Updated: December 11, 2025 – All figures in USD unless noted. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
GE Vernova Stock Since November 21, 2025: A 30% Surge in Three Weeks
GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV), the energy-focused spin‑off from General Electric completed in April 2024, has turned into one of the standout stories of the post‑breakup era. [1]
From the close on November 21, 2025 (about $555.84 per share) to the close on December 10, 2025 (about $723.00), GE Vernova stock jumped roughly 30% as investors digested a wave of new guidance, contract wins and analyst upgrades. [2]
At yesterday’s close, data providers show:
- Share price: about $723
- Market capitalization: roughly $196 billion
- Trailing P/E: around 115–120x
- Forward P/E: generally in the mid‑40s to mid‑80s, depending on the provider and earnings horizon
These valuation metrics put GE Vernova at a significant premium to the broader industrials sector and even to most electrification and power equipment peers. [3]
Year‑to‑date, the stock has roughly doubled (or more), with MarketWatch estimating a gain of about 120% and Barron’s citing an advance of roughly 90%, depending on the start date used. [4] Either way, GE Vernova has massively outperformed both GE Aerospace and the S&P 500 in 2025. [5]
What Sparked the Latest Rally? Inside the 2025 Investor Update
The big catalyst came on December 10, 2025, when GE Vernova hosted its 2025 Investor Update in New York City and sharply lifted its multi‑year financial outlook. [6]
Headline Guidance Through 2028
From the company’s own press release and presentation, the updated outlook now calls for: [7]
- 2025 guidance
- Revenue:$36–37 billion, trending toward the high end
- Adjusted EBITDA margin:8–9%
- Free cash flow (FCF):$3.5–4.0 billion, raised from a prior $3.0–3.5 billion range
- 2026 guidance
- Revenue:$41–42 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin:11–13%
- Free cash flow:$4.5–5.0 billion
- Outlook by 2028
- Revenue: about $52 billion, implying low‑double‑digit organic growth from 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: about 20%, up from 14% in the prior long‑term plan
- Cumulative FCF 2025–2028:$22+ billion, raised from an earlier $14+ billion target
Segment guidance highlights include: [8]
- Power: organic revenue growth expected to accelerate to high‑teens by 2028, with segment EBITDA margin improving to about 22%
- Electrification: high‑teens organic revenue CAGR and segment margin also targeted at about 22% by 2028
- Wind: revenue is expected to decline over the period, with the segment moving from losses toward mid‑single‑digit EBITDA margins by 2028
Dividend Doubling and a Bigger Buyback
GE Vernova paired the higher guidance with aggressive capital‑return measures: [9]
- Quarterly dividend doubled from $0.25 to $0.50 per share, starting with a payment scheduled for February 2, 2026
- Share repurchase authorization raised from $6 billion to $10 billion, with $3.3 billion already spent by early December
- Management reiterated a framework of returning at least one‑third of cash generation to shareholders over time
Market Reaction
The market loved it. On December 10: [10]
- The stock jumped 15–16% in a single session to a record around $723–725
- It registered its best day since its 2024 debut as an independent listing on the NYSE
- Trading volume spiked well above recent averages
Barron’s emphasized that the 2026 and 2028 revenue and margin targets are meaningfully higher than prior guidance, reinforcing a narrative of accelerating profitability as the portfolio shifts toward higher‑margin gas power and grid solutions. [11]
A Pure Play on AI‑Driven Power Demand
A key theme running through almost every recent analysis is GE Vernova’s role in powering AI data centers and broader electrification.
