GE Vernova Stock Soars to Record High on AI Power Boom, Dividend Hike and $10 Billion Buyback

GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) stock is surging to fresh record highs on December 10, 2025, after the S&P 500 energy technology company raised its long‑term outlook, doubled its dividend and expanded its share repurchase program. The move comes as Wall Street increasingly views GE Vernova as one of the purest plays on the global electrification and AI‑driven data center power boom. ^[1]

GE Vernova stock today: record high and huge year‑to‑date gains

As of mid‑day trading on December 10, GE Vernova shares were trading around the high‑$600s to low‑$700s, up roughly 11–14% on the day and setting new all‑time highs. One real‑time quote service showed the stock near $696, up 11.3%, while another reported about $709, up more than 13% in morning trading. ^[2]

Since its spin‑off from General Electric in March 2024 and addition to the S&P 500, GE Vernova has become one of the index’s standout performers:

More than 370% share price gain since the March 2024 spin‑off. ^[3]
About 90% gain in 2025 alone, placing it among the top performing S&P 500 stocks this year, according to recent coverage from Investor’s Business Daily and MarketWatch. ^[4]
GE Vernova now sits inside the S&P 500 with a weight of roughly 0.3% of the index and a live price around $694, up 11% on the day on one popular S&P 500 compilation. ^[5]

That breathtaking run is the backdrop for today’s move: investors are rewarding a powerful combination of higher guidance, richer shareholder returns and growing exposure to AI‑driven electricity demand.

Inside the 2025 Investor Update: big guidance lift, bigger shareholder payouts

On December 9, 2025, GE Vernova held its 2025 Investor Update in New York and significantly raised its multi‑year financial outlook while sweetening capital returns. ^[6]

Upgraded revenue, margin and free cash flow outlook

Key points from the company’s updated guidance:

2025 guidance (reaffirmed, with higher free cash flow):
- Revenue: $36–37 billion, trending toward the high end of the range
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 8–9%
- Free cash flow (FCF): $3.5–4.0 billion, raised from a prior $3.0–3.5 billion
2026 guidance (new):
- Revenue: $41–42 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 11–13%
- Free cash flow: $4.5–5.0 billion
2028 outlook (raised):
- Revenue target now $52 billion, up from a previous $45 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin target 20%, up from 14%
- Cumulative free cash flow at least $22 billion from 2025–2028, up from at least $14 billion previously

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The updated plan implies low‑double‑digit organic revenue growth through 2028 and a dramatic uplift in profitability as the business mix tilts toward higher‑margin service and grid solutions.

Doubling the dividend and boosting the buyback to $10 billion

For income and total‑return investors, the headline news was in capital allocation:

Quarterly dividend doubled from $0.25 to $0.50 per share, starting with the first‑quarter 2026 payment (payable February 2, 2026, to shareholders of record January 5). ^[8]
Share repurchase authorization increased to $10 billion from $6 billion; GE Vernova has already used $3.3 billion of that authorization as of early December 2025. ^[9]

For a company with a market cap in the roughly $170–190 billion range, depending on the intraday price, a $10 billion buyback program is meaningful and could provide ongoing support to earnings per share and the share price over time. ^[10]

Segment‑level outlook: Power and Electrification lead, Wind lags

Management also laid out a multi‑year view by business segment, highlighting where growth and margins are expected to come from: ^[11]

Power
- 2025: 6–7% organic revenue growth; 14–15% segment EBITDA margin
- 2026: 16–18% organic revenue growth; 16–18% margin
- 2028: high‑teens organic revenue CAGR; 22% segment EBITDA margin
Electrification (grid, conversion, storage, software)
- 2025: trending toward 25% organic revenue growth; 14–15% margin
- 2026: ~20% organic revenue growth; 17–19% margin
- 2028: high‑teens organic revenue CAGR; 22% margin
Wind
- 2025 & 2026: revenue down and continued segment losses (around $400 million in 2025)
- By 2028: revenue declining at a low‑double‑digit rate with margins improving to about 6%, but still far below the other segments

Management expects the Power and Electrification segments to drive the lion’s share of growth and profits, while Wind remains a turnaround — a key risk factor investors should watch.

