.gevernova.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. stockstotrade.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. simplywall.st, 28. simplywall.st, 29. simplywall.st, 30. simplywall.st, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.investopedia.com, 34. www.investopedia.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. stockstotrade.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.investopedia.com, 40. markets.financialcontent.com, 41. www.investing.com, 42. www.gevernova.com, 43. stockstotrade.com