Gas Turbines as the “Most Important Component to the AI Theme”
Investor’s Business Daily framed GE Vernova as a leader in what it called the “most important component to the AI theme” – the reliable generation capacity needed to keep power‑hungry AI data centers running. [12]
Recent commentary and company disclosures highlight that: [13]
- GE Vernova has signed around 18 gigawatts of gas turbine contracts in the current quarter alone
- The company expects its equipment and services backlog to grow to about $200 billion by 2028, up from roughly $135 billion today
- Management plans to scale gas‑turbine capacity to about 24 gigawatts by 2028, targeting AI‑linked data centers and emerging markets needing firm baseload power
- Analysts note that intermittent renewables alone cannot meet the 24/7 load of AI data centers, making high‑efficiency gas turbines and grid upgrades critical
William Blair named GE Vernova a “top pick” for 2026 among energy and power‑tech names, citing its leadership in gas turbines and strong positioning across the power infrastructure value chain. [14]
New Contracts Since Late November
Since late November 2025, GE Vernova has also announced or been linked to several notable projects that reinforce its global footprint:
- BalWin5 offshore grid connection (North Sea)
GE Vernova and Seatrium secured a contract from TenneT to deliver key elements of the 2 GW “BalWin5” offshore grid connection, part of Germany’s and Europe’s broader push to integrate offshore wind at scale. [15] - First onshore wind repower outside the U.S. (Taiwan)
On November 19, 2025, the company announced its first onshore wind repower upgrade contract outside the United States, supplying repower kits for 25 turbines for Taiwan Power Company, plus a five‑year operations and maintenance agreement. [16] - Grid and transformer expansion (Prolec GE deal)
In October, GE Vernova agreed to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE, a transformer and grid‑equipment joint venture, strengthening its position in grid solutions as electrification accelerates. [17] - Critical materials and supply security
Management has highlighted work with the U.S. government to secure supplies of yttrium, a rare earth used in gas turbines, including exploring alternative materials to mitigate supply risk. [18]
Taken together, these updates support the idea that GE Vernova is leveraging AI‑driven demand and global decarbonization to build a long‑duration backlog in power, wind services and grid infrastructure.
Analyst Forecasts and Ratings Since Late November
Analysts have been racing to update their models since the investor day and the stock’s breakout.
Price Targets: From the $400s to $1,000
Recent moves include: [19]
- J.P. Morgan raised its price target to $1,000 per share – the current Street high – citing strong order momentum and visibility into multi‑year cash generation.
- Oppenheimer upgraded GEV to “Outperform” and lifted its price target to around $855, highlighting the company’s potential to benefit disproportionately from AI‑driven electrification.
- RBC Capital (earlier in November) lifted its target to $630, pointing to strong Q3 results and a “highly accretive” acquisition, while noting robust gas‑turbine demand in excess of 12 GW of orders.
- BMO Capital bumped its target to $710 on similar themes of gas turbine demand and accelerating grid investment.
- Bank of America recently lifted its target from $725 to around $804, maintaining a “Buy” rating.
- According to Investing.com/InvestingPro data, analyst targets now broadly span roughly $420–$835, excluding the new $1,000 outlier at the high end, with the next earnings report expected on January 28, 2026. [20]
Despite the bullish tilt, there are signs of caution:
- Redburn (Rothschild & Co Redburn) has maintained a “Sell” rating with a target around $475. [21]
- Seaport Global downgraded GEV from “Buy” to “Neutral” after the post‑event spike, suggesting a lot of good news is already priced in near the low‑$700s. [22]
MarketBeat notes that, on balance, the Street still skews “Buy”‑heavy, with analysts expecting about $6.6 in EPS for the current fiscal year. [23]
Short‑Term Trading and Quant Views
- A Zacks/Yahoo Finance piece from early December pointed out that GEV had risen about 3.5% over the prior month, supported by demand from data centers as well as solid trends in wind, gas and power services, though it also flagged supply‑chain pressures as an ongoing concern. [24]
- Nasdaq’s valuation‑focused commentary this week argued that the stock, while fundamentally strong, is trading at rich multiples, including a forward P/E around 80+ and a PEG ratio above 4, notably higher than industry averages. [25]
Simply Wall St similarly flagged that GEV’s P/E near ~100x is well above both the electrical equipment group (low‑30s) and a broader peer basket (high‑20s), suggesting investors are paying a hefty premium for future growth. [26]
Valuation Check: How Expensive Is GE Vernova After the Run‑Up?
With the share price now in the low‑$700s, most valuation services agree on a few points:
- Premium Earnings Multiples
- Trailing P/E: roughly 115–120x
- Forward P/E: generally 45–85x, depending on which earnings forecast and data provider you use
- PEG ratio: often above 2, and as high as the 4+ range in some models, versus industry averages around 2 or below. [27]
- High EV/EBITDA
- Various services estimate EV/EBITDA anywhere from roughly 40x to over 70x, far above many traditional industrial and utility peers. [28]
- Implied Free‑Cash‑Flow Yield
Using the company’s own 2026 FCF guidance of $4.5–5.0 billion and a current market cap near $196 billion, the stock is trading at an implied FCF yield of only about 2.3–2.5% – or roughly 39–44x 2026 free cash flow. [29] - Underlying Fundamentals Still Growing Quickly
Multiples.vc data suggests last‑twelve‑month revenue of around $37.2 billion and EBITDA of about $3.3 billion as of November 2025, meaning the stock’s valuation rests on expectations of sharp growth in margins and cash flow over the next three years. [30]
For bullish investors, these numbers are justified by:
- The structural growth in electricity demand from AI, electrification and grid modernization
- A uniquely positioned portfolio that spans gas power, wind services and grid solutions
- Management’s track record of raising and beating guidance since the spin‑off [31]
For skeptics, the concern is straightforward: even small disappointments on orders, margins or FCF could trigger sharp multiple compression when a stock is priced for perfection.
