GE Vernova Stock Soars After 2025 Investor Update as Company Doubles Dividend and Lifts 2028 Outlook

GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) has just delivered one of the most closely watched investor updates of the year — and the market loves it.

At its 2025 Investor Update in New York on December 9, the energy technology company raised its multi‑year financial targets, doubled its quarterly dividend, and expanded its share buyback authorization. Shares jumped by roughly 9–15% in pre‑market and early trading on December 10, extending a gain of about 90% year‑to‑date and more than 370% since the business was spun out of General Electric in 2024. ^[1]

The stronger outlook is being driven by surging demand for power equipment and grid solutions to support AI‑driven data centers, electrification and the broader energy transition — themes that dominated analyst commentary and media coverage on December 10. ^[2]

Key Takeaways From GE Vernova’s Latest Update

Raised 2028 targets: Management now aims for roughly $52 billion in revenue and about 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, up from prior goals of $45 billion and 14%. ^[3]
Stronger cash generation: The company expects at least $22 billion of cumulative free cash flow from 2025–2028, versus a previous minimum of $14 billion. ^[4]
2026 guidance introduced: For 2026, GE Vernova is targeting $41–$42 billion of revenue, 11–13% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $4.5–$5.0 billion in free cash flow. ^[5]
Dividend and buybacks: The quarterly dividend will double to $0.50 per share from Q1 2026, and the share repurchase authorization rises to $10 billion (up from $6 billion), with $3.3 billion already used. ^[6]
Backlog and orders: Total backlog is expected to grow from about $135 billion today to roughly $200 billion by 2028, including a planned doubling of Electrification backlog from $30 billion to $60 billion. GE Vernova has signed 18 GW of gas turbine contracts this quarter and expects around 80 GW of combined gas‑turbine slot reservations and backlog by year‑end. ^[7]

What Is GE Vernova and Why Does It Matter?

GE Vernova is GE’s energy spin‑off, created in April 2024 when General Electric split into GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts and operates in about 100 countries with roughly 75,000 employees. ^[8]

The business is structured around three core segments:

Power: Gas power, nuclear, hydro and steam power technologies and long‑term services.
Wind: Onshore and offshore wind turbines and blades.
Electrification: Grid solutions, electrification software, power conversion and storage.

These segments are supported by “accelerator” units such as Advanced Research and Consulting Services, which design tailor‑made decarbonization strategies for countries like the UAE, Japan and Vietnam — reflecting GE Vernova’s view that there is no one‑size‑fits‑all route to the energy transition. ^[9]

In short, GE Vernova sits at the intersection of electricity demand growth and decarbonization, two secular trends that are reshaping the global energy system.

Inside the 2025 Investor Update: A Higher Bar for 2026–2028

GE Vernova’s Investor Update on December 9 was all about resetting expectations higher.

Upgraded financial roadmap

Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance, introduced 2026 targets and then lifted its 2028 outlook:

2025 guidance (reaffirmed, slightly improved):
- Revenue: $36–$37 billion, “trending towards the higher end” of the range.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 8–9%.
- Free cash flow: $3.5–$4.0 billion, up from prior guidance of $3.0–$3.5 billion. ^[10]
2026 guidance (new):
- Revenue: $41–$42 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 11–13%.
- Free cash flow: $4.5–$5.0 billion. ^[11]
2028 outlook (raised):
- Revenue: ~$52 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: ~20%.
- Cumulative free cash flow 2025–2028: $22+ billion, up from $14+ billion previously. ^[12]

CEO Scott Strazik framed this as just the “early chapters” of a long value‑creation story, emphasizing that electric power will be central to economic growth in the coming decades and that GE Vernova aims to allocate capital “in a value‑accretive way” while boosting shareholder returns. ^[13]

CFO Ken Parks highlighted that a larger, higher‑margin backlog — driven by services and better pricing on equipment — underpins the upgraded 2028 targets. ^[14]

Backlog: From $135 billion to $200 billion

Backlog is a crucial piece of the puzzle. As of late 2025, GE Vernova’s total backlog stands at around $135 billion, including:

About $54 billion of equipment backlog.
Roughly $81 billion of higher‑margin services backlog (around 60% of the total). ^[15]

Management now plans to grow that figure to approximately $200 billion by year‑end 2028, with Electrification alone expected to double its backlog from $30 billion to $60 billion. ^[16]

For gas turbines — a key growth engine — GE Vernova already has 33 GW of turbines in backlog plus around 29 GW of slot reservation agreements (capacity effectively “spoken for” but not yet booked as orders). ^[17]

This long‑cycle visibility is one reason why several analysts see the updated guidance as more than just an aspirational slide deck.

