As of 2:44 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) shares are trading at $662.08, down $5.24 (-0.79%) on the session, with an intraday range of $660.61–$670.00 on about 750K shares.
The broader U.S. market is essentially flat in a holiday-thinned session—SPY is modestly lower, QQQ slightly higher, while DIA and cyclical industrials (XLI) are softer.
For GEV investors, that “quiet tape” matters because the stock has been anything but quiet this month: GE Vernova hit record territory around mid-December after a bullish investor update, and then saw sharp, sentiment-driven swings tied to the market’s evolving “AI power demand” narrative. [1]
Below is what’s moving GE Vernova stock right now—today’s price action, the latest company news and contract wins, Wall Street forecasts, and the key risks to track heading into the next trading session.
GE Vernova stock price right now and what the tape is saying
At $662 late Friday afternoon in New York, GEV is down less than 1%—a move that looks more like normal digestion than a fundamental break, especially given how aggressively the stock has rerated in 2025 on “electrification + AI data centers” expectations. [2]
Two quick context points investors are using to interpret today’s modest pullback:
- The stock’s recent ceiling is high. Barron’s reported GEV closed at a record $723 earlier this month after a major investor-event catalyst, a kind of move that often invites profit-taking and “reset” days. [3]
- GEV has been vulnerable to AI narrative volatility. Barron’s also documented a sharp mid-December selloff tied to market jitters that more energy-efficient AI chips could reduce data-center power demand, even without company-specific bad news. [4]
That combination—big rerating + narrative sensitivity—is why even a small red day can feel louder in GEV than in a typical industrial name.
The core bull case: raised outlook, bigger buybacks, and “electrification supercycle” momentum
1) Investor Update raised the bar for 2026—and the long-term story
GE Vernova’s December investor update was the key catalyst behind the stock’s push to record levels. In its official recap, the company laid out:
- 2025 guidance reaffirmed:$36–$37B revenue, 8%–9% adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow raised to $3.5–$4.0B
- 2026 guidance introduced:$41–$42B revenue, 11%–13% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $4.5–$5.0B free cash flow
- 2028 outlook raised:$52B revenue, 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $22B+ cumulative free cash flow (2025–2028)
- Backlog ambition: grow total backlog from $135B to ~$200B by year-end 2028, including Electrification backlog doubling from $30B to $60B [5]
Importantly, the company noted this outlook excludes the planned acquisition of the remaining 50% of Prolec GE (more on that below). [6]
2) Shareholder returns: dividend doubled, buyback authorization increased
On the same catalyst window, GE Vernova’s board:
- Doubled the quarterly dividend to $0.50/share (from $0.25)
- Set payment terms: payable Feb. 2, 2026 to shareholders of record Jan. 5, 2026
- Increased share repurchase authorization to $10B (from $6B)
- Disclosed $3.3B of authorization had already been spent as of Dec. 3, 2025 [7]
Reuters tied those shareholder-return moves directly to management’s confidence in the demand backdrop and cash generation trajectory. [8]
3) Gas turbines: sold-out slots and an order pipeline powered by data centers
GE Vernova’s gas turbine franchise has become the market’s clearest “AI power demand” expression—and Reuters has provided unusually specific detail:
- GE Vernova expects 80 gigawatts of signed combined-cycle gas turbine contracts by year-end, driven by data-center electricity needs. [9]
- CEO Scott Strazik said the company is sold out through 2028 and has less than 10% of turbine availability left to sell for the following year. [10]
- Reuters also reported GE Vernova signed 18 GW of gas power contracts so far this quarter (versus 8 GW in the first three months of the year). [11]
Utility Dive’s investor-update coverage added operational detail about how GE Vernova is thinking about supply:
- targeting 20 GW annualized turbine production by mid-2026, with potential stretch to 24 GW by mid-2028
- management expectation that reservations could be “sold out through 2030” by end of 2026 (as described by the outlet). [12]
Together, these points help explain why GEV can trade like a “scarcity asset” in power generation equipment.
Fresh company news: new electrification contracts and a wind deal—even amid offshore wind turbulence
One reason GEV is staying in the headlines into late December: new contract announcements that reinforce electrification demand, plus a new onshore wind deal.
Major HVDC contract in India (Adani transmission corridor)
GE Vernova announced its Electrification Systems business received a letter of award from Adani Energy Solutions to supply HVDC technology for a 2.5 GW renewable power transmission corridor in India (Khavda–South Olpad). The company described it as the highest-rated VSC-based HVDC system planned in India to date and said the award is expected to be booked as an order in the first half of 2026. [13]
Grid modernization order booked in India
In another India-focused update, GE Vernova said it booked an order in December 2025 to modernize a key high-voltage transmission link, positioning refurbishment as a cost-effective way for utilities to improve resilience and support renewable integration. [14]
Onshore wind: 42-turbine deal in Australia with services attached
GE Vernova also announced an agreement with Aula Energy to supply 42 of its 6.1 MW “workhorse” turbines for the Carmody’s Hill Wind Farm (256 MW) in South Australia, including a five-year full-service O&M agreement, with the order booked in Q4 2025. [15]
These kinds of updates matter to investors because they show GE Vernova’s story is not only about U.S. gas turbines; it’s also about grid buildout, HVDC transmission, and services, which can be structurally attractive in a multi-year capex cycle.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets, upgrades, and the debate over valuation
Where consensus sits
Analyst aggregators currently show an average/consensus target in the mid-$700s, with notable dispersion between the low and high ends. MarketWatch’s compiled analyst page has an average target around $753 (with dozens of analyst ratings). [16]
Yahoo Finance similarly lists a 1-year target estimate around $755, with a high target reaching $1,000. [17]
The “bull camp”: AI infrastructure buildout is bigger and longer
Investopedia reported that, following the investor-day target raise:
- UBS called the update “very strong” (per Investopedia’s summary of the note)
- William Blair framed GE Vernova as a leader in power infrastructure tied to the AI theme
- Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform with an $855 price target, citing a larger and longer AI infrastructure buildout than expected [18]
Barron’s also highlighted Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith, who has remained bullish with an $830 price target, emphasizing the multi-year growth runway implied by power demand and GE Vernova’s positioning. [19]
The “skeptic camp”: even great companies can be over-owned at the wrong price
The main bear (or caution) argument is not usually “GEV is a bad business.” It’s that the stock may already be pricing in a lot of the long-term growth.