Business Momentum Since November 21: Beyond the Stock Chart
While the user‑visible price chart is off‑limits here, the story behind it matters.
Since November 21, 2025, key developments include:
- Share price progression from the mid‑$550s to the low‑$700s, with occasional pullbacks such as a dip in early December highlighted by Nasdaq’s valuation‑driven note. [32]
- Analyst upgrades and higher targets leading into the investor day, including RBC and BMO moves following strong Q3 results and gas turbine orders. [33]
- Contract wins in offshore grid connections (BalWin5), onshore wind repowering in Taiwan, and continued expansion in grid and transformers via the Prolec GE acquisition. [34]
- Official guidance reset at the investor update, boosting long‑term revenue, margin and FCF forecasts and signaling confidence in demand from AI data centers and grid investment. [35]
This combination of fundamental catalysts and narrative momentum explains why the stock has re‑rated so aggressively since late November.
Key Risks and What Could Go Wrong
Even GE Vernova’s own forward‑looking statements and risk disclosures emphasize that the path ahead isn’t guaranteed. [36]
Important risk themes investors and analysts are watching include:
- Valuation Risk
With high P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, the stock is more vulnerable to sentiment swings and earnings misses than cheaper industrial names. - Execution and Supply‑Chain Challenges
- Complex power projects and large grid contracts carry execution risk.
- The company has flagged ongoing supply‑chain pressures and is working to secure yttrium and other rare earths, but disruptions or cost spikes could hurt margins. [37]
- Wind Segment Drag
GE Vernova still expects its wind business to see declining revenue and segment losses before gradual improvement by 2028, which could offset progress in Power and Electrification if conditions worsen. [38] - Policy and Regulatory Uncertainty
Large portions of the business are exposed to energy policy, grid investment frameworks, and decarbonization incentives around the world. Shifts in government priorities or permitting regimes could affect project timing and profitability. [39] - Macro and Interest‑Rate Sensitivity
Big ticket power equipment, grid projects, and data center expansions are capital‑intensive; slower global growth or higher financing costs could delay investment decisions.
What to Watch Next for GE Vernova Stock
Looking beyond the immediate post‑investor‑day rally, several upcoming checkpoints may shape the next leg of GEV’s stock story:
- Q4 and full‑year 2025 earnings – currently expected late January 2026 – will be the first test of the raised FCF and margin guidance. [40]
- Order intake for gas turbines and grid solutions, especially tied to AI data centers, will show whether management’s long‑term demand thesis is playing out. [41]
- Progress on wind segment losses and early signs of the targeted margin improvement by 2028. [42]
- Integration of Prolec GE and any further M&A in grid, software or advanced technologies such as small modular reactors and carbon capture. [43]
- Any additional analyst rating changes – especially if more firms join the cautious camp, or if upbeat targets like JPMorgan’s $1,000 call gain traction. [44]
Bottom Line
Since November 21, 2025, GE Vernova has evolved from a strong post‑spin‑off performer into a high‑profile AI power infrastructure play, with:
- A 30%+ stock price surge in just a few weeks
- Newly raised revenue, margin and free‑cash‑flow targets out to 2028
- A doubled dividend and expanded $10 billion buyback
- A growing role in AI data center power, offshore wind grids, and global electrification
At the same time, lofty valuation multiples mean expectations are sky‑high. Future returns will likely depend less on new headlines and more on whether GE Vernova can deliver – or exceed – the ambitious cash‑flow and margin profile it just laid out.
References
1. www.ge.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.gevernova.com, 7. www.gevernova.com, 8. www.gevernova.com, 9. www.gevernova.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. renews.biz, 16. www.gevernova.com, 17. www.gevernova.com, 18. www.mining.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.benzinga.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. simplywall.st, 27. finance.yahoo.com, 28. www.gurufocus.com, 29. www.gevernova.com, 30. multiples.vc, 31. www.investopedia.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. renews.biz, 35. www.gevernova.com, 36. www.gevernova.com, 37. finance.yahoo.com, 38. www.gevernova.com, 39. www.gevernova.com, 40. www.investing.com, 41. www.investors.com, 42. www.gevernova.com, 43. www.gevernova.com, 44. www.investing.com
