Updated December 11, 2025
Gemini Space Station, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI), the publicly listed owner of the Gemini crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is back in the spotlight after winning a crucial U.S. license to run prediction markets — and sparking a double‑digit after‑hours rally, even as the stock remains deeply below its September IPO price. [1]
Below is a structured look at the latest news, analyst forecasts, and risk factors around GEMI as of December 11, 2025.
Gemini Space Station stock today: price action around the license news
As of early afternoon on December 11, Gemini Space Station shares trade around $11.36, down slightly on the day and roughly flat versus Wednesday’s close. [2]
The calm intraday tape hides a wild 24 hours:
- On December 10, Gemini announced that its affiliate Gemini Titan, LLC received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing it to offer prediction markets to U.S. customers. [3]
- Shortly after the announcement, Reuters reported that GEMI jumped about 10.8% in extended trading, noting that the stock had already fallen to less than half of its IPO price before the news. [4]
- In the early hours of December 11, Benzinga highlighted a roughly 13.7% after‑hours surge to about $12.92, as traders reacted to the license and a strongly pro‑crypto tone from CEO Tyler Winklevoss, who publicly thanked President Trump and the CFTC’s acting chair for supporting the industry. [5]
Despite that spike, the stock has cooled back near Wednesday’s regular‑session close, underscoring just how volatile early‑stage crypto IPOs can be.
From a bigger‑picture standpoint, GEMI now trades roughly 60% below its $28 IPO price and around 70% below its first‑day high near $37, reached during its Nasdaq debut in September. [6]
What the CFTC prediction‑markets license actually does
Gemini’s new DCM license is the central driver of this week’s move.
According to the company’s own press release, Gemini Titan can now list “event contracts” for U.S. customers — essentially binary yes/no bets on real‑world outcomes, such as: [7]
- “Will 1 bitcoin finish the year above $200,000?”
- “Will Elon Musk’s X pay the full €140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?”
Key details from Gemini’s announcement and Reuters’ coverage:
- Gemini first applied for a DCM license on March 10, 2020, making this the end of a five‑year regulatory grind. [8]
- U.S. customers will initially access prediction markets via Gemini’s web interface, with mobile support “coming soon.” [9]
- Gemini plans to expand into crypto derivatives for U.S. users — including futures, options and perpetual swaps — if regulators allow it. [10]
- Leadership is framing prediction markets as potentially “as big or bigger than traditional capital markets,” positioning Gemini as a “super app” for finance. [11]
The move drops Gemini directly into competition with other players racing into the same niche:
- Fanatics has already announced its own push into prediction markets.
- Robinhood and Susquehanna have teamed up via their acquisition of LedgerX to build a foothold in the space. [12]
Meanwhile, Benzinga notes that rivals Polymarket and Kalshi already dominate over 90% of the existing prediction‑market industry by volume, even as some of their sports‑related contracts face state‑level legal challenges over whether they constitute unlicensed online gambling. [13]
In short: the license is a real competitive upgrade for Gemini — but not a monopolistic one.
Fundamentals check: rapid revenue growth, heavy losses
Beneath the licensing headlines, Gemini’s financials remain high‑growth but deeply loss‑making.
From recent filings and data services:
- In Q3 2025, Gemini generated about $50.6 million in revenue, up roughly 49% year over year.
- Over the same quarter, it reported a net loss of about $159.5 million, widening sharply versus last year. [14]
- That Q3 result followed a Q2 2025 net loss of roughly $141 million on about $34 million in revenue, highlighting a pattern of aggressive spending relative to current scale. [15]
A Barron’s summary of the Q3 report (published in mid‑November) emphasized that the loss surprised analysts to the downside, largely due to high marketing and operating expenses for Gemini’s crypto rewards credit card, even as card usage and user numbers continued to climb. [16]
Zooming out:
- For full‑year 2024, Gemini posted revenue of around $142.2 million and a net loss of about $165.8 million, with total assets of roughly $1.59 billion, according to public company data compiled on Gemini’s Wikipedia entry and filings. [17]
The pattern is familiar for high‑growth fintech and crypto names: revenue is scaling quickly, but the company is spending heavily on customer acquisition, product build‑out and regulatory compliance, with profitability still far on the horizon.
Stock performance since the IPO: from blockbuster debut to deep drawdown
When Gemini floated in September, enthusiasm was intense:
- The IPO priced at $28 per share, above an already‑raised range of $24–$26.
- The deal raised about $425 million, valuing Gemini at roughly $3.3 billion, and included a $50 million private placement from Nasdaq itself. [18]
- On debut, the stock opened at $37.01, a pop of more than 30% versus the IPO price, with coverage dubbing it a “blockbuster” win for crypto listings. [19]
Then the hangover hit:
- Since mid‑September, GEMI has lost well over half its value, driven by mounting losses, a shaky post‑IPO tape, and sector‑wide volatility. [20]
- Data from Longbridge and other feeds show that the stock printed a 12‑month low in late November, just weeks after its Q3 report. [21]
Wednesday night’s rally on the license news is therefore as much about relief as it is about fundamentals: investors finally have a clear, positive catalyst instead of just bigger losses.
Analyst ratings and GEMI stock forecasts
Despite the drawdown, Wall Street remains broadly constructive on Gemini Space Station, though price targets have drifted lower as the stock has fallen.