Segment Outlook: Power and Electrification Lead, Wind Lags

The Investor Update also laid out segment‑level trajectories through 2028. ^[18]

Power: Gas‑fueled growth and service margins

For the Power business, which includes gas turbines and related services:

2025: Organic revenue growth of 6–7% and segment EBITDA margin of 14–15%.
2026: Organic revenue growth accelerates to 16–18% with margins in the 16–18% range.
By 2028: Management is targeting a high‑teens organic revenue CAGR and 22% segment EBITDA margin, up from about 16%. ^[19]

This segment is benefitting from:

A surge in demand for new gas‑fired generation to support AI‑heavy data centers and industrial demand. ^[20]
Strong Q3 2025 performance, where Power orders rose about 50% organically to $7.8 billion, and revenue grew 15% to $4.8 billion. ^[21]

While natural gas is a fossil fuel, GE Vernova argues that high‑efficiency turbines and hydrogen‑ready designs can support both reliability and decarbonization when paired with renewables and future carbon‑capture solutions.

Electrification: Riding the grid and transmission boom

The Electrification segment — which includes grid solutions, software, and power conversion and storage — is positioned as the company’s fastest‑growing business:

2025: Organic revenue is expected to grow around 25%, with segment EBITDA margin of 14–15%.
2026: Growth of roughly 20% and margins rising to 17–19%.
By 2028: Management is aiming for high‑teens organic revenue growth and 22% margins, matching Power. ^[22]

Doubling Electrification’s backlog from $30 billion to $60 billion by 2028 is central to this plan, as utilities and governments invest heavily in grid modernization, transmission lines, and power electronics to handle more renewables and data‑center loads. ^[23]

Wind: Still the problem child

The Wind segment remains GE Vernova’s main headache:

In 2025, organic revenue is expected to decline by high‑single digits, with about $400 million of segment EBITDA losses.
Management expects similar losses in 2026, with organic revenue still down.
Over the period to 2028, the company projects a low double‑digit revenue decline CAGR and segment EBITDA margin of only about 6%, down from 10% previously. ^[24]

Recent numbers underline the challenge:

Q3 2025 Wind revenue fell around 8% to $2.65 billion, partly because the prior year benefited from a roughly $500 million one‑off offshore wind settlement that did not repeat. ^[25]
Full‑year 2025 Wind revenue is now expected to decline in the high‑single digits, versus earlier guidance for a mid‑single‑digit drop. ^[26]

Onshore wind orders have started to recover, and Renewables‑focused coverage notes that this could provide upside if momentum continues. But for now, GE Vernova is effectively asking investors to look through several years of weak Wind profitability in exchange for strength in Power and Electrification. ^[27]

Q3 2025 Results: The Setup for the Guidance Hike

The new guidance didn’t come out of nowhere. GE Vernova’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 22, showed meaningful progress: ^[28]

Revenue: $10.0 billion, up 12% year‑on‑year (10% organically).
Net income: $0.5 billion, for a 4.5% net margin, versus a loss in the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA: $0.8 billion, an 8.1% margin.
Free cash flow: $0.7 billion.
Capital returns: $2.4 billion returned to shareholders year‑to‑date through buybacks and dividends.

At that time, the company reaffirmed 2025 revenue guidance of $36–$37 billion, an 8–9% adjusted EBITDA margin and free cash flow of $3.0–$3.5 billion. ^[29]

Just seven weeks later, management felt confident enough to raise FCF guidance to $3.5–$4.0 billion and layer on much higher targets for 2026 and 2028 — a sign that order momentum, pricing, and backlog visibility have improved further. ^[30]

AI Data Centers and the Electrification Wave

A common thread across today’s coverage is how deeply GE Vernova is tied into the AI boom, not via chips, but via electricity.

Reuters notes that rising demand for its power equipment is being driven by AI and other data‑intensive industries, as data centers look for reliable, dispatchable power. ^[31]
Investor’s Business Daily describes GE Vernova as a leader in the “most important component of the AI theme” — the power and grid infrastructure that keeps data centers running. ^[32]
Trefis argues that the upgraded 2028 guidance transforms GE Vernova from a simple cyclical recovery story into a “structurally higher profit” platform tied to the energy transition, supported by a growing backlog of contracted revenue. ^[33]

Beyond AI, the same infrastructure is needed for:

Electric vehicle charging networks.
Electrification of industrial processes and heating.
Integration of large‑scale solar and wind into national grids.
Growing power needs in fast‑growing economies, where GE Vernova’s consulting arm is designing multi‑decade energy roadmaps. ^[34]

This combination of long‑cycle visibility, policy tailwinds, and technology depth is what underpins the aggressive targets for Power and Electrification.