Barron’s framed this sharply:
- GEV trading around 33x estimated 12-month EBITDA, versus about 17x for an average S&P 500 industrial
- the market effectively underwriting years of high growth, which introduces valuation risk if execution or the macro narrative stumbles [20]
In a separate Barron’s piece, Seaport analyst Tom Curran downgraded GEV from Buy to Hold after the post-investor-event surge, arguing risk/reward looked more balanced after the rapid run-up. [21]
Risks investors are weighing right now
1) Offshore wind policy shock: federal pause on five projects
A key near-term headline risk for the broader wind supply chain is the U.S. federal government’s move to suspend leases for five offshore wind projects under construction, citing national security concerns related to radar interference, according to Reuters. [22]
Associated Press reporting names the affected projects, including Vineyard Wind, Revolution Wind, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, Sunrise Wind, and Empire Wind, and describes a 90-day review period. [23]
While GE Vernova’s equity story has been increasingly dominated by Power and Electrification, offshore wind headlines can still create sentiment spillover. RBC, for example, flagged potential delay implications for Vineyard Wind in a note referenced by TheFly/TipRanks. [24]
2) Supply chain and materials constraints
Reuters reported GE Vernova is working with the U.S. government to bolster stockpiles of yttrium, a rare earth used in specialty alloys and coatings in gas turbines, after China export controls contributed to shortages and price spikes outside China. [25]
For investors, this sits in the “watch list” category: constraints don’t have to stop deliveries entirely to pressure margins or timing.
3) Permitting and infrastructure bottlenecks
Even with strong demand, the pace of building new generation can run into permitting and fuel logistics. Reuters cited state and local permitting and pipeline availability as obstacles that can affect how quickly gas-power projects move from intent to execution. [26]
4) Narrative volatility tied to AI power demand
GE Vernova has become a high-profile “picks-and-shovels” beneficiary of AI-era electricity growth—meaning the stock can move on shifts in the market’s AI assumptions, even when GEV-specific fundamentals haven’t changed. Barron’s documented how AI-sector concerns triggered sharp single-day drops across “AI-power ecosystem” names, including GEV. [27]
What to know before the next trading session
Because it’s Friday, the next regular session after today is Monday (barring any exchange schedule changes). Even though trading is still live right now in New York, investors often plan the next session around specific, knowable catalysts:
- Track offshore wind legal and policy developments. AP reported Dominion Energy filed suit and a hearing on its request for a temporary restraining order is scheduled for Monday. Headlines here can ripple into wind-adjacent sentiment even if GEV’s thesis is more power/grid focused. [28]
- Dividend mechanics: the new $0.50 quarterly dividend is payable Feb. 2, 2026 to shareholders of record Jan. 5, 2026—a near-term calendar item some investors position around. [29]
- Earnings timing: several market calendars peg GE Vernova’s next earnings release for late January 2026 (often listed around Jan. 28, 2026, though such dates can be estimates unless the company confirms). [30]
- Order flow follow-through: the new India HVDC award is expected to be booked as an order in 1H 2026, making the first few weeks of 2026 a period where investors watch for conversion from awards/letters into reported backlog and orders. [31]
- Buyback pacing: management has already spent $3.3B of its authorization as of early December, and investors will watch how aggressively repurchases continue after the authorization increase. [32]
Bottom line for GE Vernova investors right now
GE Vernova stock is trading slightly lower today, but the bigger picture remains defined by three forces:
- A raised multi-year financial outlook with aggressive 2026 guidance and a higher 2028 ambition (revenue, margins, and cumulative FCF). [33]
- A demand narrative anchored in real orders—especially gas turbines and grid equipment tied to data-center load growth and electrification. [34]
- A valuation that leaves less room for disappointment, making the stock sensitive to AI sentiment swings, policy shocks in wind, and supply chain friction. [35]
As always, this is an informational overview of public reporting—not investment advice. If you’re managing risk around GEV specifically, the most practical approach is to anchor on (a) backlog conversion, (b) margin delivery vs. the raised targets, and (c) free-cash-flow execution, while treating headlines (AI narratives, offshore wind policy) as volatility drivers rather than the whole thesis.
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.gevernova.com, 6. www.gevernova.com, 7. www.gevernova.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.utilitydive.com, 13. www.gevernova.com, 14. www.gevernova.com, 15. www.gevernova.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. apnews.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. apnews.com, 29. www.gevernova.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.gevernova.com, 32. www.gevernova.com, 33. www.gevernova.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.barrons.com