Across several analyst‑tracking platforms:
- StockAnalysis.com shows 8 analysts covering GEMI with an overall “Buy” rating and a consensus price target of about $24.25, implying upside of roughly 110% from around $11.36. [22]
- MarketBeat aggregates 13 analysts with an average 12‑month target around $26.55, with a high of $41 and a low of $15, suggesting upside of more than 130% from current levels. [23]
- Zacks reports a shorter‑term set of targets from 10 analysts averaging roughly $23.70, with a range from about $15 to $35. [24]
- MLQ.ai, which summarizes broker research using AI, highlights a “Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month target of about $27.36, with the highest target near $42 and the lowest around $15. [25]
- GuruFocus similarly cites an average around $26.70 based on 10 analysts, with a high of $35 and a low in the mid‑teens. [26]
In other words, most broker models cluster in the mid‑$20s, with a realistic range of roughly $15–$42 over the next 12 months. Taken at face value, that implies triple‑digit percentage upside from today’s depressed price — but with wide disagreement on how much pain investors will endure first.
Recent target cuts show a more cautious tone
This optimism is tempered by a wave of recent target reductions:
- Cantor Fitzgerald has cut its target from $37 to $25 while maintaining a Buy rating. [27]
- Goldman Sachs has repeatedly trimmed its target, most recently from $19 to $17, keeping a Hold stance. [28]
- Evercore ISI has reduced its target from $30 to $15, still rating the stock Buy but signalling a much more conservative upside profile. [29]
- Other brokers including Truist, Needham, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Rosenblatt still see large upside but have also nudged targets lower as the stock has slid. [30]
The take‑away: analysts mostly like the story, but they’re clearly wrestling with the tension between fast revenue growth, mounting losses, and execution risk around new products like prediction markets.
Short‑term trading outlook: technicals, volatility and short interest
While fundamental analysts see long‑term upside, quantitative and technical services are much more cautious on the near term:
- Technical forecaster StockInvest.us currently flags GEMI as sitting in the middle of a “very wide and falling” short‑term trend and estimates the stock could decline by roughly 60% over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between about $3 and $5 at the end of that period. [31]
- Data from base.report shows short interest of about 5.8 million shares, or roughly 24% of the free float, with a market cap near $2 billion and 42 million shares outstanding. [32]
- The stock’s recent trading range has been wide: a 20‑day range of roughly $9.67–$14.28 and a 50‑day range stretching up to about $26.75, reflecting the post‑IPO volatility. [33]
That combination — high short interest, fresh catalysts and a thin operating history — sets the stage for sharp squeezes in both directions. Short‑term traders should assume that GEMI can move quickly and violently on news, especially around regulatory developments and crypto‑market swings.
Regulatory overhang: past cases still shape the risk profile
Gemini’s new license arrives against a backdrop of heavy regulatory scrutiny over the past few years:
- In 2022, the CFTC sued Gemini over alleged misstatements related to bitcoin futures contracts; Gemini settled the case in January 2025 for about $5 million, without admitting wrongdoing. [34]
- In 2023, New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Gemini, Genesis, and Digital Currency Group over the Gemini Earn lending program, alleging that about 230,000 investors were misled and seeking over $3 billion in restitution. [35]
- In March 2024, Gemini reached a settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services, agreeing to refund at least $1.1 billion to Earn customers and pay a $37 million fine. [36]
Although these legacy issues are gradually getting resolved, they underscore how tightly entangled Gemini is with regulators worldwide. The new CFTC license is a sign that relations can also move in a more constructive direction, but the possibility of future enforcement actions or rule changes is an ongoing risk factor for GEMI stock.
How the business is positioned now
Despite the turbulence, Gemini has built a sizable platform:
- It operates a global crypto exchange and custody platform serving individuals and institutions in over 60 countries, offering spot trading, staking, stablecoins, an OTC desk, NFT infrastructure, and a U.S. credit card. [37]
- In Europe it has expanded via licenses under the MiCA framework and moved its regional headquarters from Dublin to Malta in early 2025. [38]
The prediction‑markets business slots neatly into this suite: it leverages the existing customer base, wallet infrastructure and risk systems, and potentially offers higher‑margin, data‑rich products compared with plain‑vanilla crypto spot trading.
Is Gemini Space Station (GEMI) stock a buy, sell or hold after December 11, 2025?
Putting it all together:
- Bullish case
- New CFTC DCM license opens up a regulated prediction‑markets franchise and a plausible future derivatives business in the United States. [39]
- Revenue is growing quickly (about 50% year‑on‑year in Q3 2025), and GEMI now trades far below its IPO price. [40]
- Wall Street consensus is still firmly “Buy”, with average targets in the mid‑$20s — more than double the current share price. [41]
- Bearish case
- Losses are very large and still widening, with Q3 2025 net loss near $160 million on only about $50 million in revenue. [42]
- Several top banks have cut price targets sharply in the last month, signalling lower conviction in the near‑term path. [43]
- Technical and algorithmic models now project the possibility of sub‑$5 prices in a bearish scenario over the next quarter, and short interest around one‑quarter of the float shows many traders are betting against the stock. [44]
Bottom line:
As of December 11, 2025, Gemini Space Station is a high‑beta, high‑uncertainty crypto infrastructure play. The new prediction‑markets license is arguably the most positive catalyst since the IPO and could materially change the company’s growth narrative if execution goes well. But heavy losses, regulatory complexity, and extreme volatility mean GEMI remains suitable only for investors who are comfortable with speculative, crypto‑linked risk and who can tolerate large price swings and long timelines.
References
1. www.globenewswire.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.globenewswire.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.benzinga.com, 14. base.report, 15. base.report, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. en.wikipedia.org, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. nypost.com, 20. base.report, 21. longbridge.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.zacks.com, 25. mlq.ai, 26. www.gurufocus.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. stockinvest.us, 32. base.report, 33. base.report, 34. en.wikipedia.org, 35. en.wikipedia.org, 36. en.wikipedia.org, 37. base.report, 38. en.wikipedia.org, 39. www.globenewswire.com, 40. base.report, 41. stockanalysis.com, 42. base.report, 43. stockanalysis.com, 44. stockinvest.us