Q3 2025 earnings: revenue beat, EPS miss, margins strengthening

The Investor Update builds on solid third‑quarter 2025 results released on October 22:

Total Q3 revenue: $9.97 billion, up 12% year‑over‑year, and about 9% above Wall Street’s $9.16 billion consensus. ^[12]
EPS: $1.64, below estimates of $1.86, an 11–12% miss relative to consensus. ^[13]
Organic revenue growth: about 10% for the quarter. ^[14]
Adjusted EBITDA: $811 million versus $243 million a year earlier, reflecting a steep improvement in profitability. ^[15]

Segment detail underscores why many analysts are leaning bullish:

Power: revenue up 15% to $4.8 billion, with segment EBITDA margin improving to 13.3%. ^[16]
Electrification: revenue up 35% to $2.6 billion, segment margin jumping from 10.4% to 15.1%. ^[17]
Wind: revenue down 8%; segment still loss‑making but with a much smaller negative margin (about –2.3% versus –11% a year ago). ^[18]

Despite the EPS miss, the strong top‑line growth, expanding margins in Power and Electrification, and improved but still challenged Wind business helped build confidence ahead of the Investor Update.

AI, data centers and the electrification super‑cycle

The central narrative powering GEV’s rally is that electrification and AI are converging in a way that structurally boosts demand for GE Vernova’s technologies.

Recent reporting from Reuters and Investors Business Daily highlights several themes: ^[19]

AI‑enabled data centers and cloud infrastructure are driving surging demand for reliable, dispatchable power (e.g., gas turbines) and for advanced grid solutions to handle load growth and variability.
GE Vernova expects gas turbine output to reach about 20 gigawatts (GW) by mid‑2026 and around 24 GW by 2028, and says production slots are essentially sold out through 2028, with visibility potentially extending into 2030. ^[20]
The company sees its order backlog growing from roughly $135 billion to about $200 billion by 2028, with backlog in electrification expected to double from $30 billion to $60 billion. ^[21]

At the same time, GE Vernova is positioning itself as a technology platform for the energy transition, investing in:

Small modular nuclear reactors
Carbon capture solutions
Solid oxide fuel cells
Grid technologies to support renewables and data centers

^[22]

These long‑cycle projects are intended to underpin growth beyond 2028, though they also come with execution and regulatory risk.

Yttrium and supply chain risk: working with the U.S. government

A notable detail from this week’s news cycle is GE Vernova’s exposure to the rare earth element yttrium, used in specialty alloys and high‑temperature coatings in gas turbines.

CEO Scott Strazik told investors the company is working with the U.S. government to boost yttrium stockpiles, following Chinese export restrictions. ^[23]
GE Vernova currently has enough yttrium to cover the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and is investing in alternative materials, though substitutes may involve cost or performance trade‑offs. ^[24]
Yttrium prices outside China have reportedly soared by about 4,400% between January and November 2025, underscoring the severity of the supply shock. ^[25]

This is both a risk and a differentiator: the company’s proactive approach may insulate it from the worst of the disruption, but it highlights how critical raw materials and geopolitics could affect margins and project timelines.

Analyst reaction on December 10: price targets race to catch up

Wall Street has been scrambling to update models after the Investor Update. Multiple firms raised price targets on December 10 or in the immediate aftermath:

Bank of America
- Reaffirmed a bullish rating and raised its price target from $725 to $804, citing the jump in 2028 revenue and margin guidance and a backlog expected to reach about $200 billion. ^[26]
JPMorgan
- Set a headline‑grabbing $1,000 price target, framing GE Vernova as a premier way to play AI‑driven power demand and the electrification cycle. Coverage notes that the average Street target has climbed to about $724, up roughly $33 since the Investor Update. ^[27]
UBS
- Lifted its target from $760 to $835, one of the highest on the Street, while maintaining a bullish stance. ^[28]
RBC Capital Markets
- Upgraded GE Vernova from “Sector Perform” to “Outperform” and raised its target to around $761 (from $630), arguing that the new outlook leaves room for further upside. ^[29]
Other firms (Susquehanna, BMO, Barclays, Morgan Stanley)
- Recent target raises shown in consensus data include:
  - $750 → $775 (Susquehanna)
  - $710 → $780 (BMO Capital)
  - $710 → $720 (Barclays)
  - $690 → $710 (Morgan Stanley) ^[30]

In short: virtually every major covering analyst is positive on the story, and several now see 12‑month upside even after the latest rally.

Street forecasts and valuation: how expensive is GE Vernova stock?

Consensus numbers help put the current share price into context.

Revenue and EPS forecasts

According to a compilation of Wall Street estimates: ^[31]

2025 revenue: about $37.7 billion, up 7.8% from 2024
2026 revenue: about $41.8 billion, up nearly 11% from 2025
2025 EPS: around $7.29, up roughly 31% year‑over‑year
2026 EPS: about $12.73, implying ~75% EPS growth versus 2025

These Street forecasts, compiled before and immediately after the Investor Update, broadly align with the company’s own guidance ranges, though some analysts may still be updating their models.