Managing Supply Chain Risk: The Yttrium Crunch

The bullish demand story comes with its own risks, especially in critical materials.

On December 10, Reuters reported that GE Vernova is working with the U.S. government to bolster stockpiles of the rare earth element yttrium, which is used in high‑temperature components for gas turbines and other advanced applications. ^[35]

Key points from that report:

China imposed export restrictions on yttrium and six other rare earths in April 2025, reacting to U.S. tariffs.
Industries from energy to aerospace and semiconductors have since faced severe shortages, with yttrium prices outside China surging by about 4,400% between January and November 2025.
GE Vernova says it has enough yttrium to last through 2025 and into 2026, and is investing in alternative materials, though potential substitutes may involve cost or performance trade‑offs. ^[36]

That kind of supply risk is explicitly flagged in GE Vernova’s forward‑looking statements, which cite raw‑material availability, supply‑chain disruptions and regulatory changes among the key uncertainties around its guidance. ^[37]

How Wall Street and Analysts Are Responding

The flurry of December 10 research notes and articles point to a broadly positive but valuation‑aware reaction.

Barron’s called the new guidance and capital return plans “enough to please investors,” highlighting the move to $52 billion in 2028 revenue and 20% margins, and noting that the stock was already up about 90% in 2025 before the latest jump. Around 68% of analysts rate GEV a Buy, with an average price target near $689, according to that report. ^[38]
Trefis described GE Vernova as trading at a premium valuation, but argued that the enlarged backlog, improved free‑cash‑flow outlook, and debt‑free balance sheet mean the company can “earn into” that valuation if it executes on its 2028 roadmap. ^[39]
Investor’s Business Daily highlighted that GEV is now among the top 20 performers in the S&P 500 in 2025, with year‑to‑date gains around 90%, and emphasized its role as a key AI‑infrastructure play. ^[40]
24/7 Wall St. reported that Oppenheimer upgraded GE Vernova to Outperform with a $855 price target, joining a wave of bullish calls following the Investor Update. ^[41]
Market snippets indicate that J.P. Morgan has set a Street‑high $1,000 target price, reinforcing the idea that some analysts still see significant upside even after the latest rally. ^[42]

At the same time, several analyses caution that:

Current operating margins are still low, around the mid‑single digits, so there is considerable execution risk in moving toward a 20% EBITDA margin. ^[43]
The Wind segment continues to generate losses and could remain a drag well into the decade if offshore project economics and policy support do not improve. ^[44]

Overall, though, the consensus tone on December 10 is that GE Vernova has strengthened the credibility of its long‑term plan and reinforced its status as a core “picks and shovels” play on the electrification and AI power themes.

What It Means for Investors and the Energy Transition

From an energy‑system perspective, GE Vernova’s update underscores a few big themes:

Electricity demand is re‑accelerating. AI, electrification and data‑center growth are pushing power demand higher in both mature and emerging markets. GE Vernova’s upgraded targets assume that this trend persists — and that utilities and governments follow through with grid and generation investment. ^[45]
Gas plus renewables remains the dominant bridge. The company’s backlog and gas‑turbine slot reservations show that, in practice, countries are pairing large‑scale renewables with efficient gas plants and advanced grid technology, rather than leaping straight to 100% renewables. ^[46]
Grid and electrification businesses are becoming profit engines. The plan to move Electrification margins into the low‑20% range by 2028, with a doubled backlog, signals that grid equipment and software could become as central to GE Vernova’s earnings power as gas turbines. ^[47]
Wind is still a wild card. Structurally lower margins and revenue declines in Wind highlight the unevenness of the energy transition, where policy, permitting and project economics can swing quickly. ^[48]

For equity investors, whether GE Vernova is attractive at current levels depends on individual risk tolerance, time horizon and views on these themes. The stock is no longer cheap on traditional metrics, but the combination of upgraded guidance, a growing backlog, a debt‑light balance sheet and a more generous dividend and buyback program explains why many on Wall Street still see room for further gains. ^[49]

What is clear as of December 10, 2025 is that GE Vernova has moved from being “the GE energy spin‑off” to a central, standalone player in the global energy transition — and one of the clearest pure‑play ways to invest in the massive build‑out of power and grid infrastructure required for the AI age.