Consensus rating and price target

Analyst rating: overall consensus is “Buy”, with 24 analysts covered in one major aggregation, and a mix skewed toward Strong Buy/Buy rather than Hold or Sell. ^[32]
Average 12‑month price target: about $636.67, with a range from $380 (low) to $804 (high). ^[33]

With the stock now trading close to or above $700, GE Vernova is already above the current consensus target, even though a subset of firms (like BofA, UBS and JPMorgan) see further upside.

Valuation metrics

On trailing fundamental metrics, GE Vernova screens as expensive:

Price‑to‑earnings (P/E): around 115x
Price‑to‑sales (P/S): roughly 5.2x
Price‑to‑book (P/B): about 22x

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Forward earnings multiples fall significantly if analysts are right about EPS ramping into 2026–2027, but this is still a high‑expectation, high‑multiple stock relative to many industrial and utility peers.

Key risks investors should watch

Despite the powerful story and positive momentum, GE Vernova stock carries several notable risks:

Rich valuation and expectation risk
- At triple‑digit trailing P/E and a premium EV/EBITDA multiple versus traditional power equipment peers, the stock bakes in strong execution and continued growth. Any stumble on earnings, cash flow or order growth could trigger sharp volatility. ^[35]
Raw material and supply chain exposure
- Reliance on rare earths like yttrium exposes GE Vernova to geopolitical and commodity price risk, even with current inventory levels and government cooperation. If alternative materials prove more expensive or lower‑performing, margins could be pressured. ^[36]
Policy and regulatory uncertainty
- The business depends on long‑term policy support for decarbonization, grid upgrades and nuclear or carbon‑capture projects. Changes in government priorities, tax incentives or permitting regimes could delay or shrink parts of the backlog. ^[37]
Wind segment turnaround risk
- While losses have narrowed, the Wind segment is still burning money, and the multi‑year outlook calls for shrinking revenue and only mid‑single‑digit margins by 2028. If offshore or onshore wind markets remain more challenging than expected, it could drag on consolidated returns. ^[38]
Cyclicality and interest‑rate sensitivity
- Large infrastructure projects are sensitive to financing costs and macro conditions. Even with secular AI and electrification demand, a sharp economic slowdown or tighter credit conditions could impact orders and project timing. ^[39]

For investors, the key question is whether GE Vernova’s growth, margins and cash generation can compound fast enough to justify — and eventually grow into — its premium valuation.

What could move GE Vernova stock next?

Looking beyond today’s rally, several catalysts and signposts are likely to matter for GEV:

Quarterly earnings updates in 2026
- Investors will focus on whether revenue, margin and FCF stay within or above the new guidance ranges. Any hint of upward revisions could support the stock; shortfalls could test the bull case.
Backlog growth and visibility
- Street models increasingly assume backlog rising toward $200 billion by 2028. Progress toward that figure — especially in Power and Electrification — will be watched closely. ^[40]
Yttrium and supply chain developments
- News around rare earth export controls, alternative materials and U.S. stockpile initiatives could affect sentiment and margin expectations. ^[41]
Policy signals on AI data centers and grid investment
- Regulatory frameworks for data center build‑outs, transmission expansion and nuclear or carbon‑capture incentives may influence both project volumes and the pace of electrification.
Further analyst revisions
- Consensus targets are still catching up to the latest Investor Update. Additional upgrades or downgrades — particularly from high‑profile firms — could create short‑term trading opportunities. ^[42]

Is GE Vernova stock a buy now?

From a high‑level, non‑personalized perspective:

Bullish investors point to:
- A unique position at the intersection of AI, electrification and energy transition
- A rapidly growing backlog with visibility out to 2028 and beyond
- Rising margins and free cash flow, supporting a doubling of the dividend and a $10 billion buyback
- Strong institutional ownership and broad analyst support with targets running as high as $835–$1,000 per share
More cautious investors focus on:
- The premium valuation versus peers
- Execution and raw‑material risks
- The underperforming Wind segment
- Sensitivity to macro conditions and policy changes

Whether GE Vernova is appropriate for any particular portfolio depends on individual risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification needs. Investors considering GEV should review the company’s latest filings, listen to recent earnings and Investor Day webcasts, and — ideally — consult a qualified financial adviser before making decisions.